Member Info for RuckRover

As I said, we have maintained a range 6.2-7.2 with a backdrop of a placing of 5.5. With every other placing, the market price has dropped to or below the placing price (and subsequently even lower)
This one is different, if people have sold on the hope of getting “extras” at 5.5 and they don’t get them, there may be a scramble to buy back in. So I expect us to hit 10p quite soon and a trading range established in the 9-11p range. This is why it will be interest to get the Trinity Delta update. Will they up their valuation of Scancell from £74.2m or lower their SP estimate.

Ray,
Technically LD is a doctor as she has a PHD. It is customary to use the higher title where one has many, in this case professor. Professor tends to be used in education more than industry.

Inan,
When you said the SP is a joke, we’re you referring to the 12.25p quoted in the article or the current 7p?
I think the fact that we have been able to maintain 7p against the backdrop of a large 5.5p placing suggests it is ready to rise once it’s all done and dusted. I positive AGM and presentation (even some news on progress) should this hit 10p very soon. AIMO of course.

Ray,
It’s either prof Durrant or doctor Doolittle.
It’s rather like talking to the animals here sometimes!

Bunsie,
Not a lot otherwise you wouldn’t be here posting to us lot.
That’s logic, not mind reading :)

Thanks LL,
It’s my wife’s birthday on Tuesday. As we have a lot of family it will be relay visits one household at a time, timeslots have been allocated already!

Bunsie, Ivy,
Many thanks for the kind words.

Bunsie,
You haven’t been paying attention lol! We haven’t been to shops for 4 months so..

Friday night fish and chips Is now on Tuesday when the chip van parks outside our house.
Sunday lunch is now Monday evening as the shopping comes too late.
Saturday out at the George is now Saturday in at the Gaz.

No wine tonight as can’t have any with the new painkillers - Ivy if you’re reading - Amitriptyline.
Looking forward the cup final tomorrow.

Bunsie,
In the grand scheme of things it doesn’t I guess. Hopefully the effects of dilution will be eclipsed by the steady move of the SP towards a true value. I think it is important we have some realistic idea of what that true value might be and an honest assessment of how dilution will affect the value of our slice of the cake.

Yes C7,
Never been more optimistic about the prospects with such a substantial sum of money behind us.
I hope Willian has recovered and plays - I put him in my dream team just for this final. I also put in Aubameyang (as a hedge!)
ATB.

Inan,
Stick to the science!

Inan,
I’m not on about the share price, we both hope this doesn’t represent the true value of Scancell.

Inan,
We can call it what we like. The fact remains, when the notes are converted, another 90m shares will be admitted onto the AIM market - a further 12.5% Dilution.

So basically it’s just deferred dilution.

What has it included?

And you don’t think they will need to account for £6m convertible loan notes any where on the balance sheet?

Stakis,
OK, got you - sometimes the big errors are harder to spot lol.

Stakis,

I can’t follow how you got 363.3m but the figure is certainly more than 36m + 36m.
There is also the 90m bought by Redmile so in round number about 162m.

That doesn’t take into account the convertible loan notes another 90m. So still no where near your 363m!

This is the big flaw in Inan’s equation. He wants to add £15m to the balance sheet (even though the NET proceeds are only £14m) not taking into account that £6m will either have to be paid back OR converted resulting in FURTHER dilution (albeit at a slightly better 6.2p rather than 5.5p.

Extract from the TD fund raise note...
“ Trinity Delta view: The size of the fund raise provides sufficient resources for Scancell to pursue the clinical opportunities it has. We detailed these in our recent Outlook note (May 2020) and outlined our belief that Scancell was under-funded relative to the size and scope of these clinical opportunities. In line with our policy, we suspend our valuation and forecasts with the aim of reinstating updated values as soon as practicable. For context, our previous valuation was £72.4m, equivalent to 15.6p a share. We reiterate that there are various likely share catalysts over the coming year including: further AvidiMab collaborations, the SCIB1 UK/US trial being underway, and the initiation of enrolment of the first SCIB2 and Moditope studies.”

It will be interesting to see whether they increase the £72.4 million valuation to mitigate the effects of dilution or they keep it the same and set a 10p target. I suppose they could be sneaky and add the £14m to the value, that would only see it drop to 13.7.

Any views?

Moonparty,
You are right, there are no “safe” stocks at moment. If you are going to take on high risk it might as well be one that could produce a high reward.