Member Info for RuckRover

LL,
Now it’s the weekend a slightly off topic..
My wife and I have many happy memories of rest and be thankful from our several lochs and glens coach holidays. Travelled the old military road many times getting to the Ardgarten hotel.
Enjoy your evening and weekend.

Despite what it appears, I certainly didn’t mean it to be a red rag to anyone at all.
I was attempting to bring a bit of humour and highlight some common ground.
I’m off the Amiltriptiline and back on the wine, feel a lot better already.
Pizza night for us, home made with a bottle of Barossa Ink. Curry night tomorrow, so enjoy your fish and chips With curry tonight. Have you tried Schwartz Katsu curry sauce? Just like Chinese
chippy sauce.
ATB

Stakis,
We’ve forgotten what full strength orange tastes like and think the diluted stuff is OK.
Each to their own as far a target prices, for me it’s 13.3p so I break even (not counting the lost opportunities elsewhere the past 8 years)
Whilst TD provide some good information, we all agree that a coin toss will either be a head or a tail and not 20% head, 80% tail. So it will either succeed or fail, not partially succeed.

Stakes,
From a share price perspective, I don’t think it matters. I think the SP may well rise on expectation.
The adage “buy on rumour, sell on fact” springs to mind.

Knowlesi,
I agree with ratty that it is untrue but wouldn’t Go as far as saying “shameful”.
I often challenge the ultra-positive view without vitriol. It’s the way you tell it.

Ray,
You tell me the probability of the following and I’ll give you odds on an accumulator bet.

Pep Guardiola becoming Burnley manager
Burnley winning the premier league
Burnley winning the FA cup
Burnley signing Lionel Messi

In the next Twelve months!

Ray,
Just a night? I make it 8 years!

Due to unforeseen circumstances (an offer of £8 per share) ......

Ray, et al,
I’ll tell you a funny true story.....
A few years back I lived in Evesham and plastered all over town were posters advertising a clairvoyant appearing for one evening.
A few days later they were stamped “cancelled.... due to unforeseen circumstances”
You couldn’t make it up!

Ray,
Right, we agree on that but I never suggested adding them in the first place.

Ray,
Sorry, but you do have to compound (not add) probabilities in order to work out the probability of a number of events occurring - like accumulators in betting.

Adding a 50% chance for the first throw to the 50% chance and getting 100% in a fundamental mistake.
In two throws, there are 4 possible outcomes HH,HT,TH,TT.
Only one of the possibilities Does not include a head, therefore the chance of throwing a head in two throws is 75% (3 out of 4).

My post was correcting Knowlesi claim that failure was “likely” based on the TD percentages. Statistically, the TD percentages give you an evens 48/52 chance. I never said I agreed with the TD percentages, merely pointing out the correct maths.

Off to have tea now, but if you need another example I’ll do one with Burnley in an accumulator.
I’d love to be your bookie lol!

Inan,
The primary...
Sorry, there’s no other way of putting it, it’s anal.

Inan,
“Scib1 does work ...
rewrite the numbers”

1) we don’t know for sure that SCIB1 will pass phase 3 and get to marke
2) if it does work, multiply the TD figure by 5 (as they have only rated it at 20%)
Hang on, you’ve got that dodgy calculator, let me do it for you...
3.8p x 5 = 19p

So Scancell would be worth over twice today’s SP on SCIB1 alone.

On a different note, one of my friends has just been diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma. It has spread to his liver. Do you see this on the list of Scancell targets in the future?

Morning C7,
Glad to see you back and posting. Too busy replying to Knowlesi to see you already have.
Hope you are dealing OK with whatever you need to deal with.

Knowlesi,
“Absolute hope not but trinity delta's probabilities of commercial success suggest most likely scenario is failure.”

I’m not sure I would say failure is the “most likely” scenario.
The chances of success are 20, 15, 15, and 10.
Therefore the chances of failure are 80, 85, 85, 90.
So the chance of them ALL (sorry about the caps Inan) failing is 52%. So an evens bet that at least one will work and is 5 to 10 times the value TD have calculated. I think that’s reasonable odds.

A good example of probability of events NOT happening - like if you have a group of 23 people there is a 50/50 chance that 2 will Share a birthday.

Bojo,
I first bought on 25 July 2012, price paid 12.07.

Barbel,
It’s a shame we have to spend more time working out what people mean than discussing the point.

Morning Wild,
How nice to have your measured and polite insights back! I was at Charmouth last year, only found a few belemnites but in previous years plenty of ammonites as well. It is quite moving to hold in your hand something that lived and breathed 190 million years ago.
Great fish and chips there as well, not quite as old.

It is always easy to pick a point in time and compare it to another point in time.
For example you could compare Scancell in August 2012 to July 2012 and claimed you said it would rice. You could compare March 2019 with August 2012 and claim you knew it would go down. Same with July 2020 and August 2020.

Like you, I am in this for the long haul. We won’t know who was right and who was wrong until it has run its course. Along the way, some may trade and claim small wins (or lose and keep quiet :)
Anyway, ATB.

Inan,
OK, I was hoping for an answer rather than another question.
However, your question implies that you DON’T think the mcap will influence the value of any deal at all. Thanks.

Inan,
“regardless of the Share price be it 3p or 50p that does not dictate a deal been done .. that's the beauty of Bio”.
Are you saying the Prevailing SP/market cap will have no bearing on the value of any deal to Scancell and It’s shareholders?