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I would say the risk reward ratio looks good after a 90% fall. A couple of hundred small punt for me here today. If it comes good I will have a few baggers, otherwise I will lose 50-60% of it unless it actually gets suspended.
Sadly AIM stocks with no revenues are fully sentiment driven which at the moment seems very weak especially towards the small cap pharma research sector. The sentiment (read money) will return someday but no can predict when the tide might change.
It's all about timing and for holders like me who got the timing wrong no option but to ride it out and hope that either (a) my average is still low enough for it to be reached and exceeded someday purely from the sentiment change or (b) some genuine transformational news is released which genuinely re rates the SP or (c) sell and move on immediately.
My guess is that the pain might continue for a little more time, although I am hoping being nearly 50% down the worst phase is over.
Some fairly chunky 50/70/100k trades and a small increase. I suspect Kight is hoovering up some cheap shares today. Not sure who is supplying these though as guess everyone is more or less underwater.
I reckon Poly are done with the buying, so MMs letting this rise as longer have an order to fill is my guess. Perhaps they have now crossed 25% comfortably so IMHO may no longer have a need to buy any further as now have their stake high enough for not letting any special resolution pass through if they want.
I have kept averaging down for the last few months, thinking surely it's nearing bottom and we will see a reversal but kept getting proven wrong. Although the risk reward ratio keeps getting better, have reached the stage where I have no more spare money to throw at it to further increase my exposure. Am sure a lot of other LTHs might be in the same boat.
I thought I was in at a good average at around 6p but clearly not. Can't keep averaging down so it will be a case of when sentiment changes for some buys to come in.
Waiting to see if the directors buy in at this crashed level with their own personal money but if not the message is very clear for me on what I need to do next which is to get out when possible.
It shows as a sell, but that is not reliable indicator. Looking at the trades around that time could be buys as well, very difficult to actually say. I would reckon Polygon starting to buy again as the SP drifts towards the mid 20s.
What I am also interested to hear from the Company is do we also have a legal case to pursue Paraxel to compensate for the many millions of £ lost if they haven't conducted the trial as per the protocol requirements. If the patients especially the SNG arm were not meant to receive steroids then surely it has to be a miscommunication issue from Paraxel to the hospitals for not communicating and implementing this correctly given the majority of the patients received this.
At the moment I have more confidence in Polygon doing something to get my money back than the SNG management which is why I am sticking around with my almost worthless shares. My confidence in the current BOD is literally zero after the collapse of my investment. It wouldn't have hurt so much if it would have been a straight trial failure which would have shown the product just doesn't work which I would accept more easily. 18 months later and having £50 -60 million spent on a poorly carried out multi country complex trial and we still don't know for sure thanks to the steroids debacle.
I don't think they are going to be silent shareholders just going through some of their actions listed on their website for their participating interests and following what's happened with the P3 trial debacle, I expect them to question the management competency to lead the way forward if they haven't already and perhaps press for changes at the top soon.
They are a hedge fund and maximising returns is what they are focussed on, and if they have lost confidence in the current BOD, then they are likely to ask for actions and changes, all IMHO.
https://www.polygoninv.com/eventdrivenpressreleases/
Understandably the focus is on data and to hear more from RM. Speculation on my part but morale may be very very low at Synairgen and maybe some of the leadership could well be contemplating that perhaps this is as far as they can take this and to handover the baton to someone else.
Polygon have a near 20% stake and understandably may not be very happy. They have invested to make money and doubt they are going to give up on £60m or so easily and play nice guys. Could they also force leadership changes including right at the top given their large stake? I think these are not remote possibilities and could well be an interesting next few weeks.
Irrespective of whether steroids were used for the SNG population or not, we stood no chance if the placebo population now has a median time to discharge of 7 days under SOC. Under phase 2 it was 9 days, so outcomes have improved for the placebo population.
We needed to hit 5 days or less to get statistical significance and we have gone reverse with ours increasing to 7 days from 6 days under phase 2 in a larger trial. The increase could well be from steroid use if it counteracts SNG001, but no one knows.
5 days or less for median discharge could well be a real tough target to achieve if the regulators still insist on having this as a primary outcome in a future trial even if SNG is used on its own, as the SOC outcome could well remain the same for the placebo population.
Very big lesson learned here of never ever being over confident or over invested no matter even if it looks like a sure shot winner.
I had £35k invested here at one point of time a few months back at over 200p average and thanks to my better half who saw better sense and was sceptical all the time, forced me to derisk all the way down to about £10k at one point of time following the recent rise in Dec and Jan.
I got greedy with all the big numbers floating in my head with all these new job postings and added £5k a couple of weeks back again. Down nearly 85% now on my £15k investment, and am just shocked and very sad since yesterday, but it could have been a lot worse which thankfully it isn't.
Still holding out with about 8k shares, but definitely my confidence has been hit big time here.
Yep, again one to add to my growing list of poor investment decisions. Averaging 5p here so unless something positive like a big sponsorship happens am unlikely to see a return to this level in the medium future looking at the constant selling in the last few months. One more to go in my over filled bottom drawer to buy and forget.
It might sound crazy and it's complete speculation until a TR1 lands from them, but could Polygon still be accumulating. They must surely want to recoup their big losses. It's not going to take a lot now for them to increase stake given the crash and take a more active role in the future direction of the company.