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It's a very tricky situation at least for me.
My best guess is that there is something encouraging from the trial and that they are taking their time to carry out a detailed analysis and tweak the remaining recruitment accordingly.
If anything positive emerges there is tremendous potential to explode upside from the low market cap we sit in, so it is tempting to add further. But I already have a considerable stake so don't want to add any further at least until the news is released.
I am more than happy to vote against, as all the recent actions seems ridiculous and just shafting existing holders. Daft question, but how do I vote against. I just hold a very small holding, which might count to nothing but I still want to lodge my opposition.
Why such a large discount when recent SP was as high as 41p? Not happy at all.
Yes, I was expecting something more material as well. The information was largely already known info and the only additional information was on some further preclinical trials carried out on mice. Still can't figure out why this would warrant a suspension on ASX. Those guys must be scratching their heads as well.
The suspension RNS does say "The halt was requested by the Company pending the release of an announcement by the Company in relation to further findings on ArtemiCTM."
And today that is what they have released. Will be surprised if anything further is announced today.
Activ 2 phase 2 can be anytime. Seems like the market has downplayed the significance of this compared to the hospital phase 3 trial, which is slightly surprising as any positive news from the USA and the negative sentiment will completely reverse.
I gave up and bought back in this morning, after much deliberation in the night. To think of that this would have been my biggest multibagger from 5p really sucks. Not going to make the same mistake again of selling early. This is now a long term hold.
Feeling far more confident now given that the directors have a SP performance based substantial incentive at stake via the options. The small director buys and direct holding had me slightly worried this morning but am feeling much more reassured now.
Bought at 5p and sold at 6p after holding it for months when nothing seemed to happen. Been watching it ever since consistently rise, and too afraid to dip toes again now. Selling this will always remain one of the biggest regrets of my life.
Let's hope we get an upside rerate rather than a downside one. This is my second biggest investment after SNG and might soon be my biggest the way that one has been falling recently. I have taken enough of a big hit there already and am hoping this one can soon bring some cheers.
Scinv, you are right, seems like the cheapest price is 899 rupees now. Different licencees have different prices and 5000 Rupees was an average price by some licencees until a few weeks back which have been further slashed.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.businesstoday.in/lite/story/remdesivir-now-at-rs-899-producers-cut-prices-post-govt-intervention/1/436894.html
The market in India can be quite lucrative, but it will be a question of scale and pricing to compete. Remdesivir for example is priced at 5000 Rupees which is about £50, but production has been ramped to 10million a month.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/swarajyamag.com/amp/story/news-brief%252Fremdesivir-production-in-india-increased-threefold-to-105-crore-vials-per-month-union-minister-mansukh-mandaviya
If SNG will be priced at the higher end of $3k with very limited supply, there will however still be enough middle and upper class people to be able to afford it, but won't be able to compete with Remdesivir for the majority of the population.
Thank Matterhorn for this information. This suggests 3 hospitalisations from the placebo arm Vs 1 from the drug arm would be a good outcome, although this was from a much larger study. I couldn't find any information on the recent Brii Activ 2 trials for their progression to Phase 3 which would be very interesting to see. I am assuming they are yet to release the underlying details.
Nolupus, what is your take on the Activ 2 trial which is really my real main worry right now? Although the recruitment will be much larger at 220 Vs 120 for the home trial, it is open to over 18s, so the group will be generally even more healthier than the home trial group. It will be good to see a similar trend as that shown for the very breathless category to give some more credibility, but question is will we still have enough in the first case.
All the investors in the recent fund raise will be terribly disappointed if 14% return is all they would get with the amount of risk involved. They have invested with a view of getting much higher returns from the phase 3 trials assuming it ends up being a success. Although nothing is guaranteed, I don't think anything has emerged since then to weaken the case for the trial to not be successful, except that it may perhaps take much longer to complete.
I have had the similar mixed thoughts as well on reading the RNS and had to read it a few times to get my thoughts straight. I really worry, and am less positive than before for Activ 2 and hope we are not going to be kicked off the Activ 2 trials, especially as am already on big paper losses. Hope they recognise the drug can still be useful for breathless cases and see similar trends in their study. Perhaps they can create the Phase 3 protocol accordingly if they decide to progress us.