Member Info for RoyRoy

After seeing this thing about Wednesdays being the favoured day for ITX to release an RNS, I ran some analysis...

Number of RNS releases per day of the week since the 3rd Aug 2018 RNS:
Monday = 11, Tuesday = 28, Wednesday = 33, Thursday = 17, Friday = 21

Number of RNS releases per day of the week since the 8th Jan 2021 RNS:
Monday = 3, Tuesday = 8, Wednesday = 16, Thursday = 9, Friday = 6

Fun but otherwise pretty pointless excercise in my opinion but might excite one or two here.

I've been pondering valuations; market cap and potential share price.

Using revenue multiples, a very crude way to estimate company value, the figure will not be exact but I think it's interesting nonetheless.

If we think of early stage profitable companies valuation being a 2-3x multiple, and more established pharmas being around 7x. The current market cap (£112m) would suggest we should be generating between £16m - £56m revenue per annum.

Looking at the licensing agreements already in place...

China and South East Asia - "50% sales"
Brazil and Mexico - "payments on all sales" and "up to $8.5 million in milestone payments"
Gulf and Middle East Region - "initial upfront payments, as well as undisclosed milestone payments"
South Korea - "initial upfront payment" and "agreed price to Futura for the manufacture and supply"
EEA, United Kingdom and Switzerland - "initial upfront payments, as well as undisclosed cumulative sales milestone payments"

It's already clear to me that the lower of these estimates seems entirely plausible.

When the dust settles in the coming months, and we get to results day sometime in April '23, we'll get a flavour of what revenue these deals might be capable of generating. I don't find it difficult to imagine in the slightest, revenues upwards of £16m. Furthermore, when a USA agreement is signed and sales commence, and with a growing global market, I imagine we'll be well north of that. China alone, where it is suggested that "ED is highly prevalent", could contribute a substantial amount of revenue to that total sum. Exciting times.

*As always, I might have got my maths wrong so please do correct me where you spot errors.

Perhaps I should have spelled it out for those at the back...

Semantically, the order of the words matter.
"Current cash runway extends well beyond expected initial MED3000 launches in the coming months..."

This is the key bit comes next .... the **AND**.
You might read this as "...and also the..." or perhaps "...and even the..."

"...expected US regulatory approval in Q1 2023."

The words here suggest that the initial launches (plural = more than one) will come before the FDA approval. Seeing as they don't know if FDA approval will be in Jan 23 or later, and are using these two construcs as time references, I proposed that this might mean when they say, "coming months" they mean the period before Q1 '23.

Regardless, the FDA approval is paid for and with any launches (whether q4 22 or q1 23) will probably come upfront payment to Futura as per the 5/6 RNS stating territory licensing agreements.

In all the history of this company, we really are in a period of very good news.

From RNS: 13 September 2022

"Current cash runway extends well beyond expected initial MED3000 launches in the coming months and expected US regulatory approval in Q1 2023."

The way this reads, it seems the product will might launched (somewhere) this year.

https://www. v o x m a r k e t s .co.uk/articles/quantum-blockchain-technologies-new-director-appointment-will-have-a-strong-positive-impact-9c6fecb

https://www. ********** .co.uk/articles/quantum-blockchain-technologies-new-director-appointment-will-have-a-strong-positive-impact-9c6fecb

https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/quantum-blockchain-technologies-new-director-appointment-will-have-a-strong-positive-impact-9c6fecb

I'm sure many here are aware, but regarding the super absorbants, lets remember the trial currently underway is a full customer production trial.

The product has already been through Itaconix internal production trials. To me, it seems unlikely that ITX would allow a customer to trial a product without either, a) being sure it met the requirements, or b) being sure they could work with the customer to tweak the product to meet their needs.

Seeing as the global super absorbant market is somewhere around $9bil and as there really are no competitors to this plant based product, it's quite something that this news hasn't been (in my opinion) priced in in the slightest.

The RNS of 09 February 2022:
---
Itaconix (AIM: ITX) (OTCQB: ITXXF) ... is pleased to announce that it has supplied product for the first production trial using the Company's plant-based superabsorbent, VELAFRESH® SAP80.

VELAFRESH® SAP80 is being trialed by a leading supplier to companies that produce baby diapers, feminine hygiene products, adult diapers, and industrial absorption products. This follows the Company's production trials for VELAFRESH® SAP80 in 2021. If the prospective customer's trials are favourable, potential Itaconix revenues are expected to start in 2023.
---

Direct from the trading update...

"The Company is in a strong position to meet market expectations for revenues in 2022."

No mention of exceeding market expectations so unsurprisingly there's no change to forecasts.

Personally, i'm very happy with ITX. I'm happy with the current share price and happy with the potential massive gains to be made here.

John Shaw's medium term (3-5 years ? ) revenue target of $25m is roughly ~5x from here.
John Shaw's longer term (10 years ? ) revenue target of $75m is roughly ~15x from here.

Both I feel are realistic and entirely acheivable and so I'm happy to sit and wait. What Finccap says (or doesn't say) changes nothing for me.

The meagre fund raise has been niggling me somewhat. I'm just wondering why they didn't raise more?

We know at the start of the year they had $0.7m cash ("...and net cash of $0.7 million as at 31 December 2021.") and we know they currently burn around $1.5m per year ("$2m...closer to $1m per year"). Revenue from H1 has historically been much lower than H2 revenue so cash must be getting very tight. Furthermore, they claim that the raise is "predominantly to strengthen finished goods inventories held in the EU".

So why didn't they just raise enough to see them to the end of the year... ~$0.8m + enough to support EU volumes ~$0.2m
= $1m? Also, why not just borrow the $0.3m ? To raise such a small amount, the overheads (legal and exchange) must eat into that somewhat.

Obviously, I hope I'm missing something and slight nerves will be for nothing! Happy to hear your thoughts.

Ha, John is not really the salesman type (see his presentation style) which is why I like him. He just gets on with the job. Not saying it couldn't happen but I'd be very surprised if they were holding back reports.

And historically, the first half figures are way under compared to the second half so I'm not convinced they'll be that keen to report. I'd say they'd be more keen to update the market with new large orders or new product. I'd like to think we'll hear from them on these areas before the end of July but we'll see.

Browsing European Commision...

"Detergents – streamlining and updating the EU rules"
https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/13116-Detergents-streamlining-and-updating-the-EU-rules/F2722461_en

Unilever left some feedback...

"The Detergent Regulation has been instrumental in environmental protection through its requirement on biodegradation for surfactants, well before REACH came into existence. At Unilever, we aim to use 100% biodegradable ingredients by 2030, globally. We therefore believe that the time is right to expand biodegradation requirement to all organic chemicals used in detergents, of course allowing industry sufficient time to convert. Such biodegradability requirements should typically demand ultimate biodegradability of the molecules within a given time-frame relevant to the different substances used. For example, dedicated methods for polymers might be required. By demanding biodegradability of all organic chemicals used, the Detergent Regulation could again be at the forefront of protection of the environment. "
---
TL;DR ... "At Unilever, we aim to use 100% biodegradable ingredients by 2030, globally"

I know the video has been shared. Apologies if this has also...

https://www.edisongroup.com/five-things-every-investor-should-know-about-everyday-decarbonisation-and-itaconix/

Em, a bit early to say "the sp has fallen today." Lets see how this afternoon shapes up.

I suspect there are many investors who would take 100% return in a year and will see buying ITX at (currenlty) 5.91p a good play.

Also, there's always a chance that we'll see share price top 17p this year. As we all know, when good news lands, interest, liquidity, and share price all go up. And as it happens, I beleive that 2022 will be a year full of good news for ITX.

Yes, lots to digest. A few bits that were of interest to me...

"We set our one-year price target at 12p, indicating a market cap of £53m, which recognises the significant inherent value of Itaconix’s IP and product range, which has not yet been commercially realised, in addition to the prospect for additional customer projects. Our 12p price target offers strong upside to current levels, and the group’s acceleration of its growth strategy should be positive for medium-term shareholder value."
p3

"In the near term, it has a potential pipeline of $25m of projects."
p1

"The shares have been very strong outperformers over recent months, but far from reflect the company’s full potential and they should continue to outperform on future commercial news flow. The recent step-back seen following the trading update should offer longer-term investors an opportunity to invest at more palatable levels before outperformance resumes."
p28

I'm no expert but my take is that with such low volume, the timing and order of trades (buys and sells) can lead to seemingly incongruous share price close.

Ups and downs, ups and downs. Still my favourite share and one I continually pimp as one of the safest holds in the market.

- Excellent patents
- Fast growing customer base
- Sticky customers (once using ITX product, they don't tend to stop)
- "Covid safe" - most revenue from cleaning products and household essentials.
- Environmental and sustainable (Awarded the LSE's Green Economy Mark)
- Wide (and growing) range of applications (cleaning, personal, fashion, paint? bags?)
- Capacity for 2-3x growth in current premesis.
- Option to expand (double total capacity? ) for 500k
- Current drive to become profitable (maybe annouced later this month?)
- Massive CEO stake (John Shaw has ~10%)
- Best (most informative and civil) chat board on LSE.

...and perhaps (I think) most importantly, they don't pander to the AIM Traders with frivolous RNS's; they just get on with the job of growing the customer base with new and innovative product, which in time will reward the confidence and patience of the long term Investor.

*Please do point out any inaccuracies in the information above ... writing from memory which has known to fail before!

So, I appreciate this might have been discussed previously but with this Placing, Subscription and Open Offer the total share increase will be astronomical no?

Current shares in issue => 922m
+
Placing => 2,400m ("2,400,000,000 Ordinary Shares to be issued pursuant to the Placing")
Subscription => 150m ("150,000,000 Ordinary Shares to be issued pursuant to the Subscription")
Open Offer => 250m ("A total of 250,000,000 Open Offer Shares will be made available to Qualifying Shareholders pursuant to the Open Offer")
==> 2,800m new shares

Meaning the total shares in circulation will be roughly 4 times what they are today.

----

If MkCap remains around £3m...
922m + 2,800m
= 3,722 shares
... at 0.1p (what the board suggest the share price should be with this raise)
== > £3.7m

...to see 1p per share again, we're talking about a £37M company ... which with todays shares would equate to a 4p share*.
In the past 3 years (May '18 -> now) the share price has only seen 4p or higher for 18 days (Feb '19).
*£37m / 922m shares
---

So, assuming the big players have dictated the terms here, and as such will obviously vote in favour of the Fundraising Resolutions, the only question is ... do we join them at 0.1p or will DMTR not even be worth that?!?

Any thoughts...?

*Please do point out any errors or miscalculations here!!

Wow, Thanks Liambooth,

https://www.newshealth.biz/health-news/could-a-placebo-become-the-next-big-ed-treatment/

Are all placebos created equal...? Probably not :)
" “It’s clearly not acting as a regular placebo,” said Kenneth William James, executive director and head of research and development at Futura Medical, in a transcript of a 2020 call with investors."

Mahoosive market
"The worldwide market for ED products is huge; one recent report estimated a global market value of $4.7 billion by 2026. However, many men fail to sustain erections even while they’re taking Viagra-type drugs, and other alternatives — such as ***** implants and injections — are a hard sell."

Another medical expert quote
"Hunter Wessells, MD, of the University of Washington in Seattle, said that the new gel product sounds “really exciting.”"

Looking great for the end of May.

Good to see/hear Futura will be looking to push ahead with MED3000 in other markets whilst steps for approval in the US is underway.

"...looking to delivery long term sustainable returns to our shareholders and also we want to be able to deliver some good test launches in markets in parallel as we work towards getting US approval..."
- James Barder

Haha Liambooth, so predictable. If FUM gave out free gold bars tomorrow you'd be complaining they were too heavy!

Your agenda has been outed. Your obsession with deramping FUM explained. Your stream of alternative "facts" drying up.

Nobody is taking you seriously man. May I suggest that you either stop posting for a short while, or at least pretend you care a jot about this share by showing a little balance in your posts.