Member Info for RoyRoy

A fair amount of todays price movement is to do with general market movement. Almost all markets are down. AIM, FTSEs, Europe, NY, Asia etc

There's a lot of uncertainty with increasing COVID accross Europe and beyond, impending standoff between the UK and Europe in trade deals due to vaccine exports, and maybe even a little to do with up to a 3rd of global shipping trade parked up waiting for the Suez to open up again.

*That last one is 99% joke

A fair amount of todays price movement is to do with general market movement. Almost all markets are down. AIM, FTSEs, Europe, NY, Asia etc

There's a lot of uncertainty with increasing COVID accross Europe and beyond, impending standoff between the UK and Europe in trade deals due to vaccine exports, and maybe even a little to do with up to a 3rd of global shipping trade parked up waiting for the Suez to open up again.

*That last one is 99% joke

A fair amount of todays price movement is to do with general market movement. Almost all markets are down. AIM, FTSEs, Europe, NY, Asia etc

There's a lot of uncertainty with increasing COVID accross Europe and beyond, impending standoff between the UK and Europe in trade deals due to vaccine exports, and maybe even a little to do with up to a 3rd of global shipping trade parked up waiting for the Suez to open up again.

*That last one is 99% joke

Reading these boards, I can imagine how easy it would be for some to get drawn into the day trader mentality. That is buying and selling without an understanding of the potential long term gains.

Now, I could be wrong, but this share feels like Fevertree back in the early days. This is a niche consumer product which has the potential to become a real global brand with a premium edge. Just take a look at the rewards for Fevertrees long terms holders. I dread to think how many day traders are kicking themselves for selling out of FEVR in July 2015 after making big gains... It did a 10x from those "highs" in just three years.

Ignore the bumps and hold.

On Friday past (19th) all the fundamentals for FUM changed. Before that date, there was basically just 20 odd years of product development. With the CE mark, this stock is now in uncharted territory; you can't compare its past performance to its future. Chalk and Cheese.

Indeed...if played right by the BoD!

If they do still intend to call it that, I can just imagine the commercial...
"Get Eroxon, get Eroxon honey. Shake it now, now, get 'em off downtown"
:)

Taking these ludicrous assumtions further...

The cost of a Viagra pill is roughly around the $5 mark.
I'm going to make a wild estimate and say the gel is sold at say $1.5 per single use tube.

Revenues, like for like usage, would be around a quarter that of Viagra which might suggest $400m total revenue in the first year. Of which FUM might expect to receive $200m after licensing etc

$200m earnings would equate to... £10 per share.
Price 10
Shares 300,000,000
Earnings 200,000,000
Diluted EPS 0.666666666666667
P/E 15
MKCAP £3,000,000,000

Madness. Someone tell me I've got this totally wrong!!!

*Pfizer P/E = 16
**300m shares to account for options etc

Just running a quick amatuer comparison with Pfizer. I must be making some errors. These numbers are crazy.

Pfizer
MkCAP = $198bn
Earnings (profit) = $11.71bn
17:1

FUM
MkCAP = $10.5bn
Earnings (profit) = $600m
17:1

$600m is only a third to a quarter of the global Viagra market. The market for this gel is way bigger than that right?

Remember, in 1998 Viagra became the fastest selling drug in history.

Within three months of its launch, Viagra had already earned Pfizer $400m, and over the past two decades, it has consistently generated annual sales to the tune of around $1.8bn.

My strategy now with FUM is just to ask myself this simple question ...

When the next RNS comes out (almost certainly within the coming weeks), is it more likely to be positive or negative?

I could be wrong but I'm strongly leaning towards it being positive, in which case I'll be delighted in watching the share price as it rushes north.

Yup. Plenty of buyers it seems. I can sell everything I've got at 59p....now 60p.

If there is a takeover, and if it's an American corp, I'd expect them to wait til the FDA trials are complete before raising their heads. If all goes well, and there's no reason for me to suspect it wont, I think there will be a healthy premium on the share price.

Global Viagra revenues have been, on average just below £2bn per year for the past 20 years. If MED3000 does just one tenth of that, that would be £100m renenues per year after licensing (manufacturing and distrubution) which, unless my maths is wrong (and there's a good chance of that!), should put the share price somewhere around £9.
--
Shares 246,000,000
Earnings 100,000,000
Diluted EPS 0.40650406504065
P/E 22.14

In summary, if there's a buyout/takeover, I wouldn't expect the shareholdes to agree on anything less than £10 per share. That is, a MkCap ~£2.5bn.

Could be breaking out but what I'm most interested in is hearing more on what this means...

"Subject to shareholder approval, I am delighted to make a significant investment into the Company. The Board has ambitious plans for the rapid expansion of the business and the cash reserves we have now secured will kick-start this growth. "

Thanks mpl50, You raise some good points. However, the website does indeed have actual photos of the port...
https://www.mercpl.com/gallery/Photo/inauguration-ceremony-march-8-2019/33

Granted, not as shiny lookin as the computer generated "junk" ... but to your point when you say "There is no port " ... it's clear there is a port (or sorts).

This quote says it all ... "I look forward to updating the market as we close further contracts with pipeline customers throughout the course of the year".

Sounds very much like they have more contracts in the advanced stages of agreement.

What's going on here then? 25,000,000 and 15,000,000 buys!
Someone's confident...

Yup. I think this is one of the safest investments there is in the current climate.
- a household defensive, covid safe, company
- sticky ingredient (once in a formulation, it doesn't get removed easily )
- eco / esg
- ITX IP and patents
- $15m product capacity at existing plant (with minimal additional investment)
- growing customer base
- cash til at least the end of this year
- John Shaw :)

Only reason for the slight downward is the lack of clarity of last years results. We know they were good and we know they were "slightly ahead of current market expectations". Most likely means, they're not yet breaking even. However, they will and as soon as they do, this share will not stop rising. By my estimations we'll see 10p around $7m revenue and at least 20p at $9m.

Buy now and hold. Come 2022, ITX will be in high demand.

No, not much revenue at this stage

I guess the main point of Bitcoin is its decentralisation. The more people running a node, the more decentralised the network is and therefore, in theory, the stronger it is.

It would zap your bandwidth for sure when you initially download the blockchain (~500GB)...after that, its just downloading newly mined blocks.

One other benefit is that you can host your own bitcoin wallet as every full node is also a btc wallet. I think you can also run a lightning network node too meaning off-chain payments which in theory would be cheaper and faster.

Wonder if anyone has installed their own Bitcoin node with Umbrele?
Raspberry Pi, SSD and few cables. Total cost ~ £500 and apparently you're good to go...

https://getumbrel.com/

Right...so where did you get your information from?

Interesting..
I'll take it with a pinch of a quote...(Can't read behind the paywall)
Are you able to share more details?