Member Info for RoyRoy

Hi Iron Knut,

If you're referring to the Spirited Shareholder 21yo Glen Grant, more info here: https://artisanal-spirits.com/shareholder-benefits-programme

[https]://artisanal-spirits.com/shareholder-benefits-programme

Instructions are:

Once you’ve invested, to become a Spirited Shareholder, it’s simple:

1. Register for an Artisanal Spirits account on our new website.

2. Follow the instructions to verify your shareholding (please feel free to reach out if anything is unclear).

I don't know how they verify. You could send them an email ?

info@artisanal-spirits.com

info[at]artisanal-spirits.com

If you're referring to another "special bottle", would be interested to hear what it was .

According to the Spirited shareholder programe ...

"...anyone who is a member of the new benefit tier on 30 June 2025 (i.e. holds at least 5,000 shares at this date), will also receive a complimentary bottle of an exclusive and delicious commemorative 21-year-old Scotch whisky."

Might be worth it. I see the 21 y/o currently available from SMWS is £149, a 1st fill ex-bourbon hogshead from Glen Garioch. Not a bad whisky I bet. Hopefully for anyone qualifying, the bottle is a single cask release and not a "special" blend.

Just a few days late at this juncture..

April was released 19/5

March 23/4

Feb 24/3

...

I don't understand your post ... "Hvivo not looking very good either since CF walked away"

Your use of the word _either_ here suggests that CF has "walked away" but infact the opposite is true. He's just upped his holding by £100k.

Can you clarify your point ?

Hmm, so (if i heard correctly) no longer pushing for a listing on the NASDAQ and will unwind all the work on that front ? "Cost cutting".

Over the past 4 years there have been many great sounding words (Skillington is an excellent wordsmith) but IMO very little progress. Lots of time, effort, and money will I'm sure have been spent on preparing for NASDAQ listing. And for what...? I wonder if the management thought with all this buzz on AI, they could jump on the bandwagon, and with a high profile pharma NASDAQ listing see the share price rocket before cashing out after a takeover ... ? Pure speculation on my part obvisouly but it seems to me this company has focussed a lot of its recent effort on a NAZ listing which has probably impacted the progress on the drug research side.

When will we see genuine progress ? I just want to see some evidence of this company moving forward on the pharma...

Happy to hear all view points and be corrected of course.

I totally agree that John and team have managed to marry the science with the market, however I don't think that this is a recent development. It's been fundamental to the growth and success of the company to date.

For example Yvon first created a superabsorbant polymer in 2008 and I'd bet that they've engineered many others in all sorts of different sectors. John has said you can make so many things from itaconic acid, it all comes down to margins and profitability and we're not quite there with superabsorbants.

My point is that they made a conscious decision to focus first on the dish tab market (they have a functional advantage in dish tabs due to having 2 carboxylic acid groups). It's clear that John et al did the maths and they realised they could not only provide a green alternative, but also one that produced better results and was cheaper. John sums this up in the most recent RNS "...the Company's key competitive advantage is in delivering both performance and affordability."

A win, win, win for customers which can be seen in the N. American sales to date. As John says, ITX ingredients are in products in every price range: the premium shelf dish tab products, the budget, and also the ECO ranges.

But, the most interesting part of the ShareSoc presentation for me was John talking about the expected dish tab market growth in Europe.

FY23 Cleaning (mainly dish tab) revenues anfd growth

AMER = $6.9 million

AMER = 35.6%

EMEA = $1.0 million

EMEA = 89.3%

Two points

1. The European dish tab market is bigger than the US. John says this is now the focus.

2. Rossman (Germany) picked up a top award for their dish tab using ITX ingredients. Where one brand gets the ITX advantage, others soon follow.

It's clear we should anticipate huge revenue growth in Europe in the coming years.

P.S. Leather, superabsorbants, and paints are much bigger opportunities than what ITX have done so far in detergents.

Hello all,

In this slightly odd period of silence waiting for the news whilst the share price slides slowly downwards from the recent placing price.... It's good to step back and have a think about investing strategy and purpose.

I listened to this a while ago and thought it worthy of sharing here.... just never got round to it. Hope it's of interest to some.

https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk/individual-investors/short-briefings-on-long-term-thinking/ic-podcast/short-briefings-on-long-term-thinking-podcasts-episode-27-open-your-mind-to-change-10015915/

Well, it's been an interesting few weeks. And one that has left a lot of people here wondering what is going on.
I have to say, I'm probablly in that camp too although only in the short term as I'm still optimistic that longer term we'll see a multiple return on our ITX investment.

Firstly, it does seem madness that anyone would sit with 10mil in the bank in times of 10% + inflation. Now is not the time to be storing cash! But then having reviewed the presentation and read through the "handout" pdf, there is actually quite a few things ITX needed the raise for.

Increased working capital for:
- Better vendor and customer terms
- Increased finished goods inventory for delivery to EU customers
- Operating needs

Increased customer support for current ingredients

Accelerated revenue development:
- New applications
- New product development

Increased capital spending to support revenue growth:
- Improvements to current production capacity-
- New processes for new products

One of the key things here is the need for more/better/different kit to enable the superabsorbant trials to progress. Maybe the last one on the list above. The other important thing to note, and this has been mentinoed here previously, is that with greater order volumes comes more reliable inventory (greater stores of base product etc). And that obviously comes with costs; both upfront to obtain the stock, and storage.

So all of this is to say, despite my original reaction to "no plans for a plant in Europe", I think the chances are that ITX will spent this money wisely.

---

One more thing that simultaneously grabbed my attention and completely confused me, was during the presentation when John Shaw was talking about 2023 revenue growth.

The slide is worth reviewing (you can download the slides from Investor Meet Company) as it states:
"Management expects 2023 revenue growth to come mainly from current accounts and new 2022 accounts, even with large opportunities in the customer pipeline for 2023"

...and then goes on to list Customer Pipeline for 2023...

+$4m/year projects
- New NA detergent account
- New EU detergent account

+$1m/year projects
- New detergent accounts
- New odour control account

Pipeline shows +$10m a year from NEW accounts in the pipeline.
I can't quite understand his statement above in terms of 2023 revenues. Anyone explain it to me?

Oops hehe, maybe this...

"Basic Open Offer Entitlements and Excess Open Offer Entitlements credited to CREST stock accounts of Qualifying CREST Shareholders" ... "7 February 2023"

Thanks AJP08...

As per the Placing, Subscription and Open Offer; Notice of GM RNS...

"Publication and despatch of this document, the Form of Proxy and, to Qualifying Non-CREST Shareholders, the Application Form" ... "6 February 2023"

I believe market expectations can be set in a few different ways.

1. A Trading update/Results which include a sales, revenue etc value
2. Nominated broker analysis and forecast.
In this case, finnCap Ltd (who is "...contractually engaged and paid by the issuer to produce this material on an ongoing basis...") released analysis and forecast for full year revenue of $5.2m. Some time after, ITX released an RNS stating they would "deliver full year 2022 revenues ahead of current market expectations".

So, I deduced from the above a rough figure range and posted the following here on 13th Jan ... "So I was thinking it would be somewhere between $5.2m and £6m." I don't think this $5.6m revenue figure should surprise anyone.

If I had to guess, I'd say IP group have upped their stake.

And there it is...
"The placing comes at a pivotal time in the groups development and provides funds for significant expansion and scale up. In part this will be used in support of the growing revenues in the new EU customers. In addition, the group is expected to see an increase in capital expenditure on additional production equipment."

I said recently that I believe Paul LeBlanc has been brought in to help set up a European Operation.

What's the chances we'll see soon an announcement on a European production facility, that European revenue is growing much much quicker than US, and that at least one large EU customer has prompted ITX (through large order inquiries and/or superabsorbant interest?) to expediate the construction of european operations to reduce the risk in FX pricing/costs and supply chain logistics?

Obvisouly, I'm not an insider so this is just a hunch. Please DYOR.

As for a buyout anytime soon, I'm not convinced.

In a presentation/interview (I think last year) John Shaw said something like it himself that he want's to take the company to $75m revenue. Perhaps paraphrasing his words ... he continued "...and then I'm done".

That was my take from what he said. I could be way off the mark.

Could it be that Paul LeBlanc has been brought in now to help with setting up a European operation? We could surmise from previous RNS that ITX have started getting good volume from Europe.

RNS: "New Funding to Support EU Volumes" (22nd Apr 2022)
"The proceeds of the Fundraise will be used for general growth working capital, predominantly to strengthen finished goods inventories held in the EU to assure reliable and ready delivery times to EU customers."

"We expect this momentum to continue into Europe in 2022. In September, we announced our first European order for Itaconix® TSI™ 322 with an established and well-respected European brand that is recognized by both the dishwashing detergent industry and consumers as a leader in product innovation, performance, and sustainability. The new product is expected to be on retail shelves in H2 2022"

"An important milestone in these efforts was our first order for use in sustainable fashion, which we view as a new and potentially major application. The customer is a leading European supplier to companies that produce materials for the fashion and related industries."

RNS: Trading Update (13 July 2022)
"We expect to see at least one new European detergent product on the market this year, and possibly even more."

"The Company's direct selling efforts to major detergent producers in Europe had already established strong interest in Itaconix® TSI™ 322, so the renewed product development efforts are creating new traction for major revenue growth in Europe. Itaconix is delivering increased order volumes in Europe, has one brand launching a new dishwashing product this fall, and has other potential customers completing production trials for new products. The Company is rebuilding finished goods inventories in Europe to shorten delivery times and assure reliable fulfillment as customer commitments to Itaconix products grow."
"The Board expects to see at least one new European detergent product on the market this year, and possibly even more."

You get the idea.
So why Paul LeBlanc ? Well, it's all in the most recent RNS: Board Change (05 January 2023)...

Previous experience "... including overseeing the acquisition and integration of operations in Europe and Asia. "
He "..has played a leadership role in expanding financial and overall operations as Bemis has grown from a domestic business with less than $40 million in revenues into an international enterprise ..."

If my hunch is true (spoiler ... it probably isn't), European customer volume must be very, very good!

From what the company have said, I thought it was a given that there was a "...a distinct prospect of a faster than expected move toward profitably". Previous trading update (H1 22 Results ) says "The Company is in a strong position to deliver 2022 revenues ahead of current market expectations and is making major progress towards building the customer base to meet market expectations for revenues in 2023."

In fact John Shaw stated last year that:
"Hygiene was already profitable."
"Cleaning will get break even 2022."
Beauty growing slowly ("slow growth").

He's also said that they really don't use a lot of cash to operate stating they'd got cash burn down from around $2m per year to "...closer to $1m per year".

One of the reasons I'm in ITX is the good visibility on future revenue. Working with customers for a year or 2 on integrating ITX product into their solution, working with order estimates, and the fact that these contracts are "sticky" means John Shaw and the team must have a solid idea of future cash flow.

ITX have no debt. By all accounts, they'll go cash flow positive in 2023 which i believe are "market expectations for revenues in 2023.'

So, respectfully I don't agree that "...ITX is definitely not for the faint-hearted".
IMHO ITX is maybe the best risk return opportunity in AIM and by my calculations could (and should) be a solid 10x in the coming 5-8 years.

John had stated earler his goal was to get to $75m revenue....which is a around a 15x from here. That target was set before superabsorbant trials began in earnest...

Superabsorbants could move "Itaconix's addressable market increased from $750 million to $2.3 billion."
Just think about these numbers and you'll start to see why I say "maybe the best risk return opportunity in AIM".

This is a great company to get to know so I'd advise new and old investors to read/re-read the previous RNSs and watch the presentations.

@justdeezerts, I fully agree when you say "Exciting times ahead"!

Good post Smart...

I might be remembering wrong but what i have in my head is that market expectations were $5.2m BEFORE the H1 results which stated "The Company remains on course to deliver full year 2022 revenues ahead of current market expectations" So I was thinking it would be somewhere between $5.2m and £6m. Perhaps a dose of hopium but good growth and very positive news which ever way.

And secondly, to add to your margins point, Itaconix seems to have addressed the lower margins...stating... "The Company has had overall success in keeping pace with higher raw material prices through three price increases since January 2022."
So "...the Company expects significant improvements to gross margins in the second half of 2022."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ITX/half-year-results-dovdq4jlpezo1b6.html

Yup. And it should continue its steady rise.

Trinity Delta recon we should be around 94p and that's before any near term revenues are taken into consideration!!

"Pending visibility on both US and European launches, our updated model conservatively does not include any near-term MED3000 related revenues. Our Futura Medical valuation is now £270m, equivalent to 94p per share"

https://www.trinitydelta.org/research-notes/on-the-cusp-of-med3000-commercialisation/

What an unexpected and welcome opportunity to top up...and from what i can see many have seized it!

As for an update, it's always good to hear how business is progressing however, it may be that we already know what's been happening these past few months. The recent Half year results (14th Sept) gave a pretty good outline of what was to come. With no RNS to update/correct, we have to assume that everything is ticking along as per.

So, to recap....John R. Shaw stated:

"We expect to see at least one new EU detergent product on the market this year, a new hair care ingredient launched in the coming months, and major new potential in hygiene applications.

The Company remains on course to deliver full year 2022 revenues ahead of current market expectations based on progress in commercial volumes and success in passing on increases in direct costs. Adjusted EBITDA1 loss for full year 2022 is expected to be an improvement on 2021, but below previous market expectations, reflecting continued investment in the growth of the business."

And remember, that "continued investment" is (from what i understand) mainly in funding superabsorbant trials which if successful see "Itaconix's addressable market increased from $750 million to $2.3 billion ". Without investment there is no growth.

Thanks goldust88.

Interesting reading...
https://www.trinitydelta.org/research-notes/on-the-cusp-of-med3000-commercialisation/