USA to intervene ??1 Apr 2023 10:40
from comments recently put out in the media, could the USA offer up the cash to pay the IOC,s in return for supply to USA reserves, ?, one thing the USA doesnt want and that is Turkey turning to IRAN for export oil , to fill the gap left by Kurdistan oil, the longer the stalemate goes on , these scenarios will come into play.
Get more involved in Baghdad-Ankara negotiations. As this author has noted for years, the ITP arbitration has always offered a platform to drive U.S. policy objectives regarding Iraq-Turkey relations, and it still does. The partial award of $1.46 billion to Baghdad helps set expectations for the second tranche, and this in turn can help Washington mediate between Baghdad and Ankara over water, electricity, trade, and infrastructure.
Provide financing for assumption of trader debts. On the specific issue of oil marketing at Ceyhan, the United States can help Iraq obtain financing to “buy” the KRI’s debt to oil traders (which is likely $2-4 billion). This would allow several things: for trading to be passed to SOMO; for Iraq to achieve better per barrel prices on KRI-operated crude; and for oil to pass only to end-users that SOMO permits. One option might be for the U.S. government to buy Iraqi oil to restock the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Support constructive players. Bafel Talabani of the PUK has the requisite relationships in Baghdad to un-block the exports and pick up at the promising point where the budget and oil law negotiations left off. The United States provides the PUK with close military and intelligence support and should leverage this relationship to motivate Bafel to counter spoilers such as Maliki.
Warn spoilers to back off. The U.S. government knows exactly who is trying to torpedo or leverage the deal. One such spoiler is Maliki, whom Washington came within a whisker of sanctioning for corruption in late 2020. Any parties actively trying to undermine the Baghdad-KRI deal—at a cost to Iraq, Kurdistan, and regional stability—must receive a firm and explicit warning that they will be sanctioned if they are proven to have threatened Iraq’s stabilization.
..........
as the impasse continues longer than 1 week pressure mounts on all parties to get a deal done, before it all implodes, imo