Member Info for roulettewheel

16:35 - 30/11 Sell 1764208 251.00p £4,428,162.08

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/29/collapsed-intu-bid-reveals-bricks-and-mortar-retailers-fight-for-survival Its real estate investment director, Adrian Benedict, thinks the value of UK shopping centres, retail parks and high street stores could fall by 20 to 70%, depending on the nature and quality of the assets.

Please bear with me. Lets do some basic maths,

Assume INTU property is worth 100. A fall of 20 - 70%, average is fall of 45% would revalue INTU property to 55.

As INTU share price is currently trading at 0.34 (re 114sp) of Book Value. Then assuming assets are only worth 55, then it should instead of 34/100 trade on revaluation basis of 34/55 = Price to Book of 0.62.

Thats looks a good buy to me. Oh and lets not forget to not also reduce the rents by 45% to all tenants, to keep things as per the model, that then keeps Rental Yield as before.

So bring on the revaluation of Assets and reduction of rent. Apologies in advance if my maths is wrong, but I would be happy to own INTU at P/B of 0.62 with rebased assets and rents. Thanks for giving me a reason to buy more tomorrow

I bought at 120 really small as I have been scared too, and then I bought a bit more at 116. I will keep buy a bit more every 5 pence down. I have been trading 30 years and I know there is no sure thing, but buying a REIT at P/B 0.40 or less is a once in a life time chance. I will hold it for 10 years if need be.

Hope I get a chance to carry on buying more tomorrow

I see Numis and BOA Merril Lynch as Brokers? https://investors.petsathome.com/investors/shareholder-information

https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc
Biggest Short in UK https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

Results 29th Nov, so if any profit warning has to be 2 weeks before then ( i think)
https://investors.petsathome.com/investors/financial-calendar

Not sure what all the short professionals know but they have got it right so far. This is a long term position for me now. I am maxed out at 10% of my Portfolio so I can only sit and watch

Results are due 25th May 2017, and if there is a profit warning it has to be a week or two before, hence interesting timing

At market cap £830m compared to Countrywide £400m, Foxtons £280m and Savills £1,300m it feels toppy. Constant dilution does not help. I have also seen local estate agents offered fixed fee alternatives now. However, if you value each country separately, ie UK, USA, Austrialia and not to mention France and Spain (if or when they come on board) where agent fees are in excess of 5%, a per country valuation of say £200m per country sounds quite compelling. I cant sell now as my regret at the shares doubling will be so much greater than the regret if they halved.