Member Info for rossdavis

Isn’t the CFO in London?

Weren’t Q4 bookings circa 10% of the annual total? Not great for a ‘high growth’ company.

Although it would be impressive if you striped out the Chinese bookings, but then of course you’d need to adjust the valuation…

Interesting your man at Barcap has just reiterated 500p.

Wow, 8615. Seems crazy considering the update was largely as expected.

I personally think the demand is largely there, it's 'just' COVID is getting in the way. As it seems we'll be able to live with Omicron (as it's spreading so quickly it'll be over more quickly) and that the UK is indicating no curbing of travel, it does genuinely look like we 'could' get back to normal by the spring. Not surprising travel stocks across the board are positive. Especially as it's not about bookings, it's about people actually making the trip when the time comes - a big issue for companies like Tui as it has been hard to see what's coming in 6 months time. Hopefully the lower severity of Omicron will allow the political environment to be more predictable, like we're seeing in the UK.

Thanks!

Or will they just wait for the full year summary?

Is this the reason the sp has been dragging the past 7 days or so?

Nope. Buy out or that’s about it. It’ll be consumed by debt. But no one here really seems to be concerned about debt as there’s a new Spider-Man movie out.

.. from 74p to 81p, but still 'neutral'.

Unless they have a vested interested I'm not aware of, that's very interesting.

Good luck Alex - sounds very similar to me (4 LFs, all negative, then positive PCR). If you are positive, make sure you’re prepared for the worst sore throat you’ve ever had. It’s f****** horrendous.

I think the general position is that the NHS is already on its knees. We have an older population heavily reliant upon the AZ vaccine which doesn’t seem to provide much protection against Omicron. Whilst no one has died (yet) in SA, people are still being admitted to hospital (albeit for 2-3 days rather than 8 as per the case with Delta). Essentially, because Omicron will spread so rapidly, the amount of people who will require hospital primary care will still overwhelm the NHS, at a time when the NHS is always incredibly stretched.

Not my opinion, that’s the argument. The main thing everyone is trying to work out is, how many people per 100,000 will need hospital care. If that number is manageable, we’re in a good spot. Unfortunately is isn’t clear yet.

Yeah exactly. On the basis they’ll all know volume is an issue, especially given the amount of shorts, it’s becoming a bit baffling what they’re waiting for, and how they intend to close the positions when it arrives.

I’m clearly missing something.

It would be fascinating to know what the shorts gameplay is. Unless they truly believe Cine is going bust (which I can’t even see how that could be possible), what are they targeting as their out?

I think we’ll probably see some drops this coming week so maybe that’ll be their chance if there’s volume? Clearly not enough for all though. And once we get to end of Jan and things have settled, it just seems upside to me.

All very strange.

Those numbers include lots of delta cases, the dominant strain in the UK, which obviously aren’t doubling every 2-3 days. Omicron cases are up 50% since yesterday. With all due respect, I suggest David Spiegelhalter’s book, The Art of Statistics.

Give it a couple of weeks. But we won’t actually get there because as with every other time, if we’re on the predicted trajectory, the government will react.

We’ll begin to see some heavy briefing tomorrow and Monday, and expect an update by next weekend.

Once again, incorrect: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom

You can clearly see every Saturday and Sunday on the recent one month chart is lower than the Friday, and then there’s a big spike on Monday as the data catches up.

On a today v last Saturday comparison, it’s plus 25%. The rolling 7 day is plus 12.6%, but would expect that to increase substantially by Tuesday.

Indeed. Two great quotes come to mind, one for the misleading quotes and another for the unnecessary offensiveness:

- “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing”
- “social media made ya’ll way too comfortable disrespecting people and not getting punched in the face”

Exactly, much like my new best friend SmallTrader.

My understanding is that those double jabbed with AZ, whilst full of antibodies, have virtually no protection against Omicron, hence the booster race.

Simply what I’ve read in today’s press. Unlike you, I’m not an epidemiologist.

I am interested to know here you got the 98% antibody rate from?

“Your a moron” - how ironic :)

3 factors to consider:

1) SA use J&J and we predominately used AZ, which is the worst against this variant (I believe that’s right)
2) they have a younger population which we know is important
3) they’ve had so many recent waves, some scientists believe they have quite strong immunity levels, similar to having had a recent booster.

Some or all of the above, plus other possibilities, can help to explain differences by country. But, as anyone with any professional qualifications has been saying, it is simply too early to tell what we’re dealing with.