Member Info for rossannan

viable

Shares not £s though!

Yes, I was in Amerisur. I was late to that “party” so got away relatively unscathed but it’s a good analogy - this is never going to be one for widows and orphans.

“I shall never understand the PI mindset on the AIM . . . nearly always a preference for startups that will go nowhere.”

Wise words - it almost always makes more sense to wait for these companies to get out of the dilution phase (if they ever do). I don’t think the market has really clocked the sunlit upland that PTAL has now reached. Fine by me, I have in the meantime accumulated 200,000 reasons to be cheerful.

Just remember that if RKH get any kind of result, that will be an exception to the rule that in these cases the state usually wins.

Happy to wait. Neglible downside, a dividend etc. For anyone with a little patience, what’s not to like?

The oil price remains the key to that.

The bhoys

I am not promoting these stocks, just saying that I am holding them and have put money into them in the recent past (except SQZ, which I have now been in for a long time).

They are not your idea of up and coming companies - fair enough. On the other hand, I don’t think any of them (except perhaps RKH to an extent) involve the kind of speculation and, frankly, rainbow chasing that we have seen with BPC.

If folk want to put their money in BPC that is up to them, but they shouldn’t put all, or even a significant proportion, of their eggs in one basket case.

SvS

To answer your questions:

1. No - the actual (as opposed to the “available” or including convertibles) cash position needs to be clarified - any time after the upcoming 16 April reconciliation date would be ideal - but what at least is clear is that they are not going to get very far at all with their plans for 21/22 without very significant additional funding of some description. My money is on this being significantly more dilutive than folk expect.
2. No.
3. No, just setting out AIM O&G plays that I see as being to a greater or lesser extent investable (unlike BPC) and accordingly have shares in (unlike BPC).

Folk are indeed free to make their own minds up on whether to invest. I would recommend that they run a mile from this BB (and most other BBs). Look at RNSs. Back test the current position against what was projected in RNSs 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 3 years before. Consider current projections and ask themselves whether they honestly believe it will be different this time. Then run another mile!

SvS

“With current production circa 450bpd & projected production of nearly 10x that at 4000bpd based on successful execution of 30 Wells. What reason is there to suggest the SP would not be 5x higher than where it currently is?”

Until BPC’s financial position is clarified so that we can see how many of these 30 wells can be funded without a raise and we then see how quickly and successfully the first few wells are executed in practice, 5x plus is just speculation based on the rosiest of scenarios (which I would also argue is one way of characterising BPC’s current plans - it is certainly how I see them).

But that for me is the MO of BPC (and of CERP before it) - dressing speculation up as investment with the assistance of local rampers who specialise in convincing themselves and others at length and in detail that their favourite punt is actually an investment.

When I look at my favourite AIM O&G plays and try find a place for them on the scale that goes from investment to speculation, it looks like this:

1. SQZ - good company, solid investment
2. TRIN - good company, solid investment with a speculative edge
3. UOG - good company, nice balance of investment and speculation
4. PTAL - good company, making progress finally controlling risk
5. RKH - not a good company but a straightforward speculation

As things stand I wouldn’t sell any of them to invest in BPC. Which is not to say that I think BPC has further to fall. I just think it is currently uninvestable.

PetroleumInvest

“but its pretty much guaranteed to be 5 or 8 times the price it is now in 2 years time”

Listen to yourself. If you want a return like that, the last thing you will get is anything even close to guarantee.

GarryGraham

That was undoubtedly the post of the day, but far too many folk on here and on other BBs will continue to believe what they want to believe about posts that challenge the rampy consensus.

“Unless there's some trouble in Tanzania”

Not unknown - at least we are attempting to diversify.

I seriously hope so.

saw this coming, I’m sure.

What? They didn’t?

Goodness, that’s a surprise.

Classic mixed bag RNS in the CERP/BPC (birds of a feather) tradition. What more does this company have to do to make the folk who have been ramping this admit the error of their ways and call for a new BoD?

tom111

Fair comment. Echo chambers like Telegram are usually stuffed with the most pernicious and most blinkered rampers and should carry a wealth warning.

CERP-84

Not me.

MarkP1989

Probably nothing that significant, as you suggest, but some good coverage could still work wonders. The first real news catalyst that comes the way of the merged company will be well worth waiting for. Then it really will be game on.

Interesting on a day when my other copper plays are flat or down to see such a near vertical chart. I guess we’ll know soon enough whether this is just a speculative flurry or if the long-awaited deal is happening...

onlybpc

Not me. I may look at this again once more information is available, but I am just not interested at the moment.

I suspect none of us are, but we have been doing this long enough to find those grades genuinely encouraging.