RE: So….what is supposed to be happening today??7 Aug 2025 14:13
sirmark
it is very easy to get aim shares badly wrong over any time period, long or short. at the end of 2021 i felt about ptal and jse something similar to what john2727 felt about txp with his “any sort of share price target should be £3 to £10 on a two year view.”
since then ptal has been a solid performer but jse has been an absolute shocker. and if you had asked me about three weeks ago for a core investment in my favourite sector (gold mining), i would definitely have pointed you at ggp, then 320p. it is 242.5p today.
my point is that pis must at least try to avoid three big traps that aim companies set for them, and txp is such a good example of those three traps.
the first trap, as i said before, is treating bod aspirations as predictions. if you speak to txp they are not going to offer you exclusive, valuable, insights. they are going to tell you what you want to hear. in a sense, that is their job. you can have more confidence, maybe, if they have put their money where their mouths are. the txp bod have not.
the second trap is *** packet cash flow and profitability calculations based on limited financial information - i think you are falling into this one too. look at the way these calculations pepper the txp bb - pis love them - and yet these calculations are never (and i mean never) then vindicated in the audited accounts - it always turns out that something significant has been missed or misunderstood.
the third trap is misunderstanding, or even just ignoring, risk. for txp the existential threat to shareholder value is undoubtedly the debt. you must see that not much more has to go wrong for this level of debt to see the current shareholders diluted towards oblivion while almost everything has to go right if txp shareholder value is to grow in the face of this debt burden.
all the best
ross