Member Info for rossannan

Yes, I meant the bid. The share price action to date suggests at best a lowball offer that will be firmly rejected. AAZ will do just fine, whatever happens. I would happily take a slug of money and run at this stage, but the valuation has to be win win and not daylight robbery.

Poolefox - in that case, from the market’s reaction, it looks like it’s going nowhere.

One presentation aside, not a lot happened while I was away, it would appear.

You can see two distinct camps on this BB: those who believe that this time PB’s aspirations will finally materialise, typified by John2727, and, on the other hand, the cynics who see unreliable geology, ferocious declines and a mountain of debt, who wonder why Shell were so happy to get shot of Central Block and who are very conscious of that mandatory raise.

The John2727 camp, because they seem to believe that they can take PB’s aspirations to the bank, say things like:

“So yes, cash flow matters - but the proper way to look at it shows TXP is still undervalued by 2–3x on today’s numbers.”

Cynics like me look at the balance of risk and reward and just don’t see the appeal, seeing too much risk of further shareholder value destruction.

I think this has got to the point where no one is changing anyone else’s mind and some of the exchanges have become pretty nasty, so I’m going to concentrate on my goldbug stuff and leave this BB alone.

Wishing you all health and happiness.

Ross

John2727 - either that (goodness, I sound really awful) or I just think your need a more objective approach to analysing TXP that doesn’t involve repeatedly seeking reassurance from a CEO who has repeatedly disappointed you.

Passing it on? Relaying it? Disseminating it? I am not suggesting that John2727 has a podcast (thank goodness he doesn’t).

Ayecuramba - starts tomorrow.

John2727 goes to the source and is told what he wants to hear. It keeps him invested and by broadcasting it he keeps others invested. It is not a good strategy. He does not engage as critically as he thinks he does : “poor comms” is absolute nonsense. PB either lied or was unaware of something a competent CEO would have been aware of.

If the Discord crew were actually engaging critically with TXP, PB would have been out on his ear a long time ago. Base your decisions on what a CEO does rather than on what he says and you cannot go too far wrong. Otherwise he will, aided and abetted by your fellow PIs, talk you into holding all the way down.

John2727

“Discord ran the Q2 numbers several weeks before they dropped (revenues, cash, VAT, restricted cash) and were bang on.”

Did Discord have a go at ex CB Q2 production? Or, like TXP, did they decide it was something best left buried in the global figure?

“PB’s interview wording - ‘the bank didn’t force us’ - was clumsy wording in the interview - yes. Reality: it was a negotiated condition from the start to secure the full $30m and be fully funded. Poor comms, not a lie.”

Have a word with yourself - how is that not a lie?

Discord: teaching investors the difference between information and insight since 2015.

Supersport - I loved that sirmark spotted the similarity between TXP and a blazing fire. It was a real moment of clarity for him.

Still not a huge amount. Any ideas what’s behind this increased volume?

Stas20 - I can see how as soon as the conversation turns to declines, debt and dilution it all gets a bit uncomfortable and you and your colleagues fall back on personal abuse. You’ll be pleased to know that I’ll shortly be out of your hair for a couple of weeks again, so, to cut to the chase, this one is almost all about gambling and has almost nothing to do with investment. The share price is a third of what it was when the TRIN debacle kicked off but that doesn’t mean that the balance of risk and reward has shifted in your favour. This is a coin toss, not an investment. Paul Baay will be okay though, whatever happens.

Ayecuramba - so when this was in the 40s last year, was being peddled to TRIN shareholders and I was highlighting some of the things that have since brought it this low, I wasn’t right and Ab76, Che7win and the rest of them weren’t wrong?

Supersport - I don’t like to see people losing money on, or taking silly risks with, AIM crap. And TXP is definitely AIM crap - if anyone has money in here that they can’t afford to lose, they should knock it on the head immediately.

When I started looking closely at TXP last year I could see that it was on a bad trajectory and it still seems to be nowhere near a turning point. The local rampers love Central Block of course but that smacks of the classic AIM “let’s do this now” that you so often see when the original plan is falling apart.

Too much debt and dilution to be investable.

By all means take it with a pinch of salt. But timing is important when they’ve got a hefty raise to get away before the end of Q4 and will have to inflict their Q3 results on the market during that quarter. So when I thought they would want to be all systems go on Cas 4/5, they are coming across as worryingly vague (leaving aside the possibility of further operational problems at Cas 4 or disappointing production tests at one or both of Cas 4 and 5, when it would start to get a bit existential for them).

That is my point: “online in Q4” is pathetic. After everything that has happened, TXP shareholders deserve something a lot more specific from PB. I doubt very much that online in Q4 will translate into online in the first 6 weeks of Q4.

That’s killed the vibe here better than I ever could. You would think, knowing exactly what needed to be done, they would have set everything up for the rubber hit the road as soon as the cash became available. And, in the world of AIM O&G, in QX rarely means in the first month of QX.

Says it all. Discord has become an app for PIs to help each other lose money (whatever their original intentions). If you are looking for reassurance you will always find it, but how has that been working out?

Ayecuramba

“less trolling”

Funny that. Certainly a safe space for rampers. Folk who were once all over the plateau theory of Cascadura production can quietly bury it and never mention it again. Instead they can embrace the new best thing - Central Block. Until that goes south, anyway. TXP built a debt pile fit for a company it can never now become. Switch into Barrick, I would.

Seriously Josh, don’t do it.

All I have in that space is PR1, which is just a punt and could go either way.

Supersport - I am probably invested in some of them!