Member Info for rossannan

Piltick

The potential problem for medium to long term investors is that the SP will be impacted not only by the fundamentals of the business but also by the number of shares issued along the way. You have to look at the BoD and decide whether they have something to offer the folk who are currently shareholders or whether those folk are, for this BoD, simply a means to an end. The jury is still out on that one, IMO, but that 25tpd unit seems to be struggling to get off the drawing board and as time goes on bills have to be paid. All may yet end well, but the outcome for the current shareholders and the outcome for future shareholders who make well timed purchases could still be very different things.

jabberba

Or are they just PIs with a better handle than most on what’s going on here? Look at the last 12 months - the share price action, the number of shares issued, the slippage on the 25tpd unit. What is “talking normally” about PHE if it isn’t hearing both sides of the argument? And, running with your conspiracy theory just for the moment, how exactly would their skeptical BB posts benefit market makers?

Catscan

You didn’t answer the question. How big is your short?

Catscan

You said that you are “making a fortune here”.

How does that work? The low disclosure threshold for net short positions and the absence of any such disclosure by you, currently or historically, suggests that you are making, at best, a nice turn. Certainly not a fortune. Unless, that is, you failed to disclose your net short position when you should have (in which case the FCA may want a word with you).

How big is your short?

I would suggest that the key figure in the Q2 update will be the bank balance rather than any production figure.

Production can sometimes be a bit of a red herring, either way. The trick may be to follow the money. LK told us the bank balance in the Q1 update ($4.1million) so he will almost certainly tell us the current bank balance in the Q2 update.

It would be a red flag if he doesn’t, as it would be if he does tell us the bank balance and it is significantly down (after all, the big Spanish costs were, if the 26th March RNS is to be believed, incurred in Q1 and any costs associated with the outstanding deals will not be that significant in Q2 given that those deals aren’t due to complete until Q3).

If though the current bank balance is $4.1million or higher, that will mean that all is well, even if the headline production figures are a little disappointing.

Rugby2015

Or put another way, LK shouldn’t give quotes like that without at least some clarification or explanation.

BMB “Which hopefully would mean that the average for q2 2018would be closer to 525-550bod than 503bod ? Would it not? I think it definitely shows progress.” Not really. Bear in mind that after the problems in January, February averaged 541 bopd and March averaged 542 bopd, while the EOY peak last year was 561 bopd. If the Q2 average is 550 bopd or less, LK may not be the well whisperer that he seemed to be.

BMB

Thanks, but that’s just Q1, which we already knew about. For LK to say on June 20 without further explanation or clarification that “we are now producing around 500-600 bopd from Goudron” seems a bit of a red flag, production-wise.

https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/data/short-positions-daily-update.xls

Catscan

“making a fortune here”

Not really though. The low disclosure threshold for net short positions and the absence of any such disclosure by you, currently or historically, suggests that you are making, at best, a nice turn. Certainly not a fortune. Unless, that is, you failed to disclose your net short position when you should have (in which case the FCA may want a word with you).

That last interview has left the question of production more than a little confused. LK should maybe have decided some time ago to adopt a more consistent approach and forget about giving snapshots of current production, which can be artificially low or artificially high. Reporting simply the quarterly average plus the average for each month (or at least for the final month) of the quarter would be one way forward - this would give a pretty good idea of the trajectory - and any production figure given at any other time could simply be the average for the last calendar month. As things stand, the trajectory now seems unclear. What was the point of talking about 500-600bopd without qualification or explanation?

JR710 Good spot.

BlobBlob Looks from that interview as if there’s a bit of expectation management going on, management of LK’s own expectations (as offerman points out, he has in the past perhaps been a little too excitable) and management of some shareholders’ expectations. Not so much management of the market’s expectations though as the more restrained picture that LK now seems to be painting is arguably already reflected in the share price.

offerman Reading between the lines, I think LK has moved away from the idea of a big deal this year but is still looking to do a “material” deal (not one of the two deals we already know about) at some point this year.

Exactly.

SRS69 If production was significantly below the low case - and that is where any decline from the Q1 average would take it - the market would have been told before now. CERP were talking about low case end of year Group production of 900+ bopd and have also been talking about low case end of year Goudron production of 800+ bopd. Not the same thing. WF had an initial hiccup and is as usual (and predicted by LK) a slow burner, but we have no reason to believe, that aside, that it is not working as hoped. How was your coffee with the TRIN BoD this morning?

LTID Sorry, just back in, will get right on it in the next Love Island ad break.

SRS69 Obviously, but why would it have declined?

Not me although I realise now that this was a chance to kill two birds with one stone - TRIN AGM and a TXP presentation.

Newboy58 “they have intergrated into a micro grid to power the park” Is that what the RNS says? I would suggest that the words of the RNS were chosen carefully. Some electricity has certainly been supplied, but enough to power the whole park? Hence my argument that this is non-news. Shareholders, if they know what’s good for them, want to hear about progress towards a viable 25tpd unit. The longer it takes a viable 25tpd unit to appear, the more they will be diluted.