Member Info for rossannan

TCGLOVER

Good one. If you don’t want to read a skeptical take on CERP, just use the filter button.

LGO-fan

“boost our war chest for the SWP”

I would suggest that the Steeldrum assets are too marginal to reverse the current cash burn, at least in the short term, and that at this rate LK’s SWP “war chest” will end up being the new LIND facility. LK’s original story was a production portfolio that would at least wash its face, allowing the Schroders cash to be conserved for the SWP and enabling deal making from a position of financial strength. How that story has changed. This will only become interesting again once the cash burn has been eliminated. The new LIND facility suggests that that will take a while.

Garnhiem.

“Yeah, it was Ross re: 4p‚ but I don’t listen to him much! (He is into manipulation tho) He makes out he doesn’t even know about 50+ years of EOR and what fields have been exploited by it, but I suspect he bats the other way, with his opinion of share ‘Purchases’.”

That’s a pity, I didn’t think you were one of those who posted about posters. Consider the possibility that folk who disagree with you about CERP don’t have bad motives but simply see a story that has changed significantly with disappointing production and significant cash burn.

Anyway, since you mention EOR, have you had any luck yet finding examples of significant profitable EOR undertaken in T&T?

goupplease As I have said, I post mainly on ADVFN. Paid poster - that old chestnut!

Teacup64

Filtered.

TCGLOVER

No, I was in for months. Missed my chance to get in at 2p on the day LK took over but eventually got in at an average of just under 2.7p and then out at an average of just over 6.6p well before the end of the year. It’s all there on this BB - your recollection is wrong.

TCGLOVER No, just over 6.6p - it’s all there in my posts from last year.

HH My point is that that “good move” was not LK’s move, he wanted the opposite. You might want to reassess him, and the prospects for CERP LTHs, on that basis.

HH And, by the way, Northpole2’s comments about discounted placings do seem a little ironic given that LK asked if he could play with that toy and had it confiscated instead...

HH Not that good a post. Unfortunately I was unable to respond on that particular ADVFN thread - I had just been banned for saying things about CERP that folk on there didn’t want to hear - but this was my response on another thread to Northpole2’s second and third paragraphs: “I am not necessarily disagreeing with the arguments that you have taken such issue with - you can certainly argue that Steeldrum is essentially a fig leaf for Goudron, while CERP using the LIND facility does look like a cast iron certainty to me, whatever CERP’s management may have told you - but these arguments, well made or not, are not mine.” This is the problem - once some folk pick up that what you have written has a skeptical take they seem to be afraid to look too closely at it. Hence Northpole2’s misattribution of holly day’s arguments to me. As for Northpole2’s first paragraph, it shows the kind of complacency about dilution that is equivalent to holding your wallet open in front of you and closing your eyes. Accretive is as accretive does. LK has been talking the talk but it has become increasingly clear that he has not been walking the walk. So what he says and how he choose to label things is of less interest these days. Cash burn is still the elephant in the room and when LK cracks open that “just in case” LIND facility we will see just how accretive Steeldrum actually is.

Garnhiem.

Any luck yet finding examples of significant profitable EOR undertaken in T&T?

Scarface72

I can’t speak for joebop or LLL but I bought at an average of just under 2.7p and sold at an average of just over 6.6p. It was a coherent and credible story when I bought and it still was when I sold (I just thought that the share price had got a bit ahead of itself). Since then the story has gradually changed and, now that it has, I just don’t see any urgency about getting back in. Cash burn is the elephant in the room. As I said, let’s see what the market makes of it when (not if) LK cracks open that LIND facility.

HH

I have already and could not find any examples of significant profitable EOR undertaken in T&T to date. My point is that we have seen a gradual downgrading of LK’s expectations from Goudron and therefore from Goudron WF. Time will tell, but I suspect that these seemingly tired old fields are just not going to generate the capital that LK will need for the SWP. Merely being operationally cash flow positive does not cut it. Obviously LK does have some capital at the moment but he seems to be burning through that, so I think he will be cracking open that LIND facility sooner rather than later. No doubt he will give a positive reason for doing so.

burnie38

It is about trying to figure out what is going on here. Simple as that.

Garnhiem.

The link just goes to the Google home page.

burnie38

I thought you had a similarly skeptical take:

“more like let down may,no completion of bolt or icacos,share price stagnant,feels more like the lgo days of jam tomorrow but never happens”

“this has been on a downward trend now for nearly a year now since the initial spike of the so called new era,different name same dog promises of jam tomorrow never happens,pointless rns today nothing new since the april rns not completed yet so what was the point,it`s just a typical aim share and will end up like ukog back down to a penny share,think a lot of people might end up with egg on their faces and the bod could see their reputations tarnished from this dog,the man from schroders might be looking for a new job.there is only ever going to be one winner in aim and it`s not the shareholders,i think vsa need to revise their target lower 26p that is just fantasy we can`t even hold 5p so what chance of 26p”

“All pointing towards a disappointing Q2 same old same old jam tomorrow, bopd down cash burn up I guess that's what today's rns is telling us,the market seems to agree.”

“dear oh dear things not looking to great here,need a bloody good q2 update for the tide to turn but don`t think we are going to get it and the market knows,think they will wait as long as possible before releasing it.”

Garnhiem.

Have you got any examples of significant profitable EOR undertaken in T&T to date?

PinWiz

I do not intend to invest anytime soon. My reading of this is that the SWP is being kicked further down the road and I do not see the attraction until it becomes clear how that is going to be funded, not now that Plan A seems to have run into trouble. Now that the story has changed significantly, I am no longer interested in the story, just the figures, quarter by quarter.

Garnhiem.

Is secondary recovery the way forward? It is not really working for RRL and, although it is very early days yet, there is no evidence that it is working for CERP. What is more, CERP have now taken on assets for some of which secondary recovery is the last, best hope. If you were going to be diluted, would you not rather have been diluted to crack on with the SWP? Are you happy to wait until mid-2019 for the SWP now?

LK had a strategy that looked elegant, focused and 100% your type on paper. This new road map though looks increasingly muddled. I have not finished watching all the videos yet - maybe all will become clear. But I doubt it. LK will be turning to that LIND facility before you know it - what I have seen so far has a distinct air of unreality when it comes to CAPEX, which in turn means that the whole “just in case” thing does not ring true. 1000bopd+ EOY does not sound realistic either and calling CERP a “safe bet” is at best frankly silly. There are no safe bets on AIM, particularly in this sector.

Taking the LIND facility out of its wrapping will be a key indicator, as will be the monthly MEEI Bulletins and, as ever, the quarterly cash balance. Everything apart from that will be mostly just noise, I suspect. I am sure it will all come good eventually, but how many shares will be in issue by then?

really should be taken to task by PHE’s significant shareholders for not owning up to the now announced slippage earlier than they did. The signs have been there for external observers, but the BoD must have known for certain that this slippage was going to happen, and be material, long before now.

sellonnews

That was all about RRL and what an awful, awful company it is, with a spider’s web of loans. Completely different thing. There is no reason to suspect that any of CERP’s outstanding deals will not go through, even if they do drag on a bit.

4p