Member Info for rossannan

tidd83

My point is that some of the barrels will be properly incremental and some of them will be replacement barrels. What the market is not liking is that with the additional CAPEX that these 4 wells will involve, a placing looks more likely than ever.

DeanVM

That news is just telling us something we knew already.

tidd83 “The additional fourth quarter capital is expected to add incremental production volumes in early 2019”

PhotographerLTP I would say that it is an RNS that you can argue back and forth and that there are both positives and negatives in it, but there are no nasty surprises, IMO.

tidd83 There is no chance of 2500 bopd. These additional wells may be drilled in Q4 2018 but they won’t really contribute until Q1 2019.

PhotographerLTP

It was good, thanks, more interesting and accessible than I expected. I like the sound of those wine fairs - that must have been quite a budget to play with!

I’ve been enjoying the TXP journey but hopped off the bus after Thursday’s RNS. I will see what tomorrow’s RNS brings but certainly plan to get back on sooner or later. I’m not as keen on Malcy as I once was - he highlights some companies like TXP that have a lot going for them but he also recommends some real shockers - in my experience he has been just too slow to criticise some really bad BoDs.

Cheers!

PhotographerLTP Back now. Most recent position appears to be that they are planning to commence exploration drilling on the Ortoire block in Jan 2019 (see AGM YouTube presentation).

PhotographerLTP Likewise - enjoy your walk - I am off to a Book Festival event way above my head this afternoon. 2019 hasn’t always been the stated year though - at the back end of last year PB apparently said (121 Oil and Gas Investor Presentations): "Four of the 20 wells planned for 2018 will be exploration wells drilled on the Ortoire Block.” These guys are worth watching for the way that the story changes over time. This is hardly unique to TXP and is something that you just learn to factor in.

Arai

Important to remember that Ortoire is exploration though, not development drilling, and it is not yet clear exactly when it will kick off, other than it won’t now be this year, or exactly how it will be funded (see tomorrow’s RNS for more on that).

PhotographerTLP

That expectation was widely shared, which is why the share price is off a bit since the RNS.

PhotographerTLP

KUMS hits the nail on the head though - fully funded for this year’s wells. Next year’s wells? More of a moot point, particularly after that last production update came in around 100 bopd lower than I for one would have expected.

PhotographerTLP

Yes, the new drilling should keep production on an upward trajectory. For a while though recompletions etc. seemed to be taking care of declines by themselves but last week’s RNS revealed that instead of all the barrels from the new drilling being properly incremental barrels, some of them are still properly incremental barrels but the rest of them, taking up the slack left by the recompletions etc., are really replacement barrels.

PhotographerTLP It’s not speculation, it’s just maths. I don’t see why it would be anything to do with maintenance because we’re talking about a five month period, Feb-Jul, and you would think that if July had just been a blip due to maintenance the RNS would have mentioned that. I certainly don’t see why TXP would deliberately slow production. They need to generate all the cash they can or what now looks to me like an inevitable placing will arrive sooner rather than later. Tomorrow’s results will offer some useful insights into how the cash is flowing.

tidd83 The new wells are not all worked into upside - the RNS on Thursday of last week revealed around 100* bopd of declines over the last 5 months not matched by recompletions and other workovers. *TXP was increasing production without drilling (i.e. from workovers, including recompletions) at the start of this year. Some of this was down to end 2017 workovers gaining traction and some of it was down to fresh workovers. The 14 March RNS showed that at the end of February, immediately before their first 2018 well came on line, production was around 1649 bopd. That is your base output. The RNS told us that in July TXP did 1757 bopd and that the first five 2018 wells contributed 204 bopd of that. This means that everything else produced 1553 bopd, showing that over the last five months 96 bopd of declines were not matched by workovers, in other words a near 100 bopd decline in base output which will presumably be repeated over the next five months so that further new 2018 wells are not all worked into upside either.

findahappyplace

Thank you. It’s what you need.

Garnhiem.

They weren’t very profitable though, not if a certain bargepole plc is anything to go by!

Garnhiem.

What were the fields in T&T where CO2 (or any EOR) was very successful?

HH

That kind of offer, a wee one for five, for example, would hardly be skullduggery - as I said, I think it would be a smart move - holders would have the opportunity to avoid dilution without relying on the market and the funds would give LK the time to let everything he has taken on (really quite a lot) bed in (or, if you like, they would give recent investment the time to pay off). And the LIND facility would then actually be no more than an insurance policy. In fact, I think that kind of offer would turn this on a sixpence. Folk would presumably be allowed to apply for any excess meaning stickier homes for more shares. What’s not to like? The alternative is a real risk of a bit of a crunch, IMO.

HH Can’t happen though, now that Resolution 5 didn’t pass, unless everyone gets a proportional entitlement. That kind of offer would be a smart move, IMO.

Garnhiem. From past experience, that is certainly possible.

TCGLOVER Posts crossed I think, I was answering your 15:55 post.