Member Info for rossannan

armatrading

Yes, we’ll just have to wait for the final definition of “small onshore producer”. For example, you may not fall within the definition if you are a big offshore producer in another jurisdiction!

ab76

Fair point, I was forgetting about the West Coast assets and just subtracting East Coast production from the total.

armatrading

For the detail, I resorted to trawling through the YouTube feed. It is at 2:51. It sounds like the proposed 2000bopd threshold is not set in stone but it is a potentially awkward figure for BPC if the figures in the recent RNS are to be believed (“building to 2,500 bopd (net) by the end of 2021”). However the figures in that RNS seem to have come straight from Leo Koot’s wishful thinking playbook, so are perhaps not to be believed!

https://youtu.be/1GEeR6OLGj0

Is the 2000bopd “small onshore producer” threshold that folk are talking about on ADVFN an aside that Imbert made last night? I started watching him on the YouTube feed but did not stay the course and picked up the broad details later in the evening.

Perhaps 2000bopd is just the accepted legislative definition of a “small onshore producer” in T&T? I looked at the SPT Section (Section 11 on p. 118) of the Budget Statement this morning but could not see any reference to this figure.

Can anyone shed some light on this?

armatrading

The interesting point here is the definition of a “small onshore producer”.

jimtheknow

Yes, I was watching it last night. Too little too late. The current opposition had more radical proposals - it’s a real shame that they did not get in. The PNM are just not business friendly.

dubed

As I explained at the time it looked to me like equity might have to take one for the team to unlock the other funding, so I didn’t see the point in investing until that had happened. I say unlocked because BPC was effectively locked out of the other funding. The conditions of the Family Office arrangements had been breached and the Conditional Convertible Notes had this key condition:

“The Group having sufficient cash reserves such that, when aggregated with the total facility funding, would be sufficient to finance the execution of the planned exploration well”.

So you can see how the placing appears to provide a way forward. Everyone will have their own idea about where the share price will be when P1 spuds. I reckon I have a more than decent chance of doubling my money, but fair play if you anticipate a more muted performance.

dubed

Maybe not, but now that there is some clarity on funding this is not going to spud in the 2s and I would bet (in fact am betting) that it will not spud in the 3s and maybe not even the 4s, whether it should or not. Doubling your money in 2-3 months with limited risk certainly works for me!

Starchild

1. Earlier today you were saying:

“...some CERP folks did not want to share a potential £500m market cap company with us lot! I’m pleased we merged, because……

(3) Even if the £500m Leo vision is ‘only’ £250m in the next 2-3 years, this represents the first 6.3p of our future SP (assuming 4b shares)...”

Fair play, you are now later in the day being a little more careful with your assessment of CERP’s potential. I would say quite right too - see my earlier comments about Leo Koot.

2. No, but as before I have opened long spread bet.

3. See above.

4. What negativity? I have been pointing out that there are the makings of a cracking pre-drill excitement trade here.

Qnard

A good question for BPC given the amount of water that has passed under the bridge since the original CERP RNS.

Starchild

“I also find it totally uncouth to doubt the integrity of Leo (CERP CEO) almost implying he wilfully misled shareholders.”

Saying that Leo Koot appears to be a better salesman than an oilman is not doubting his integrity. He could be as honest as the day is long but still be the wrong man for the job. His track record at CERP is a litany of rosy scenarios that did not pan out. AIM O&G executives make a lot of what can (and should) properly be described as aspirational statements (read the small print). If investors think that they can take statements like that to the bank they are misleading themselves, not being misled. Are you seriously buying into the idea that CERP was a £500M company in the making?

Qnard

Is the free carry still in place?

Qnard

The CERP assets are largely irrelevant right now, BPC is all about P1 and will be until there is a drill result.

Qnard

No, it’s not a fair bet, there is no realistic scenario which would see your charity winning.

Qnard

If you think it’s more like early next year, are you sure you still want to bet on Saffron 2 spudding before Christmas? I’m happy to bet against Saffron 2 spudding this year but if you think about the palaver that was involved with Saffron 1 and indeed the madness of trying to run anything like Saffron 2 parallel to P1, that is still a bet that it is pretty much impossible for your charity to win.

Qnard

Seriously, you would bet £100 on Saffron 2 spudding before Christmas?

onlybpc

There will be a lot more shares around on that day, but why would it be sold down below 2p? I see that the oil price is now improving slightly. If that continues this week it should bolster sentiment. There is undoubtedly some right old rampy nonsense posted on here from time to time, but I genuinely can’t see much of a short term bear case at the current share price. Who was talking about 1.2p? Are you sure they weren’t talking about what the share price would do in a duster scenario?

Northfields

Agreed - it will go up in its own good time. The placing price has arguably established base camp. If you’re in this for the pre-drill excitement it is now just down to when and in what order the milestones come and whether there are any hiccups along the way, but anyone just wanting a decent exit ahead of the drill result should get what they want.

bynari

Or I could simply be a PI calling out Starchild for a take on CERP that arguably bears little relation to reality. As I have said before, Leo Koot’s endlessly revised ‘Roadmap’ took CERPers from roughly 2p to, even right now, the equivalent of something less than that. CERP (like LGO/Leni before it) was always about to happen but never did. Bigmj has made the good point that the merger offers former CERPers with significant liquidity to sell into when they deem that the time is right. BPC is a much cleaner and clearer (albeit riskier) proposition - CERP has rightly been relegated to the sidelines. Let’s keep it there!

Starchild

In other words the CERP assets are barely even a sideshow. P1 is all that matters here.