Member Info for rossannan

willibobs33

“What that sp will be come mid to late Dec is anyones guess. 4, 5, 8,10, 20, 25p and anything in between is all achievable.”

Seriously, 25p? A £1BN MCAP before spud? I wish. Unrealistic speculation just gives the bull case a bad name.

Uh-oh, here comes a Twitter ramp. Soon BPC will just need a Telegram group for the full ramper’s toolkit...

DT

Agreed. I gave up trying to call the oil price a long time ago. It is a mechanism with so many moving parts that predictions are almost worthless. It definitely feeds into sentiment though, even in exploration plays. If the oil price rises at the right time for my BPC trade, great. If it drifts down, so be it. As long as it doesn’t crater, the trade should still be a good one.

DT

Yes, that’s why spud will call time on this for me if I’m still in. At that point the drill risk kicks in, not just the risk of a disappointing result but the risk of some kind of drilling failure.

Rocket13

“Well someone would be happy to buy your shares then”

And I look forward to meeting that person in the 4s. They can take my shares and go after the big prize with my blessing. Double my money in 10 weeks without taking significant downside risk? What’s not to like?

Everyone has their own angle on this, but for me it is just a trade. An all or (next to) nothing gamble doesn’t work for me.

Oultonmike

If there is a flaw in your 7p spud prediction it is probably not your suggestion that a “major oil find” would spike BPC to 20p+. By “major oil find” you presumably mean the kind of oil find that the majors end up fighting over. 20p+ seems quite possible on a “major oil find”, even allowing for known (and maybe some unknown) dilution.

The flaw in your prediction may be your dividing of that 20p+ by 3. There does appear to be a consensus on here around a 1 in 3 CoS, but the CoS is not the same as the chance of a “major oil find”. Success can come in all shapes and sizes. So maybe you should be dividing 20p+ by 4 or 5 or even 6 to better reflect the chances of success that constitutes a “major oil find”.

On the other hand, pre-drill excitement can be quite something to behold and the odds can sometimes go out of the window, at least for a while. Timing is everything. For those like me aiming to sell on or before spud the trick will be getting out just before everyone else with the same plan decides to sell.

I’ll be more than happy with an exit in the 4s. Anything more would be a real bonus.

BO55MKD

That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the best option. It also appears to be available on IG.

BO55MKD

Spreadex

500,000 shares (no intention of buying any more) and the equivalent of 250,000 shares in spread bets (but I will understand if you only count the real shares).

jimtheknow

Cogent analysis. The one thing I would say is that the deeper, Lower Cruse, play that Saffron was targeting perhaps has more potential than you suggest - it may be a mistake to tar that field with the sort of problems (e.g. lack of pressure) encountered at Goudron. But all the variables/risk certainly militate against prioritising it right now.

They are quite addictive.

jimtheknow

“Onshore exploration plays in T&T were never going to be like the roulette wheels of offshore Guyana, GoM, Bahamas (?) etc.”

TXP investors would beg to differ.

jimtheknow

Would you be interested in hearing from a long term CERP bear with a very basic run down of why he thought CERP made a bad investment at the time with some basic numbers to support that thinking?

Prospect-

What shorts?

Bespoke

Have to agree with POTUS though that it will mainly be PIs who take the bet on the drill result - were you suggesting otherwise?

Bespoke

Agreed, could not resist topping up my real shares earlier and my SB just now.

Harryoffdock

I don’t think that many folk on here are expecting Stena to do anything other than fulfill their contract in exchange for cash. The great thing about the placing (if a placing can ever be great) is that the funding package it has unlocked should ensure that P1 goes ahead, whatever Stena decide.

most folk on here are planning to exit on or before spud!

Tiburn

“They need to focus now on the material development for CERP asset with Saffron 2 drill and the 300m of oil sands evaluation...”

Please no. If I catch them spending a cent more than they have to on the assets of the former CERP before P1 even spuds...

armatrading

Yes, we’ll just have to wait for the final definition of “small onshore producer”. For example, you may not fall within the definition if you are a big offshore producer in another jurisdiction!