Member Info for rossannan

ZagEgypt

Why? At the end of the day one stale bull is not going to change the outcome for anybody. If you don’t want to read his particular take on all this, just use the filter button. Out of sight and out of mind.

So we sailed up to the sun
'Til we found a sea of green
And we lived beneath the waves
In our yellow submarine

Linton78

Assuming it’s the mid price we’re guessing, I’ll go for 5.75p.

This is a difficult exercise in valuation. I was just now posting about this on ADVFN.

I have been unable to find a (current) research note of any kind on OMI. It is a small AIM gold miner with an undeveloped asset that two of the top 10 gold majors (Nos. 1 and 8) are looking to earn their shares in. Clearly a very attractive situation but not an easy one to analyse, so maybe no research note exists (yet). I have certainly been unable to track one down. I registered with the house broker (SP Angel) but they have nothing to offer and I have been unable to find anything on Research Tree. I am in with a 3.5p average and do not want to sell too early, but to say that I am now overweight here is an understatement. Before I sell it would be great to see someone else’s take on it all (independent or not - all research notes should of course be taken with a pinch of salt). Can anyone else help?

My own extremely rudimentary approach to valuation is to assume that the majors would not be involved if this wasn’t highly likely to be a 5Moz or, if you like, $10BN resource. Then I ask myself how much of that $10BN will, at the end of the day, realistically translate into bottom line profit for the owners. Let’s say $2BN. So if OMI ends up with 25% of that, it suggests that the share price has very significant headroom. But we are looking at income earned over a period of years and starting many years down the line, it is possible that the resource may not be quite what it appears to be, some dilution may occur through share issuance by OMI or OMI may not be able to hold on to as much as a 25% share of the asset. I could go on. This is why I would love to see someone else’s stab at valuing what OMI have here.

https://ewnews.com/letters-to-the-editor-no-oil-drilling-with-out-of-date-eia

LTID

Why are we waiting?

Every little helps.

Basscadet

Fair comment.

This is not the MRx0518 news I am holding out for.

jollygoodya

What news in particular?

Zarquon

Late again!

onlybpc

I think GG sums it all up pretty well. CERP had been loss making for a while, with Leo Koot increasingly less than open about the cash burn (see e.g. his cancellation of the quarterly updates). Hence the accumulated LIND debt around CERP’s neck and the direct line from that debt to the dumping of BPC shares by Trafalgar (and the damage that this did to the BPC share price).

In the ultra short term this could indeed go either way. In the merely short term the question maybe has to be “What next on MRx0518?” Taking what the Company said last month at face value (“The Company expects to make further announcements from Part B as appropriate throughout 2020 and into 2021), I am hanging on in here. First purchase in the low 40s and current average just under 50. I missed a great trading opportunity at the recent high, but there you go. This feels like the cutting edge of the cutting edge and I want to be a part of it.

Kerching

Smart move.

So we sailed up to the sun
'Til we found a sea of green
And we lived beneath the waves
In our yellow submarine

is the problem here. I am holding my 300,000 OMI very tightly but it would be great to have some project specific figures or analysis to confirm what we have here. We have some mouth watering historical grades, fascinating nearby comparators and commitments from majors that speak for themselves. I guess that we just have to be patient, perhaps very patient by AIM standards. The reward for our patience could well be something utterly transformational. In the meantime, if anyone comes across any useful analysis that takes us further forward, please share it on here.

ZagEgypt

I was agreeing with you. That is why I said “[t]he timing and nature of the coming news flow [e.g. re the CLNs] will certainly be the key - there’s probably only so far it’s going to go [e.g. 2.5p] without another RNS.” I do occasionally agree with other posters, just to mix it up a bit.

Rickierich

Fair play to anyone nimble enough to achieve that, but I’m not sure it’s really that predictable given all the possible news flow. Happy to load up now and just see where it’s at closer to spud.

ZagEgypt

The timing and nature of the coming news flow will certainly be the key - there’s probably only so far it’s going to go without another RNS. But, 10 days into a 10 week trade, I’m in no rush. Saying that, I did pick up another 79,316 in two lots just now, taking me to 579,316. I’ve a divi due early next month but there’s no guarantee that it will still be 2.5p or better at that point. Could of course be back at 2p. Who knows? All part of the fun.

keith1

Exactly.

Well, the dividend is something anyway. If the political risk could somehow be removed this would probably re-rate to £2.

Rob1967

This is undoubtedly the best 3.5p I ever spent, but the lead times make OMI very hard to value at this stage. It will be years before a properly grounded valuation is available. In the meantime it could be a bit of a speculative rollercoaster. But our partners are all about the long game and they certainly seem keen to play, so I think we just need to hold tight through the ups and downs.