Member Info for rossannan

ZagEgypt

Yes, the important thing for me is that at spud the drill risk kicks in, not just the risk of a disappointing result at the end of the 40-60 days but of some LGO-style mishap. That is why the shutters have to come down at that point.

Jim1556

The important thing for me is to sell out completely on or before spud - if I can do better than the 4s for my real shares that will be great but my SBs are currently set to close at 4.8p, whatever happens. BPC will remain on my watchlist so I will still be posting. I hope that even though I am currently in for the gift that is the pre-drill excitement trade, I have nevertheless managed to remain uber critical, particularly of the store that some folk seem to set by the former CERP assets.

ZagEgypt

As you suggest, I will be happy with an exit in the 4s. As long as I’m out on or before spud, I’m good.

Tiburn

What’s the RBL case for a producer of at best 500 barrels of probably still unprofitable oil per day? What other reserves can it establish this late in the day? All the testing at Saffron has (apparently) been done and no material positives seem to have emerged from that while Saffron 2 clearly isn’t going to happen before P1 and the same can presumably be said of the EWTs in Suriname...

Lancygeo

For good or for ill, your investment hinges on P1. The former CERP assets are just a sideshow. I was pretty unimpressed that Simon Potter appeared to take dictation from Leo Koot in that 13th August RNS - the figures in it really do not stand up to critical analysis. Hopefully though BPC were just humouring him and still have their eyes on the real prize, meaning that we will hear lots about P1 at lunchtime and very little about the former CERP assets.

P1 is where the money is, whether you are trading the pre-drill excitement or gambling on the drill result. I fired various questions off to BPC yesterday about the former CERP assets. So far they have only responded to one of my questions, which was how much oil (a rough bopd average being fine) the Saffron well is currently producing. They simply referred me to the relevant web page:

https://www.bpcplc.com/operations/trinidad/bonasse-icacos-cedros-production-development/

Not a lot going on at Saffron by the looks of things.

Robbla

So you think the tick down would have happened anyway? Do the trades and volume not suggest otherwise?

Robbla

It’s the volume and the timing of the volume that links the tick down to the RNS. The RNS clearly implies that nothing is expected from Stena, some folk bought into the idea that Stena would farm in or subscribe, hence the sales and the tick down.

Robbla

Must be the Stena factor then.

And there’s the tick down...

The timetable extension that 2020Vision highlighted may explain the share price reaction to this RNS - if anything the share price looks likely to tick down - but I suspect that this is more to do with the clear implication in this RNS that nothing is expected from Stena. But that was not very realistic in the first place, so arguably this will come to be seen as a positive RNS and I’m glad that I got my final top done ahead of it. The road ahead seems clearer now. The presentation will be interesting. It could be a disappointment for folk with unrealistic expectations around the former CERP assets, but hopefully not on the P1 front.

Lancygeo

The PRD RNS is a sideshow compared to the CLN RNS that has just appeared.

Happy with that RNS. Surprised no share price reaction as seems to quash R13’s suggestion of a further placing. Maybe it also quashes the idea of a Stena farm in, but that was never very realistic anyway.

I see that Tamesis Partners’ Notes on SHG are available (for personal use only) if you register with them.

brynjon

The filter button is a good call.

So we sailed up to the sun
'Til we found a sea of green
And we lived beneath the waves
In our yellow submarine

http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/oct/19/oil-exploration-fears-eco-centric-mecca/

willec

How much do you think Saffron is currently producing?

Obadhia

It was available on the CERP website until recently, but my link to it now seems to be dead (https://columbus-erp.com/investors/scheme-of-arrangement/). This is a pity because it was a real mine of information.

If your recollection is correct, I would expect that the reason we have not heard more is that the results were not impressive. This would follow in the great CERP/LGO tradition of going quiet on the disappointing stuff (e.g. waterflood at Goudron).

seems to be heading towards a crossroads - I’m not clear when we will hear more about new business etc. - but the value case still seems to be intact.

LTID

I have sent BPC your testing question and my one about whether the free carry still applies. I will let you know if I hear back from them.

LTID

Good question. Back in April we were told “in the coming months, we intend to finish our testing campaign”. That was, as you point out, 6 months ago.