Member Info for rossannan

jimtheknow

“it is absolutely about believing them”

I am sure that the BPC BoD are honest in their aspirations for BPC. No doubt Leo Koot was honest in his aspirations for CERP too. But circumstances and bad decisions can frustrate honest aspirations.

You have to look beyond the rhetoric. I am sure that the BPC BoD have been looking to improve on the existing funding arrangements. One problem is that the current climate is not exactly conducive to such improvements.

Their primary problem though is that, as far as we know, they remain locked out of even these existing CLN-based funding arrangements. I have already suggested that, in the current climate and at this late stage, it may not be realistic to expect these arrangements to be replaced. So they need to be unlocked. I expect this to be achieved, but how it will be achieved remains unclear. Neither Bizzells nor the Family Office is a charity and I would expect both of these outfits to be taking a hard headed approach. I think mortgage analogies are badly misplaced - it is time and process that unlocks a mortgage in principle - significantly more than that is needed here.

A positive scenario would be Stena acting as a white knight to unlock and indeed partially replace these arrangements. The black knight scenario, which is arguably becoming more of a possibility as time goes on, is equity taking one for the team. You can of course argue that any unlocking is a good unlocking and that this would be but a scratch.

For the avoidance of doubt, it seems to me that in the current climate any possibility of a significant payment from PRD is receding.

jimtheknow

But it’s not a question of believing the BoD or not - they are not (as far as I am aware) saying anything more than that they are hopeful of unlocking the funding one way or the other. Did I miss a meeting?

oilbaron1

The 12 inch extended funding options mix will continue to occupy the top spot until BPC tell us what the plan is.

willibobs33

It’s a really interesting one.

There are some on here who think that the funding has been unlocked and that we just haven’t been told yet. Highly unlikely, whatever the IceMAX is doing right now.

The most positive unlocking scenario with some basis in reality is probably Stena getting involved and the other funding, as far as it remains necessary, falling into line on the back of that. A Stena farm in seems unlikely - drilling companies don’t make their money by betting on the outcome of exploratory wells - but if Stena took the subscription option they could probably offload enough shares onto eager PIs to make the exercise worthwhile before the IceMAX was even on site.

If Stena don’t become involved though, equity will probably need to take one for the team in time-honoured AIM tradition. That should allow the other funding to fall into line and ignore breached conditions etc. This may sound like a less positive scenario but it is difficult to argue that any unlocking scenario would actually be negative here.

In the current climate I think the chances of a significant payment from PRD are diminishing.

Happy on the sidelines with the oil price where it is right now and interims due (financials, though backward looking, are usually a bit of a reality check in these situations). Anything is possible though.

Hennabibi

There has to be a good chance that, second wave or not, they will drill. They are pretty much at the now or never stage. What the space watchers are waiting to find out is how they are going to unlock the necessary funding. This is only a negative in the sense that after all this time this question has still to be answered. The answer, when it comes, may be viewed as a negative or a positive. Watch this space.

Robbla

The implication being that this is very much standard wording? Afraid not. This relates to BPC’s particular circumstances - breached conditions etc.

brynjon

You said:

“many sources of finance available to BPC”

But on the two big CLN-based sources of finance, BPC’s latest stated position it that it has

“no ability to draw down on the ... convertible loan facilities and there can be no certainty that the facilities will be or remain available for drawdown in the future.”

brynjon

What I am interested in is the basis on which Interestking can say

“We have finance...trust me we have.”

On the face of it, until an RNS says otherwise, BPC currently does not have finance. So the challenge to Interestking is to explain what information he is party to that the market isn’t.

Interestking

That’s all well and good but your challenge is not to share your CV but to back up your statement that

“We have finance...trust me we have.”

So please tell us what you know about finance that we don’t. Are Stena farming in? Or are they subscribing? Or is equity taking one for the team in time-honoured AIM tradition?

Do tell.

Interestking

None of the updates since then have changed the fact that BPC has

“no ability to draw down on the ... convertible loan facilities and there can be no certainty that the facilities will be or remain available for drawdown in the future.”

So your challenge is to back up your statement that

“We have finance...trust me we have.”

So please tell us what you know about finance that we don’t. Are Stena farming in? Or are they subscribing? Or is equity taking one for the team in time-honoured AIM tradition?

Do tell.

Chriskerr100

This isn’t about whether the IceMAX will end up on site in the Bahamas - it seems likely that it will - it’s about how the funding that needs to be unlocked to get it there is going to be unlocked. BPC have gone very quiet on that front, but the clock is ticking.

Petrodollar

All I have seen on funding is what amounts to wishful thinking re Stena etc. - nothing concrete about the unlocking of the funding impasse that would justify Interestking’s statement: “We have finance...trust me we have”.

So it is over to Interestking to back that statement up. I can’t see anything online that suggests that the impasse has now been broken (by the way, the local rampers will want to avoid any Google search that includes the terms “Bizzell Capital Partners” and “Australian Tax Office”).

Interestking

“We have finance – and don’t come back @ me with yeah but no but – trust me we have – your choice! You don’t initiate a drillship without it!”

The company’s latest official position on finance remains:

“As at 31 December 2019 and the execution date of these financial statements [1 June 2020] the Group had no ability to draw down on the above convertible loan facilities and there can be no certainty that the facilities will be or remain available for drawdown in the future.”

How can anything happen on the operational front until these funding arrangements are either unlocked or replaced? What do you know that the market doesn’t? Because the market knows about the IceMAX sailing to Las Palmas and it isn’t reading any more into that than it should. Hopefully you aren’t either.

So please tell us what you know about finance that we don’t.

Starchild

“I personally prefer Stena gets 10% of Percy-1, however there is one major advantage to the overall picture if they select the equity option: Stena, like all other shareholders will NOT wish for further dilution. Could this be an incentive for Stena to ‘lend’ BPC the $15m balance secured on CERP assets, so as to avoid CLNs? In my figures above, $5m is included to enhance CERP assets, as such this security will be even more solid.”

When you are talking about a picks and shovels company like Stena, a farm in certainly seems unlikely - picks and shovels companies tend to stick to the picks and shovels business, certainly when it is exploration rather than something lower risk like appraisal or development that is on the table.

I would though agree with you that a Stena subscription is not so unlikely - but only because Stena could arguably make that option work for them by offloading enough of their subscription shares into the pre-drill excitement of the local rampers and rainbow chasing newbies before the IceMAX was on site. That would be a relatively low risk approach from their point of view. But your loan idea just sounds like wishful thinking. Companies like Stena are not interested in that kind of risk. They succeed by sticking to their knitting.

Robbla

Having the farm in option does not really prove that Stena are interested in more than “digging”: having it in the contract costs them nothing after all and they would feel pretty stupid if they refused to have it in the contract and oil then hit $100 before the option would have expired, unlikely though $100 oil is anytime soon.

bynari

Just to be clear though, when you say:

“On arrival in Las Palmas will undertake a reactivation & rig acceptance process before sailing to the Perseverance 1 well...”

that is only what you hope will be the case. You don’t seem to be able to provide a link that independently confirms this. Presumably you are also hoping that the existing funding for P1 will be unlocked by a Stena farm in or subscription or by the funders just deciding to waive the conditions that BPC has breached or is unable to fulfil, rather than by e.g. equity having to take one for the team in a placing (which you must admit seems more likely).

A Stena farm in certainly seems unlikely - picks and shovels companies tend to stick to the picks and shovels business, certainly when it is exploration rather than something lower risk like appraisal or development that is on the table. A Stena subscription is not so unlikely though - it still seems to me that Stena could offload enough of their subscription shares to the local rampers and rainbow chasing newbies before the IceMAX was on site to make that option work for them. But would a placing be a problem anyway? If a placing is what the existing funders need to move forward on this, surely it will be quickly forgotten about as the pre-drill excitement kicks in pretty much immediately?

bynari

“On arrival in Las Palmas will undertake a reactivation & rig acceptance process before sailing to the Perseverance 1 well...”.

Do you have a link which confirms the above? The second link you provided seems to be to an old article.

jimtheknow

Not sure the subscription option is the least probable. I think you are underestimating the pre-drill PI excitement that such an RNS would unlock - just read this BB. I think Stena would have enough time to sell enough shares at enough of a profit to have a free carry on the remainder. That would be job done from their point of view.

It occurs to me that if Stena took the subscription option they would have a decent chance of offloading their shares at a profit to retail while the IceMAX was still in the mid-Atlantic...

dubed

Yes, quite a spike for what was really just pure speculation. The force is strong with the rampers here - a sniff of a genuine positive and it will fly, whether it should or not. The question is whether equity will first have to take one for the team to unlock the funding - arguably it would be worth it as that hit would quickly be forgotten about in all the pre-drill excitement.