Member Info for rossannan

brynjon

When I said early stage I meant the exploration stage, not the low volume stage. I can see how exploration success would attract institutions but I’m not sure that high volumes would (on their own).

brynjon

Not sure why institutions would be particularly interested at this stage - surely it’s down to us little old PIs, whether we’re trying to trade on pre-drill excitement or hold through to the drill result.

Robbla

That’s certainly how it looks to me.

brynjon

I think if volume even started hitting 1%+ on a daily basis this one would be game on. I would call that exciting anyway. Obviously big news and/or moves would generate more volume than that, but 1% plus per day in the absence of news would be a new phase for BPC (unless I am completely misreading recent charts).

may be the key to this - $1.75M from them could prime the pump sufficiently for the other funders to commit. News on that front would be a small but significant positive.

True dat.

CoMan

So presumably it is unrealistic (to say the least) to talk about 2BN barrels of P90 being booked on the back of Perseverance-1 and Perseverance-2 alone?

Ibiza28

CoMan is talking about recoverable oil rather than oil in place.

mysteryguy

Could well happen - depends on the next RNS or if there is too much of a wait before the next RNS. I was happy enough to buy where it is now, but it’s a risk you take.

CoMan

On the one where the company obtained sufficient information from wireline data on the exploration wells to book P90 reserves, how many barrels were booked as P90 and what, roughly, were the stable flow rates on those wells?

Starchild

It is neither patronising nor insulting to call out what is so obviously rampy nonsense. Ibiza28’s back of the fag packet theory, which you seemed so keen to get behind, does the genuine multibagger potential of the BPC gamble a real disservice. A BB on which that kind of thing is left unchallenged is neither useful nor informative.

Ibiza28’s theory was 2BN P90 barrels by late 2021, generating a 100/125 bagger by drilling only P1 and P2. You eventually backed away from the late 2021 part of this theory but have been unable to answer how BPC could get from drilling only these 2 wells to 2BN P90 barrels at some later point in time. The insights offered by CoMan make it pretty clear that appraisal wells are the answer to that, and that is where the 100/125 bagger theory comes tumbling down because nothing reduces the number of potential bags like additional CAPEX and the associated funding events (share issuance, farm-ins, whatever). But the theory was already fundamentally flawed anyway because it completely ignored the bag-reducing potential of the existing CLN funding and the major early stage funding event that the drilling of P2 would represent.

I have no problem with folk talking about 25p or 40p best case scenarios that genuinely could happen but talk of £2 or £2.50 is, as I hope I have made clear, just nonsense on stilts.

Go away.

ab76

A lot of that has been down to new wells and has involved significant CAPEX but, to be fair, TRIN’s interventions short of drilling have been very effective too. I’m looking forward to the interims, the Budget and the Q3 update - before folk conclude that there is no upside here they should consider how close (compared to many other oilers) TRIN remains to its Covid lows.

Jimtheknow

Fair comment, although some folk have talked about 40p and that doesn’t seem totally unreasonable in the event that a genuine supergiant is discovered (at least while euphoria reigns and before all the sums are done). I’m just in this for a trade on pre-drill excitement though, so if other folk want to believe that drill success is going to be some kind of 100+ bagger, like a micro cap pharma discovering a simple cure for Covid, that can only add to the pre-drill excitement. Right now I’d be quite euphoric just to see them sort their funding out!

Ibiza28

You need to be looking at the terms of the existing CLN based finance too and considering the realities of funding P2 (even assuming success with P1).

Starchild

Okay, you are now moving away from Ibiza28’s 2BN P90 barrels by late 2021. I am not surprised. But the question remains - how do you get from drilling only these 2 wells to 2BN P90 barrels at some later point in time? If you can’t answer that, Ibiza28’s 100/125 bagger back of the fag packet theory falls at that hurdle (although it has, of course, already fallen at the shares in issue hurdle).

Ibiza28’s kind of thinking does the genuine multibagger potential of the BPC gamble a real disservice.

Starchild

But shares in issue matters a great deal because the point of this exercise is, in fact, shareholder returns. How many shares have to be issued to get P1 drilled? Then how many shares have to be issued to get P2 drilled? And how do you get from drilling only these 2 wells to PROVING (i.e. P90) 2BN bbls of reserves at some point in 2021?

Starchild

And shares in issue?

Starchild

And are you assuming that the reserves are all oil?

Starchild

Just to be clear, are you asking that question on the basis of BPC having this 2bboe of PROVEN reserves at some point next year and roughly how many BPC shares are you assuming would be in issue at the point that the takeover was completed?

Starchild

No, but you’re talking about the takeout SP at some point next year. How does BPC get from here to 2bboe PROVEN reserves next year?