Member Info for rossannan

IreneKrapp

“you were miles out, I was much closer”

Close but no cigar. I was the winner.

CW25

You could have a point there. I note from the Clinical Trials Register:

https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2020-001023-14/GB

that anyone “ventilated or in intensive care” is excluded, although this may be more of a safety issue and presumably someone on a ventilator cannot easily be dosed with something designed to be delivered via a nebuliser and mouthpiece.

that

These are the musings of an absolute layman, but is it possible that SNG started off down the wrong route with their SNG001 hospital trials? Their recent RNS stated

“Synairgen plc (LSE: SNG), the respiratory drug discovery and development company, announces that it has received approvals to extend the SG016 trial to patients with SARS-CoV-2 in the home environment. The objective is to initiate dosing with SNG001 (or placebo) earlier in the infection cycle, and before severe lower respiratory tract symptoms have developed. In due course, details of the design, implementation and timing of this novel study will be disclosed more fully.”

Is the above new focus on the earlier part of the infection cycle influenced by the thinking that seems to be emerging in an article like this one

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1568997220301294

which to this absolute layman suggests that they maybe should have been focusing on the earlier part of the infection cycle from the get go?

Can anyone with expertise in this area offer any insights?

Bamps21

If the “Well is producing at high rate approx. 500 bpd @ 90 to 95% water cut from interval 2”, does that not mean that it is in fact producing 25-50 bopd?

I would suggest that the use of “bpd” rather than “bopd” is significant. If in doubt you might want to check with the company how to interpret all this.

zeusfurla

Are we on here to discuss TXP or just to promote it? I wouldn’t be invested if I had a fundamental problem with TXP - as I said I have a lot of time for Paul Baay. I am though always interested in getting the best handle I can on the financials, particularly funding.

Bamps21

How is pointing out the difference between discovered oil and a well with a 45% geological (geological!) CoS twisting the discussion back to a negative? Is it not simply bringing the discussion back to reality? I would argue that the discussion on here is becoming increasingly divorced from reality, not helped by Leo Koot’s highly suspect decision to ditch the quarterly updates that previously kept shareholders more up to date with CERP’s production and, crucially, its cash position.

Scarface72

As long as the local rampers keep posting such right old nonsense, the sceptics will continue to weigh in. CERP is fascinating for anyone interested in AIM O&G, particularly AIM O&G in Trinidad.

Or even geological!

Bamps21

Not at all. UKOG (conceivably a dodgier proposition than CERP!) made that statement on the back of well tests. You are not comparing like with like. CERP still await the result of their gamble on that 45% geographical (geographical!) CoS.

Bamps21

“The Lower Cruse at Saffron has 11.5m barrels of recoverable oil”

Results in already? I didn’t even realise that Saffron had spudded.

Goodbody

What do you think TXP’s current cash balance is?

LEXION

Funding is unavoidable and the old adage of equity for exploration and debt for development is a useful guide to how it usually plays out. There is nothing wrong about any of this but folk often fail to appreciate that much of what AIM O&G CEOs have to say about funding is merely aspirational and that financial realities will often dictate something else.

Alchemyex

Yes, my apologies for assuming that everyone caught the October webinar. I might not have tuned in myself if I had not been keen to hear what Paul Baay had to say about the budget (which was not much as it turned out other than to downplay it rather unconvincingly, IMO). You are probably right about a spike, the up being generated by dawning realisation of the magnitude of Ortoire and the down being generated by the subsequent realisation of the magnitude of the associated CAPEX!

I would query the accuracy of this statement by Ben Turney:

“At the end of last quarter Touchstone had around $7 million in cash”

The market has not been given the end Q3 cash balance. I doubt very much that it would come out this way. I suspect that Ben Turney is referring to the end Q2 cash balance of $7,250,000.

Sorry, October webinar, not September.

Alchemyex

As I said, it tells us nothing that most of us on here don’t know already from the September webinar (e.g. the VAT repayment). It is just some of that information repackaged. Perhaps though it will, as you suggest, bring TXP to the attention of a slightly wider audience.

Sundayroast

I deliberately used the word “funding event” rather than “placing”. It is always useful to compare and contrast. You cannot evaluate a company like TXP in isolation from peers such as CERP. That valuethemarkets article was well spotted. It is a bit of a puff piece - it tells us nothing that we don’t know already - but it explains the volume this morning.

Goodbody / Sundayroast

It is wrong to talk about these wells being self financed / self funded. You are forgetting about the raise in February this year, while a realistic reading of the current financials suggests that there will be another funding event in the near future. As this will likely be on the back of success at Coho-1 and Cas-1, it is though nothing to worry about. In contrast you have CERP, seemingly now running on fumes, awaiting the result of its 45% geological (geological!) CoS Saffron well (once it finally spuds). CERP’s forthcoming funding event is one to worry abound - failure at Saffron would likely make it distinctly unfriendly to shareholders. We are lucky that Paul Baay is not the kind of CEO who exposes shareholders to that level of risk..

LTID

Robo-analysts are ten a penny out there.

neon

A serious question. If you think that I am telling lies about CERP’s bank balance being next to nothing after drilling costs, what do you think that bank balance in fact is?

I have set out my reasoning very clearly. At the end of 2018 CERP had $2.60M in the bank. At the end of Q1 2019 it had $2.06M in the bank. At the end of Q2 2019 it had approximately $1.30M (£1.053M to be exact) in the bank. Here, almost one-third of the way through Q4, even assuming that Q3 saw significantly less cash burn than Q2, CERP is unlikely to have much more than $800,000 in the bank, which is what we have been told that Saffron will cost.

Let’s have your figure and your reasoning.