Member Info for rossannan

I really hope that it is P1 related and not about ex-CERP assets.

Bespoke

There had better be. The timing of the tweet (just after the market closed) suggests that this interview will be on the back of an RNS. If it isn’t, folk will not be happy.

ZagEgypt

Yes, but the point is not whether it was a bad decision then but what it is worth to BPC now and whether that is being exaggerated on here.

Petrodollar

“only responsible adults should be investing & DYOR!”

“we all have different relationships to risk & our investment approach reflects that”

Fair comment.

A real problem on here though is this school of thought, which is relatively new:

“BPC 4p-5p per share (£200m market cap) even if Percy-1 is a duster? Here’s potentially how and why”

The gist is that in the event of a duster, the ex-CERP assets may, after initial turbulence, ensure nothing worse than 4p-5p!

This is so dangerous. For a start, it ignores how capital hungry the ex-CERP assets are - it is worth looking at how much capital they have consumed to date (and, by the way, it was interesting that when I recently sent 3 questions to BPC about the ex-CERP assets, the one question that they didn’t answer was whether the drilling outfit was still bound, post the merger, to farm in to S2). This school of thought also seems to involve swallowing pretty much whole the BPC BoD’s highly aspirational take on the ex-CERP assets - a take which, on any kind of objective examination, is essentially marketing.

For you BPC is a smallish gamble within an otherwise balanced portfolio, but I suspect that many on here are more significantly exposed. The downside matters.

ZagEgypt

I think the issue is not so much whether it was a negative as whether it now provides a substantial margin of safety and means that BPC is no longer the binary proposition it once was.

I would imagine that most folk are holding out for sub-20p. I know I am. Not a risk free strategy, we could be overtaken by events, but sometimes you just have to pick a number.

But no guarantees in the short term - I think it is important to stress that.

GG

Totally see where you are coming from. Still happy with my pre-drill excitement trade because the pre-drill excitement is likely to happen even if folk should arguably be more cautious. If there is a setback at this stage, the percentage fall is going to be nothing like what it would be on a duster/uncommercial drill result.

(I realise that some have signed up to the

“BPC 4p-5p per share (£200m market cap) even if Percy-1 is a duster? Here’s potentially how and why”

school of thought - I think that is dangerous but that is their call.)

Phoebus

Post recommended.

Private_Investor

Good post. It is amazing how over time people’s definitions of the short, medium and long term have changed. We have so much less patience these days. I can wait a couple of months for my reward here though - no problem. But that will do it for me. I’m not going to get greedy and hold out for the drill result - what if it turns out to be a “wafer-thin mint”?!

TRP-BPC

You’ll be lucky:

https://www.argos.co.uk/product/6061995?clickSR=slp:term:shears:6:14:1

LLL

Fair play, you got in first.

Lancygeo

That’s a bit out of date now. Back in the CERP days, the local rampers used to talk about that $4.2M as if they could take it to the bank. It’s not going to happen now - I wonder if PRD will even repeat their $1.75M offer. For good or for ill, your future now lies with P1, not the ex-CERP assets.

GG

I just have the free subscription.

moniman

On a superficial level though, that story may be adversely affecting ORPH (although I suspect most folk have written off the antibody testing by now - I guess it was one of things you hear a lot about initially that then goes quiet and is eventually quietly buried).

Mumbo_Jumbo

But why should we imagine that the SPA is just around the corner?

Dibs61

The question of where AAZ’s future production is coming from is important, so this is certainly good news in theory. In practice there is probably a long way to go before capital can safely be committed to this asset.

dpend

It is a torturously slow sideshow - if you look back at older PRD RNSs you will, bearing in mind that this is Q4 2020, see the yawning gap between what was originally envisaged for this project and what has actually transpired. In fact it may be more accurate to describe this project as a torturously slow sideshow sideshow within a torturously slow sideshow. But none of this is going to stop folk on here trying to put lipstick on the ex-CERP assets. The important thing is for the BPC BoD to remain properly focused on P1 (given that P1 is the money shot, whether you are trading the pre-drill excitement or up for the high risk/high reward gamble of the drill result).

Positive vaccine news may lead folk to take a second look at stalled/delayed propositions like BLVN and RKH. In the meantime we just have to be patient.

countdemonet

Fortunately the IceMAX is not a sailing ship so the doldrums are not a problem! It’s good that the share price has established a base significantly above the placing price - I’m sure that it will make significant further progress next month.