Member Info for rossannan

ZagEgypt

1. See my answer to Robbla
2. Nicola says no.

Robbla

I’m posting the link because it came up in my feed earlier, while I was watching the video. As before, I’m not offering any comment on it, I’m simply posting it because it is a relevant link. Make of it what you will.

http://www.tribune242.com/news/2020/oct/29/oil-opponents-stoke-fears-122k-jobs/

It is a quote like that which makes the pre-drill excitement trade so compelling. Absolute catnip for rampers. Management can’t help themselves and PIs won’t be able to help themselves. It is a pretty much perfect setup.

Robbla

A cynic would ask if they still had that choice i.e. whether the drilling outfit was still obliged to farm in after the change of control.

Okay, I now see why they didn’t answer my question whether the S1 drilling outfit was still bound, post the merger and the change of control that it brought, to farm in to S2. Sounds like no farm in and BPC footing the bill...

“Virtually a dead cert”

Words fail me.

Cheers dpend.

LTID

2 wells? Unlikely.

Judge-mental

That’s the point though - you do not have a one in three chance of a “multi multi multi bag”, you have a one in three chance of a positive outcome. Your chance of a “multi multi multi bag” is smaller.

bigmj

Thanks for getting back to me.

“don't forget that doesn't mean 65% chance of a duster, it means 65% chance of not finding what they hope and expect”

No, it means a 65% chance of a duster or an oil find that is not commercial. If you look at the spectrum of possible outcomes you have points like “duster” at one end, “only just uncommercial”, “only just commercial”, “0.77 bnbbl” and eventually “1.44 bnbbl” right at the other end. BPC clearly hope and expect to find 0.77 bnbbl - 1.44 bnbbl, but the chances of that outcome are clearly less than 35%. It is all about the definition of “success” in the CoS. The CoS is not the chance of the best case outcome, it is the chance of a commercial discovery, which includes one that is only just commercial.

bigmj

When I recently sent 3 questions to BPC about the ex-CERP assets, the one question that they didn’t answer was whether the S1 drilling outfit was still bound, post the merger and the change of control that it brought, to farm in to S2. Could you persuade BPC to update us on that point? It is quite important, given the store that some folk on here seem to set by the ex-CERP assets.

Petrodollar

I can see from your post that Starchild’s headers are beginning to evolve.

Previously: “BPC 4p-5p per share (£200m market cap) even if Percy-1 is a duster?...”

Now: “BPC 4p-5p per share end 2021 if Percy-1 is a duster?...”

No, it’s not the dropping of “(£200m market cap)” but the addition of “end 2021”. This header remains in the “dangerous” zone - it wrongly suggests that the ex-CERP assets significantly de-risk what is still, essentially, a binary proposition - but it is progress.

*about the ex-CERP assets

LTID

That, of course, was pre-merger - it was interesting that when I recently sent 3 questions to BPC about, the one question that they didn’t answer was whether the drilling outfit was still bound, post the merger, to farm in to S2. As I said to bigmj, BPC might want to clarify that.

The dangers of leverage aside, why wouldn’t you want to have a CFD on BPC if spuds were imminent? Even if you were just trading the excitement around them rather than actually gambling on the outcomes?

bigmj

Hopefully though you got a clear sense that P1 is their priority?

I wouldn’t like to think that they are spending any time or money that they don’t absolutely have to on the ex-CERP assets right now.

And talking of spending money on the ex-CERP assets, it was interesting that when I recently sent 3 questions to BPC about them, the one question that they didn’t answer was whether the drilling outfit was still bound, post the merger, to farm in to S2.

BPC might want to update us on that.

Lancygeo

CO2 is like waterflood - believe it if you see it but don’t buy into the hype. We never did see waterflood, as it turned out. I wouldn’t hold too much hope out for CO2.

Petrodollar

Agreed - it was interesting how earlier in the year TW’s particular take on the pandemic seemed to colour his views on certain shares and possibly led to his readers missing out some opportunities.

Petrodollar

Agreed, I wasn’t doubting that he has a following, just wondering why folk bother with him. He’s a bit like your classic BB ramper, swallowing the BoD’s line pretty much whole then simply regurgitating it and passing that off as critical analysis.

Petrodollar

Not sure why he has his own following, he is little more than a mouthpiece for BoDs (and he he has been the mouthpiece for some pretty awful BoDs).