Member Info for Romeike

Cool story bro

I've not been able to find anything to confirm progress, but the suggestion from the Deputy minister for Energy was that in the near term Ghana would reduce by a significant percentage its imports of gas from Nigeria. The Karpower generator should also be helping matters and it was evident that they were looking to take the Jubilee gas and accept paying ENI while trying to renegotiate the ENI contract to take and pay instead of take or pay. Assuming these things happen and gas re-injection drops dramatically, there will still be some overhang while the gas:oil ratio of the reservoir comes back to a normal range.

Further, I am glad to have learnt that the reserves downgrade on Enyenra was nothing to do with damage from gas re-injection as I feared, but rather a reflection of the irregular geology of the reservoir and in any case is offset by increased reserves identified in Jubilee and Intombe.

Goldman says oil rally likely shortlived.

Yeah... because Iran developing nuclear weapons within a year or so is not a problem.

Yeah

ECO is trading correctly on the increased probability this year of a commercial find in cretaceous Orinduik. Tullow meanwhile is being aggressively manhandled in a tight rage.

It will get there MRD, just give it time. There's nothing wrong that cannot be sorted and positive sentiment will see this recover smartly.

I am hopeful the new CEO may take a leaf out of Biogen's book and announce some share buy backs.

Oil will be in a whole different place by then.

Radio silence is an unavoidable consequence of replacing the CEO - the company will deliberately minimize communication and particularly avoid statements on strategy for the time being as strategic decisions will be up to the incoming CEO. I am expect the CEO will announce a program of cost cuts including job losses at the head office.

Part of a bid strategy - ignoring the fact this would be highly illegal

Trump saying if US troops are asked to leave Iraq he will place heavy sanctions on the country. So much for US troops being there at the request of Iraq in an "advisory" capacity. Sounds more like blackmail to me. Seems likely some sort of proxy push on the green zone might be organized to inflame more tension in the country.

The article deliberately misrepresents what Dorothy Thompson told analysts. Where companies make a buyout their key strategy they are very direct in saying so. Thompson did not do this, she merely gave a stock answer to an analysts question.

I understand why some who bought in recently would want a takeover at any price but I raised this exact issue with Tullow and was told they are not actively looking to sell the company and any divestment of assets will be a decision for the incoming CEO.

There is no stated strategy of seeking a buyer. Have you actually spoken to anyone at Tullow? Their only strategy at this point is to appoint a new CEO and to make damn sure they never need to announce a production downgrade again in the forseeable future. That is their repeated message and it will be reiterated again in 15th I am sure. This is all about resetting the business, winning back trust and getting on the right track. Tullow was until this year very well regarded and still has many excellent people working there.

I will feel much happier once it is in the 100p region as takeover prospect then becomes an opportunity rather than a threat.

You can't really compare them, Exxon is just moving along known geology using a well developed model. Carapa-1 as a 15%COS wildcat well, the first exploration on the block. They will doubtless share information with ECO to figure out a high probability drill location in cretaceous Orinduik. I'm expecting they will fund two wells in Guyana for 2020.

There is a reasonable chance Tullow and ECO will hit a large find on their block this year.

Not sure the 15 Jan update will be positive, more likely a repeat of their key message that they are focussed on meeting the stated guidance. February however should be better and I hope they will also amnounce a new CEO that month.

It's hard to see now but Tullow are taking the right steps. It was clear by early this year that the CEO was making bad decisions, eg dividends and replacing him was the right move. Positive news flow on recruiting a respected person as CEO, resolving gas issues allowing gas:oil ratio improvements over time, enabling higher production, Uganda resolution and farm down, January drilling, progress in Kenya.A lot of possible positives. If they stabilise Ghana production you can see them working on Intombe to improve production. Jubilee and Ten are mid life assets, still plenty more oil to extract. all at low cost.

Aside from Ophir being more gas than oil, it had much more fundamental issues that a slight production downgrade and a clumsy, ineffective CEO. And it was far smaller.

That's the joke though, ECO wasn't even involved. They just put out a positive, optimistic statement about read through from drill results in Kanuku to their block Orinduik. Why Tullow was not more upbeat I don't know but probably they are not wanting to make any statement seen to commit them to drilling cretaceous Orinduik even though that is the obvious next step. Such strategic decisions will be left to the incoming CEO.

This is not Ophir. Not even remotely the same situation at all.