Member Info for Romeike

It's worth about 140p as things stand which is where it should return to once things stabilize. It might take as much as 24 months to get there though because iis will be relying on trading updates to demonstrate a stable situation production re: Ghana production. If Dorothy has instructed the engineers to forecast figures they can almost guarantee to reach as then there ought to be plenty of scope for these targets to be exceeded with some smart opex. They've operated these fields for nine years so you'd think they know what they are doing and a bit of catch up on the maintenance should help repair the damage done by head-in-the-sand McDade.

Oil is also going up as we speak

One of the few positives is that Tullow does at least seem to following oil price more closely, including upside movements. Apparently outages in Libya and Iraq don't matter much. Seems like hubris.

Will hit 48p if current downtrend continues.

Ghana to have less gas from Nigeria

But will someone with a brain cell say "hang on a sec, why don't we get all that free gas from Jubilee piped over to the station up the coast in Tema? I mean the pipeline from Nigeria actually goes PAST the jubilee field for God's sake.

Unfortunately the SP is stuck in a corrosive down trend and will continue to be so until a positive narrative is established by Tullow. Some positive news regarding turning around production improvements at Jubilee and TEN where statements from Tullow directly contradict statements from their partners (Kosmos) and the government officials is badly needed but Tullow seems more focused on accepting the production will be as forecast and "resetting the business" to compensate for this. It almost seems like they think they have no ability or leverage to resolve the gas offtake issue.

However, if Tullow can exceed average 80bopd for at the 2020 HY they can expect a sharp upward rerate to a more sensible price, but first year figures will include downtime for improvements made in Q1 so this will be a challenge. I was also left incredulous to read that the Tema gas powered electricity generator in West Ghana may sit idle due to difficulty importing sufficient gas from Nigeria via a pipeline undergoing maintenance. Exactly why Tema does not have gas feed-in from Jubilee I have absolutely no idea. Ghana are paying through the nose for gas while gas at Jubilee is being re-injected into the reservoir worsening production rates for every day that goes by.

Certainly it seems to make more sense to exit Uganda and focus on Kenya which is much more deliverable and doesn't require a $3.5 bn pipeline to be built. Still a huge shame as Tullow would have benefited enormously from their share of production once first oil was eventually reached.

The more I read about it the more I think it would be better for Tullow to exit Uganda. I just don't see the huge, heated pipeline to Mombasa ever happening in a reasonable amount of time. That might be fine for Total but Tullow doesn't have that luxury any more unless their costs are capped at 700m. I can think of better uses for that cash.

It is all about Ghana production. Tullow have gone out of their way to be very pessimistic about future production, well beyond reporting requirements, and continue to be guarded about the facts. Two important improvements are taking place in Q1 but I have not been able to get an answer to the simple question as whether production gains from that work is already assumed in the forecasts or not. Tullow's share price can recover to pre-crash levels but it is going to take at least a year, probably two, depending on how quickly oil prices recover.

Re CFO ~ I agree, I was suprised they took on with an agency as I thought they'd go internal promotion to keep costs down.

What is the chance they secure Al Walker as CEO, given his prior connection to Tullow? I am not sure they can afford him to be honest, but you never know.

I'd prefer that Tullow gets involved in the Springfield find. They have staff and resources already on the ground in Ghana and should have the relationships in place to get a decent deal. The largest developed field would potentially be double the size of Jubilee.

The ideal for Tullow is for Brent to stay in a sustainable 65-75 range, that allows it comfortable free cash flow while not providing succor to US frackers.

Could take months for new CEO announcement, though from the latest update they did make it sound more near termthan I expected. Dorothy Thompson has taken a massive risk by getting rid of McDade with no proper succession plan. It has left the share price vulnerable to the worst elements of the market.

OPEC has always been slow to open. up the taps in the past. The next periodof high oil prices are still likely to be subdued compared to prior cycles but still at prices that will greatly benefit producers and spur investment that has been so lacking.

Tullow just needs to stay independent until a price boom. The oil pruce had been in an extended slump thanks to Wall Street funded over supply from the US. The available data suggests that could change markedly over next 1-3 years, possibly beginning as soon as Q2 this year.

The muck raking around the final delivery going into 2020 makes no sense. JPM moan that TLW not changing FCF guidance of 'at least 150 mil', but surely 'at least' already covers it. They are really just looking to create issues with this. Most of the other items, while understandable, are obviously commercially sensitive and TLW would be stupid to comment more than necessary.

##https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Number-Of-DUC-Wells-Plunges-In-Latest-Sign-Of-Shale-Distress.html

This will be well over 100p in two or three years.

Will the Fkin downtrend ever end? I mean what the hell, surely there's no more to squeeze out of this.

Typical FT hatchet job. We'll still be using tons of oil in 40 -50 years.