Member Info for romaron

An amusing look at the Far Wrong party now in power.

https://substack.com/home/post/p-146501125

sample: "This is typical of the far-wrong, spreading disinformation about how cheap renewables are while demanding more subsidies. If wind power is so cheap, why do we have to subsidise it?

That's an interesting point. With very low turnover the rules (as I understand them) mean that ML cannot just go and buy (say 5mio) but have to buy literally a percentage of what is available and on the stall. With the abysmal volumes in EnQuest this is extremely difficult. Conversely if a deal or some action triggered massive volumes the opposite would be true. In a volatile and active market ML could soon hoover up shares.

Is that accurate VoR?

“No matter red or blue, the target is 50GW by 2030,” Zachlod said. “AR6 is pretty much the last auction that you can be sure will deliver projects for 2030.

“So, this year, and potentially some accelerated projects in AR7, if there’s another auction next year, these are very much the last chance saloon.”

He hailed Labour for setting aggressive offshore wind targets – quadrupling the current 15GW to 60GW by 2030. However, Zachlod called for additional measures to fund these ambitions.

“We need to see an increase in the budget to try and get as many projects as possible through this year,” Zachlod said.

His comments echo a recent call from RWE to the new Labour Government to raise the budget for offshore wind projects.

Labour has previously said it is considering whether to increase the budget for AR6 after it assesses the applications it has received.

------------------

From Energy Voice today. Zachlod is MD of aEnBW Generation UK. The last sentence interests me. I read it as Labour KNOW the results of AR6. The lobbying for handouts doeasn't stop from renewables.

*Investment = Subsidy Not always. Sometimes a loss leader is a loss. Remember the Labour Warm Front scheme launched in 2000? 10 + years of subsidies and when they were pulled by the Tories the company making most out of them fell apart like a cheap suit - Eaga was bought out from looming bankruptcy by Carillon. Didn't that go well. And now they want to do it again.

Correction: He said "Scotland WOULD have the cheapest electricity in Europe."

https://www.energylivenews.com/2024/07/15/octopus-boss-scotland-could-have-europes-cheapest-power/

In opposition you're pretty much Teflon-coated and after 14 years begin to believe your own rhetoric. The play book is simple: pick holes in the party in power, double-down on their mistakes, tell the voters you can solve the problems without telling them how, promise a manifesto with the explanation that won't have detail until they are elected. You get sloppy in this respect because of repetition aided by a decaying inept Tory party.

You can only use the damage caused by the previous incumbent ONCE. The honeymoon is brief. One bit of luck is their [Labour's} majority and a (so far) nebulous opposition.

So far Ed has been given the less controversial toys to play with - solar panels and GB Energy. The serious toys are firmly locked away and Rachel has the key. His [Ed's] track record doesn't instil confidence and his experience in business (real world) doesn't exist.

Events keep interrupting and don't follow the script (Trump and Lammy will be interesting - 'neo-Nazi-sympathising sociopath' and a 'dangerous clown') and sniping is a lot easier than ducking or evading the ambush.

King's speech first and O&G may get a mention. I still think AR6 will cause embarrassment and the government will be updated ahead of the market and voters. Plenty for us to look forward to. I think we'll tread water until the Autumn and the budget. I'm still a strong supporter of AB and hope he retains control. We should have gone bust with the huge debt we once had. His stewardship and team choices saved us.

Ever since the windfall tax we've lacked political friends and support. The source of Labour labelling everything with the word "crisis" was never rebuffed or challenged by the Tories because they believed it would cost them votes. This allowed Ed to rise up the ranks and encourage others to join in. All this is on record.

It is blatant manipulation and misrepresentation of the actual facts. I have Dale Vince saying 11 months ago that wind needs no public subsidy now and onshore wind and solar need NO public support - no money at all - the cheapest forms of energy we can build and that bacon will kill you before a Kim Jong Un missile. Then there is of course my obsession with 9X cheaper. Here's a sample with the time on video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNt9aHSbX8Q 11:35

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAEBbX6xn50&t=2646s 27:05

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtU43svMcGk 43:00

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001t4t5/question-time-2023-07122023 49:50

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDZID_lyrxc 20:30

My favorite? It was a toss up between Annelise Dodds "I'm from Aberdeenshire" implying she knows what she's talking about but the winner is Keir saying to the CBI - "you can never say it enough - 9X cheaper than imported fossil fuels". Well, he's NOT saying it now!

"Scotland's got the cheapest electricity in Europe" - Greg Jackson CEO Octopus Energy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00214zx/sunday-with-laura-kuenssberg-trump-assassination-attempt

Listen at 34:55

There are many decisions to be made.

New hospital or new prison?

Blackouts or fossil fuels?

Pretend world or real world?

Maybe angel's tears and unicorn droppings will save the day?

Mansardman - re your 11:27 post. It is far to important to the country and us EnQuest investors to trivialise and joke about such an important subject. I have a tape from the State for Energy and Net Zero of the UK leaked to me of them preparing for a renewable news announcement https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mome8hCLcI

Ed is throwing his weight about. Pushing through projects against local objections and an immediate halt to new licenses to extract oil and gas in the NS. Nice picture of him advertising Octopus Energy in the Telegraph today.

In November 2022 he said on BBC TV that 10 years ago he would have said that going green was the "ethical choice not the economic choice". That has changed and now "solar and wind power are 9X cheaper than fossil fuels".

Seems to me we've gone back 10 years and it is purely an ideological/ethical decision.

*https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNt9aHSbX8Q from 11:30

Https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/07/14/a-big-wreck-is-about-to-happen-at-the-intersection-of-artificial-intelligence-boulevard-and-net-zero-avenue/

Miliband hasn't a clue. Just wait until the powers behind AI start moving to where abundant energy is. Possibly Norway?

Rachel Reeves is gonna be mightily p*ssed off with this hair-shirted single issue fanatic. Any (socialist) fool can spend a large sum of money. Oil companies make a return on their investment. There’s a difference. Spending isn’t growth.

*The increasingly out of touch and biased BBC had Greg Jackson , CEO of Octopus Energy on Sunday with Kuenssberg (impartiality?) this morning who whinged about having to wait until 2037 for a grid connection to one of their wind farms that's ready to go. Nothing another subsidy can't cure I assume.

Good question and you're asking the wrong person. Stevo or L7 would have a better idea. I'm using Occam's razor to base my thinking. I doubt there's a queue to buy them and AB could make it difficult for another buyer of the Kraken share. There is also quite a high probability that it feeds into another ongoing deal but you won't hear anything from EnQuest Towers. As my old gran used to say - "they're tighter than a bull's *rse in August".

Our position is actually improving media wise I'd say. The Tories were so inept and trying to be populist that they didn't help us at all. Labour had the same mindset but had handed NZ to Red Ed and Dale Vince because that is what they thought the public wanted. Reality is setting in and the public don't want heat pumps or EV's that they can't afford - they do want cheaper bills and Ed has made some outrageous promises and they are on record. Being in power is totally different to being in opposition. Yesterday's BBC QT was actually quite enjoyable. Labour have got the ball now and it really is a "be careful what you wish for" situation. We have a lot of ammunition if you stop to think about it and I have a torpedo that I think may hit home. I've collected quite a lot of quotes from Dale Vince and the 9X cheaper shibboleth. They would like to forget them. How about getting them into a youtube or TikTok video and handing it to Farage? I say Farage because he is the most media savvy politician out there. He can get the message to the general public.

It's quite simple really. Where are the cheaper electric bills?

Https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-papers/scandalous-climate-change-committee

Click to download

Lie after lie from the hypocrites of the CCC. Even a Banana Republic or Trump would hesitate to repeat their distortion and misstating of the facts. As for conflict of interest - it's off the scale.

Well that's how I read it: https://www.energylivenews.com/2024/07/08/energy-sector-urges-uk-government-to-increase-cfd-funding/

After what is it, after 20 years the industry still needs ever larger subsidies? Maybe the technology and economics are flawed?

Hi M- this is about AR7 and we are still in the dark on AR6. It benefits us if it goes ahead for future development (if allowed) as electric power will be required for the tick box on future developments. I asked the engineer guy about offshore floating and he said an FPSO would need an offshore floating of about 2 Spurs stadiums in size. I've no idea of the costs involved but unless they come will full subsidies B&B are pipe dreams I imagine.

Dumbly 12:15 - I think it is bolted on that we take on the Waldorf Kraken asset. The 5 year is irrelevant to us as we have to spend the tax losses we already have and that will compensate. The deal is a rinse and repeat of First Oil in 2016 imo and we even have Steve Bowyer who (painfully) understands the whole process. We are in the realms of buying things for a £1 with complicated small print on future returns if we make a success of it. I imagine labour are already at Contracts for Dummies lessons as I write.

Déjà vu - this happened before with First Oil purchase of 10.5% back in 2016 for a nominal figure. The Managing Director was a certain Steve Bowyer who you may have heard of. Cairn bought the other 4.5%. I imagine because nobody else wanted it?

This is a bit O/T and not really EnQuest related. I've just got back from a first visit to Albania https://www.britishpathe.com/asset/82584/ - a surprise birthday treat from my daughter because I had often said I would like to visit this spot. My father was in this raid and was wounded. It was close quarter and bayonets were used. The British lost 20 killed and 60 wounded. They drove the Germans out and took 30 prisoners. The partisans mopped up the rest - no prisoners.

I was surprised that in Himara nobody was aware of this raid. As my wife and daughter said it was a long time ago and who really cares? Well I do. The main casualties were 2 Commando and Highland Light Infantry(City of Glasgow Regiment) 2nd Bn. Also forgotten.

In Tirana I visited the sweetly named "House of Leaves" which is also called the National Museum of Secret Surveillance. It is horrific inside and under Enver Hoxha 1944-1985 became 1984. There were 5400 executions of political prisoners during this time. It was practically sealed off from the West. So not only was time against me practically 2 generations of Albanians knew nothing of the true events other than communist propaganda. The raid itself (Operation Healing) was only given 24 hours by the Albanian partisans for the raid. Hoxha did not want any permanent invasion by the West. A true tyrant in the mould of Kim Jong-il and Stalin.

I never saw a wind turbine and few solar panels but electric taxis in Tirana. They are blessed with hydroelectric and surprise, surprise - electric taxis are cheaper - I wonder why. Subsidies perhaps? My wonderful Hertz rental had 175,000k on the clock but it survived. It was easier to find bodywork without dents and scratches as they have a different approach. Rentals I imagine are ubiquitous as no railways and few buses.

I spent 2 days in Tirana and met a guy from the O&G industry who had moved into offshore wind. He had worked for Orsted and Wood. He'd also worked in Norway for 3 years. He said he was just following the money and was impressed by the Norwegian attitude to O&G which neither the Tories or labour have a clue about how it works. He was ex RAF engineer and we had a few drinks. His fear is the cabling and infrastructure. He said we have enough capacity for now - delivery is a massive problem. He said Ed Miliband tells lies. Ed and Enver Hoxha would have got along fine.

Https://x.com/Big_Orrin/status/1808761920071078328

About Australia but we're not that different:

https://x.com/aDissentient/status/1808474096465829894