Member Info for romaron

I seem to be in a minority here. So many closed minds. I never say never to anything happening. AB clearly has access to private funds and we are unlikely to ever find out the source. As long as it doesn't affect the company and is legal then he is entitled to his privacy. AB and his wife have their own charity and I know he supports others. I have no reason to doubt his integrity and the company faithfully follows governance rules. I feel that Faysal Hamza has an important role in the company, possibly above his rank, and very wealthy contacts (check his bio). The appointment of Laurie Fitch came as no surprise. They are around the same age and both attended Georgetown. Small details but they sometimes add up. Far better than watching the price of EnQuest and oil all day imo. Each to his own.

sorry - I know we're within covenants. What I mean is when we are well within them and have plenty of head room. AB sees opportunities and I hope he continues to grow the company.

Hi Pelle - I agree with your view on Soder. However, debt could be paid down quickly if the stars (POO) align. I*'m only thinking aloud. Rearranging debt is what investment banks do. Once we're back within covenants it's a whole new ball game. With the majors exiting the NS there are sure to be new models and structures of companies. I trust the prospectus and on P. 254 Double A and EnQuest EBT hold 13%. Add on Aberforth and Baillie Gifford (been loyal) and they control c.28 percent of the company. Not saying the company will go private, just saying they could. Saying goodbye to RBC and Barclays would be one benefit imo.

*we have some weather problems heading our way. London forecast to drop to -5c and a centimetre of snow is heading our way. Supermarkets running out of supplies.

Headline - "Largest UK gas find in decade fuels optimism for North Sea"

Largest in more than a decade. Glengorm prospect estimated reserve of gas and condensate equivalent 250m barrels of oil. Andy Samuel of OGA says the discovery underlined the 'considerable potential' remaining in UK waters. 'Our official estimate is that there still remains between 10bn and 20bn barrels plus to be recovered'.

To paraphrase mark Twain - 'The reports of the death of the North Sea are greatly exaggerated'.

You are so suspicious gkb. I have attended the last 4 AGM's and can be verified, can you? Ineos (a private company) have access to capital markets and continue to. Chrysaor are supported by capital market funds so I don't know what you're suggesting? Do you really think that discussions here affect the market in EnQuest shares? Suggesting trolls have reached me is offensive. AB holds an effective and large amount of shares. Companies have been taken over with a much smaller starting base. Conversation with you is over.

Companies are attacked by activist shareholders with a much smaller holding than AB. With the percentage he controls and this is open to debate but I'm guessing about 9 percent and it works two ways imo. It is a protection against unwanted interference and I think that this is part of the reason plus it is a good investment. If AB decided to go private I doubt much would stand in the way. I don't think Ineos are in a hurry to go public. Their CEO still has the bruises from 2008/9 and avoids the City as much as possible. With AB's holding he has options.

*The last accurate percentages of AB's controlling interest was in the RI prospectus (cannot be arsed to look) as Morningstar double counted AB & Double A as this shower do https://www.youinvest.co.uk/market-research/LSE:ENQ?tab=6

gkb47 - so I'm perfect and everybody is in agreement with me. I'll take that. I don't get that indoors. Confirming or disagreeing usually helps me develop a strategy and might highlight something I've overlooked. I thought it might stimulate comment. I haven't even got the red filter indicating a post is blocked.

At 9.13 I posted this: "I feel we are as close to the new wave of private companies that entered the NS in the past few years as we are to a public company."
I was hoping that there might be a few responses because I feel that I'm with a group of LTH's who approach investment in the same way that the owners of Chrysaor, Ineos and Spirit to an extent. The often quoted phrase by WB of 'buy when others are fearful' isn't really true when a stock has a relatively large following and holding by small private investors (PI's). Many PI's are day traders and punters with a much shorter time frames and some don't even research or subscribe to professional information. Some don't even buy newspapers and the advice I was given on FREE advice is that it costs nothing and is worth the same. I find certain posters here are on my wavelength and searching for facts. The WB phrase works for him because he makes his own assessment rather than relying on outside analysts. He obviously pays attention in respect that they throw up bargains or misread situations but he trusts his own judgement and doesn't think he is infallible; just right more often than wrong with his investment choices. When I worked in the City a good question was 'where's the clever money?'. I don't profess to be in that team but Chrysaor and Ineos are imo. If you use WB as an example you do really need the longer horizons and patience he practises. You are not likely to find it here.
The following and febrile nature of having an army of PI's is not ideal and I would imagine AB has looked across at private companies who don't have the added pressure of broker scrutiny (at times) by analysts who march to a different beat than a company being built (who would have invested in Ocado by listening to them?) during a period of headwinds (oil price and shale) with a pang of jealousy. AB is certainly aware of it and brought it up in his Davos 2018 interview.
We are poised for consistent growth and reduction of debt so I expect a more benign environment going forward. The company hasn't done much wrong imo but has been through an economic storm.

*I omitted Delek because they're not private but it is interesting that they are interested in the NS too and sniffed around Kraken. I would call them 'clever money' too.

I don't know if Michael Gove is a holder but he would pooh pooh this forecast:

https://www.mcdan.com/priceforecast

I quite like it.

operate on instant gratification and react to every movement of the stock or oil price. In the real world there are timetables and delays to actions. I don't know enough about oil trading to profess expertise but everything needs to be paid for and positions covered which is exactly what happens in FX which I do know something about. For a start spot currencies deal 2 working days ahead. If you hold the position you can cover the next day and the period is called tom/next. That's it. If you mess up a foreign currency it is difficult or impossible to cover a position on the day. That can become messy so you might decide to cover a position by doing a swap for a fixed period - 1 month being the most popular. So, even money isn't instantly tradeable. Knee jerk reactions to breaking news obviously move the price. You deal first and worry about what you do with long and short positions later. Luckily there is not price moving news every hour which if you read some of the more febrile posters and makebates would seem to be the case.
We've seen how long it takes for fields to reach production in a world of acronyms FDP, FEED, FID etc... and it is clear that the oil industry doesn't work on spontaneity; unlike bulletin boards.
I am encouraged by the OPEC news. They would have had deals and contracts that needed to be settled/honoured so it would have been near impossible to cut production immediately and a staggered reduction was implemented. I've always had a suspicion about shale but it is here and is effectively a manufacturing process with an ON/OFF switch. It is not the solution as for refining purposes there is a need for heavier oils. It is also debatable that the low fruit has already been picked and a possibility that environmental damage will increase. But I would say that wouldn't I as a LTH. Maybe, but I've put money on it by buying EnQuest stock. I'll admit to being happier on the day when the price rises but then who among us enjoys queuing or waiting?

*I was in a coach going from Madonna to Verona on Saturday. A member of our group is a consultant and expert witness in medical negligence (brainy) who dabbles in property. He has just installed an air source heat pump in one of his rural properties. His reasoning is that oil will only get more expensive and not a long term solution. What did hit home was when he said, "practically every thing in and on the coach was made from or used oil". Oil is very complex with no easy answers. Get it right and rewards are commensurate (Jim Ratcliffe - richest man in Britain).

Today so far, 18 posts. Using the Filter I have reduced to 8 readable posts. I don't miss anything. The stridency and effort that provocateurs put in relies on the oxygen and encouragement that replying to them provides. Filter them and they will eventually give up. Surely, even they have better things to do.

I am a holder and quite aware of the threats to EnQuest. I've also worked in various roles and a dealing environment in the City. Of course risk is always there but the real world isn't perfect and prediction is plain impossible to get right (OK, maybe death and taxes). It doesn't make you clever to emphasise and expand on perceived problems or the nirvana around the corner. There are enough stress testers already here and they make interesting reading. For me Fernan and E121 stand out here whilst MO and chilting provide accurate live info. We can't all do things as well as the next person so this pooled approach is why I'm here.

Build it and they will come.

Hi gkb47 16.07 - I don't agree. There is no collegiate feeling or common purpose among holders of the bonds imo and wrong to imply a sinister conspiracy. I think it's more a reflection of the POO movement at the tail end of last year. Bonds are like a tanker. Much harder to come to a stop or turn around. I think those selling got a bit carried away. Since September the bond came off c.20% and the equity c.50%. Time lag and overshoot will mean we are due a bounce. The bonds took fright with the RI and declining POO combining. AB got the timing spot on for the RI and we got a bargain with Magnus. Rumours about Kraken problems didn't help either but I've never known a project of the size of Kraken going superbly from day one. Common sense suggests a conservative prudent approach when dealing with the sort of amounts involving an FPSO are involved Bonds and equity are symbiotic but the rules are slightly different. It might seem strange but I'm quite pleased I didn't slavishly follow the bonds and I actually increased my holding during this period. Ignorance really can sometimes be bliss and I am not held hostage by reports or ratios.

I hope the poster Soder picks up on this because he seems to know what he's talking about. If you compare the HY bond with the Retail bond they are remarkably similar down to the slight kick up at beginning of last December. Going back to posts of the 18 Jan Soder posted this:
"They usd and gbp have different capitalisation/ interest payment dates so have different prices. The dollar is mainly institutional and the gbp largely a retail bond that can be purchased in smaller clips. Current prices are low 80s on the gbp and 75 mid on usd.

It’s all otc and unless you have the right subscriptions I am not sure you can.[view daily price of HY bond]
Those USD bonds are actually largely held by European funds and traded out of London.

The bonds were as low as mid 60s at the start of the year although very little traded there. They bounced with oil at the start of Jan and have met some resistance here although it’s become very illiquid. Next move will depend on oil price and ops update due late Jan/early feb."
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My only comment on the point that the HY funds are held by European Funds and largely dealt in London is that it is possibly immaterial in the wider sense as they behave exactly as US Funds dealing out of New York or Chicago (I stand to be corrected). Now throw in this from yesterday's Times: Tom Becket of Psigma Investment Management, a wealth manager, says investment bonds set the price for other assets, and are too big to ignore.
“Bonds dominate global investment. Stock markets are tiny spots in comparison.”

Aren't we missing something here? A good big 'un will always beat a good little 'un and that is even more true when a company is heavily leveraged with debt. At this stage of the EnQuest story the price is dictated to by the bond market; not the stock market. The tail doesn't wag the dog. A market cap of c. £314m against debt of c. £1.440m says it all. The debt is under control and being reduced. If I was still in the market and watching the bond sinking I would sell the equity as I very much doubt they move in opposite directions! The sellers aren't necessarily hedge fund shorters as bbs like to blame but probably bond holders and their pilot fish. It's not rocket science. They slavishly follow analysts, credit agencies and ratios. They are there for the dividend in the end and companies like EnQuest are judged harder than others imo. The gamble is to pick a stock that the bond market doesn't like. When that opinion changes the stock will fly!

Perhaps a break helps. The amount of red filtered messages makes for far easier reading and responding to provocative messages is self defeating unless that is your reason for joining a bulletin board. Personally I stopped playing 'knock down ginger' at about 7 years old.

Of course there are negatives and can somebody tell me of a business that doesn't have problems with capacity, forecasting, and break-downs etc. at some stage of their existence? It applies to all businesses and industries. Oil is an essential commodity, subject to cycles with political and economic interference. Basically, I don't believe that AB and his team are doing anything other than the best job they can and increasing reserves and production.

I posted the snap shots of Friday 19 Jan HY bond price and chart. I will make a separate post about why they are important imo.

https://ibb.co/8x3XCMR

https://ibb.co/6PTcQHb

https://romaron.imgbb.com/

Back from the slopes at Madonna do Campiglio and a tad disappointed that EnQuest didn't pay for it. I had a very quick read and see we've had a mild infection on this board. The cure is given by gkb47 08.03 and is 100 percent guaranteed (similar to thrush in more ways than one). The subject of this post is that IR did respond regarding the HY Dollar Bond and I have 2 images that I feel are important. Can anybody help me get them up here? Happy to email a regular on here. My throwaway email is romaron49 at gmail.com

Thank you Soder. That is a dichotomy that isn't always considered with EnQuest. Equity is UK based. Retail Bond is UK based but the HY Dollar Bond is heavily weighted to US investors who are totally unsentimental and ready to cull at the drop of a hat. The market for EnQuest is driven by the algos and hedge funds in the absence of funds that have strict financial mandates to work to (credit ratings, indexes, covenant obsessiveness, risk aversion etc.) and a large PI base which is uncoordinated and unable to really dictate either to the company or the market. The RCF is important but I don't know the details.
This makes us a target whilst debt ratios are high and the POO low. It is changing imo and the video by Jonathan Swinney and the AB purchase indicates that the company has consolidated and can now start reducing debt.
A nice end to the week imo. The pundits or analysts if you prefer have covered themselves with a negative view in case POO goes lower and in their shoes I'd maybe agree to keep my job safe. Stocks go down as often as they go up so there is a propensity for analysts to downgrade more often than loyal (sometimes misguided) LTH's.
It could be worse. We could be on AIM and in the clutches of death spiral financiers.

*Is there anywhere you can get the latest HY $ Bond price for free?

That'll confuse the algos. They're the only ones left at this time of day on a Friday.

I have asked EnQuest for the current price of the High Yield bonds; it's the second time. It isn't a trick question and probably not that important as I'd imagine it works similarly to the Retail Bond and is pretty close in terms. The RCF is possibly commercially sensitive. My enquiry was stimulated by Pelle's 11.22 post. The 70,000 bopd might have been on a good day with a full choke but I was more interested in the 'overly creative' quote in regards to innovation. My reading is that they've taken some flak recently with what is commonly seen as an over-complicated business regards financing. Well, needs must and I think this could indicate that for now they will be more traditional in their attitude to finance which is what the market likes. Perhaps somebody could explain why the PMO retail bond is rated so much higher than ours. Is it the PIK which could be the equivalent of driving with the hand-brake on?
I've tried several avenues to get a price for the HY bond (XS1517932585) but been unsuccessful. I get as far as 'subscribe' which is a bit rich for something I assume is in the public domain. Perhaps I'm wrong?
I posted now because I'm off skiing tomorrow and would have liked an answer today. Any Bond wizards out there?

*I came across this - it's old but generally D. Stevenson knows his stuff https://moneyweek.com/480872/two-oil-bonds-for-adventurous-investors/