Member Info for romaron

Hi E121 - I take your points. I don't really know enough about shale companies performance so accept your point that they are doing better than I imagine. I don't mind being wrong because I learn more that way. I'm glad Pelle intends to stop engaging in futile engagement with posters whose motives are at best equivocal. I have taken Pelle off FILTER and it wasn't personal. It makes me sound arrogant but there are better ways to waste time than engage with provocateurs and it was a way of trying to bring this informative board back to a level of respect and politeness. Few, if any faux shorters bring anything new to our discussions. I'm also indifferent to others 'averages'. In my experience the best traders were the quietest and said little. Of course there is a bias towards optimism and that is common on all BBs. I've nothing against shorting and we should all consider it as prices do move in two directions.
Maybe some of us will meet at the May AGM. They are dangerous in that you normally come away gung-ho as the board and management of EnQuest are impressive and it has only been going since 2010 and is still in a growth phase. The first 4 years oil was over $100 and it has been a battle since 2014. We are in the right game if you take notice of what private equity is doing. Blaming management for not forecasting correctly ignores the fact that BP and Shell have made some right rickets in their time so a longer view is essential. At the last 2 AGM's dividend has been brought up. AB makes it clear that it is not an ambition of the company in the near future and he would be a major beneficiary of any dividend. Growth and debt reduction are the drivers. It doesn't stop people asking stupid questions and I've asked my share.
The company is secure and as long as POO keeps to projections (mcdan.com are experts, unlike anonymous posters) we'll be fine. We are robust enough to withstand downturns in oil and poised to take advantage of anyincreased demand.
Makebates post that we don't measure or consider negatives. That's not true and I've never seen one ask why Neil MvCulloch and Richard Hall are no longer with us? I don't know for sure and the company will remain tight lipped but their areas of responsibility didn't perform well. It is at the back of my mind and I did have a worry this week that I discussed away from this board. It was resolved and made me even happier. I reads Fernan's post and my only comment is that he misses the point of what this company was set up to do.

Be Lucky - you have to be in it to win it.

Hi E121 - Nobody is more confused than me about US oil prices, waivers and Russia etc.... It might be worth getting some expert input here.

My 2 pennyworth - I think shale is operating at a loss. The glut goes to inventories as shale isn't suitable for all processes and is priced at a discount whilst the US buys the necessary oil on the open market. The most visible oil price is at the pumps and shale is fine for that so Trump is keeping his base happy. The China trade threat and Brexit is having a dampening effect on manufacturing around the world so demand is not strong. Trump deals in expediences and can impact a market for the news cycle but eventually has to come to heel. The shale companies don't get sympathy here but the US has always been parochial and it remains to be seen if their government will help them out. Threats of cartel breaking laws regarding OPEC are hot air imo. Too many cross ties to end by diktat.
Russia - whatever Putin says it is often the opposite of his intentions.
Saudi Arabia - the ultimate customer. They can and might take their business elsewhere. I wouldn't read too much into the Khashoggi murder as the backlash toward Putin on MH17 was pathetic/non-existent.

The US is a hegemony supported by the biggest and best funded military in the world. They are running roughshod over large swathes of the world and have been getting their own way for decades. Their quest for profit and self-interest is getting more resistance than at any time in my memory. It's all very complicated and confusing.
One thing I don't subscribe to is that the US makes the rules. They have in the past but the world is getting tired of the selfish actions and rhetoric from an extremely rich country led by a reality TV bully.

Auson - I agree. Perhaps over a period it would mean more. Too much data sometimes.

You're not helping me E121. Not for the first time I've regretted a post. No volume but I suspect it's not open. I wouldn't worry too much about stuff past August as usually thin and traders not known for looking too far ahead. I expected the gap to be wider as tight oil not in high demand by refineries but always learning. Transportation and pipe capacity will have bearing too. Oh well, back to the drawing board.

Fight oil meant tight oil. Who ever invented predictive text should burn in hello.

Could be showing my ignorance here but isn't the clue in the letter A? American. With one of shale's markets partially closed (Venezuela) there was always going to be an inventory build? The shale companies have no other option than to produce from wells in play. They might be losing on the sale but need money desperately and sunk costs means there is still a cash benefit even if not a profit? We've been there ourselves. I would be interested in what fight oil is currently trading at.

Reflection on update. BP doing well and making the right decisions. Part of that is divestment and I'd imagine they are very fussy with whom they deal; TUPE being only one of the reasons. They've had enough of poor PR. Being chosen by BP already speaks volumes for EnQuest. I'd say we're currently in a good place.

redetin - without getting into detail the recovery is not 50per cent of what is potentially in the field. If you add 'commercial' recovery to the statement you are not going to get 1 bn barrels. It is still a lot of oil and the equation works both ways. A high oil price increases the recovery whilst a lower leaves it in the ground. More technical people will explain better but I think EOR is only single figure percentages and AB was talking about 3P. What is important is the remaining 2P reserves. Beyond them technology may help but you're not gonna get all the last oil out. It was a bit sloppy of AB to phrase it that way and for the 2 interviewers not to pick him up on it. Oil in place is a term more often used by the likes of David Lenigas (Gatwick Gusher) and misleading imo.

Busy day but made simpler by not having to read 69 out of 137 posts (basically half). DD has been saying this for months and you miss little. I thoroughly recommend it.
Maybe coincidence [or not] but BP also announced their Q4 figures today and I like this comment from the FT
"Q4 beats by miles. It's the kind of beat that suggests not that BP outperformed expectations but that the herd of analysts got it quite seriously wrong." Food for thought. BP have another $10 bn of divestments over the next 2 years.
Operating between tramlines stops you going off-piste but also means you miss out on other experiences.

"If EnQuest keeps pumping at this rate or better and oil price keeps rising our investment will be eye wateringly good in 6 to 12 months." Not my words but an ex Shell employee who whatsapped me today. He worked with some of the Chrysaor people.

*E121 13.57 Perhaps for another time. It makes sense what you write but Ineos problems in 2008/09 were with their bondholders and covenants. I need education in this area. Prospectuses and small print aren't my specialist subject.

Be Lucky

Now I'm doing it. It's easy to start rambling (guilty) and I do appreciate the effort that you and Fernan put in. It has to interest you or be a skill. We're so close now to an update that we will have a new set of figures to work from shortly. We cannot predict but guesses have to be made and I'm quite happy with the McDan January forecasts. I'm lucky enough to have a few whatsapp pals who don't like bb's and share stuff with them too. It can be quite lonely as a PI and a sounding board can be useful. I like what Soder post too. I reckon he knows a bit more than anybody else here regards bonds. I used to ignore them to a point. That was wrong.

Hi E121 - It is to avoid the unnecessary regurgitation and repetition of similar points. I also don't require a minute by minute price of oil or the sp. Out and out trolls go in the bin after a few posts. I expect some have me in the red bin too. I feel that zeroing in on the minutiae distracting (probably because I'm so useless at it). I realise its importance but really only need to be told once. To me it's a bit like polishing the hand rails when the icebergs are a bigger threat. If you can believe AB's 2019 video we are already in calmer waters.

January - I always see red. It's the FILTER colour. Rough count today, 57 red posts.

An interesting article WEny. Shale's reliance on High Yield debt will flounder in a period when lenders just don't have the risk appetite and companies will fold. This is indicative: "Shalecompanies in the E&P sector have not held a single bond sale since the start of November, according to Dealogic's." A nervous world only likes AAA and sovereign debt at the moment if you can believe what's coming out of the likes of Bloomberg and BlackRock.

We've seen how holders of debt can manipulate and dictate to companies close to covenant breaching. It's even more commendable what AB achieved with this background and the successful RI. We raised money when others couldn't. Unfortunately we are still lumped in with those who could be in a death-spiral but that is what markets and bonds can do. They aren't always that discerning. AB was talking about private equity [smart money] moving into the NS in his 2018 Davos video. Like a grandmaster he plans several moves ahead and in oil that can mean years. We have sorted out our debt ahead of the shale lending drought that is spreading to other basins like the NS. The market hasn't taken this into account imo. We are ahead of the curve and paying down debt. It was close!

The ratios that the market lives by are improving for EnQuest and the big simple numbers are likely to be good imo. EBITDA especially.

IR had nothing to add other than the depressed price wasn't helped by an "existing seller". The amounts traded here are tiny but if the persistent seller has gone then maybe it will float higher just on that. All rather odd TBH.

*The emphasis was on hubris. Kraken doesn't fit the small field definition in the article. In fact it emphasises what a game changer Kraken is and that fields of Kraken's size are becoming as rare as hen's teeth.

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-03/the-curious-case-of-norway-s-60-million-barrels-of-missing-oil

Also interesting discussions regarding Venezuela. The US Gulf refineries are having to look elsewhere for essential heavy oil. Baghdad and Riyadh may not be too eager to help after the US backtracking on Iranian waivers. Often missed is the likelihood that shale oil (C5) which was used to blend Venezuelan oil to something more useable has lost part of an export market until these local problems are sorted. I imagine shale oil is pretty cheap at the mom so will keep Trump's motorists happy.

*Neil McCulloch's EnQuest experience will certainly help with 3. Hubris and Tiny Fields.

....sorry, it wasn't UT movements but midday auctions back in June. I think it might have been an electrical tic from the life-support equipment back then.

It could be something or nothing and I am leaning towards the latter. I think our US owners regard our AIM quote as a quaint relic of the Avanti Empire. For whatever reason it suits them to keep us on life support and the weird movements of the sp are possibly due to a draft from an open window or the junior responsible leaving early yesterday because of the snow threat. I posted this on 12 June after some weird UT movements.

"It appears that they aren't even keeping up the pretence of AVN having an orderly market. We know there are hundreds of millions of shares available but they are largely held by the bondholder/shareholders and are basically lock-up paper and the few PIs left have them in a drawer and will see what the Gods will bring. The only reason we know this is:
(a) the pitifully small amount traded
(b) the spread
(c) the AIM rules that mean we have an auction any time there is a mismatch which is almost a foregone conclusion with the current amounts and spread. These then have to be reported, hence the RNS's!

We still have a Nomad and a rule of AIM is that you must retain a broker at all times. The current situation makes it uneconomic for the broker and they aren't being helped (it seems) by the company. Each day it appears that AIM isn't really in their plans. When something is no longer needed it tends to be forgotten and overlooked. The share price is no longer indicative of anything imo and it's either the Directors have thrown the towel in (without telling us) or a plan (good or bad) is being prepared.

It smacks of poor governance to let this charade continue. Perhaps the dénouement is closer than we think!"

I would love to be wrong. I'll send an email to their IR. They're usually a waste of time but you never know.

....and in my Selftrade account (which normally uses the UT price the figure is 3.505p

Curious and curiouser.

I wonder why it was early? Usually 16.35

Thanks for that chilting. I was beginning to think I was alone. I'm not after confirmation or agreement, just a readiness to consider other ideas and possibilities. Throw a few ideas and observations around to see what transpires.