Member Info for romaron

...can hardly release information that may be gossip or rumour. I was thinking that his view on the overall market (inflation, rate rises) may have coloured his outlook but his forecast has been one of the better ones. It may have have been that for once the G (as in ESG) was causing him concern?
What does this mean. Are the 2 resignations just coincidence? There has always been a bit of the autocrat in AB. I hope I'm wrong. On the other hand this is extremely interesting and I think we may have more (good) surprises in store. The numbers are hardly likely to be poor so why the dance of the 7 veils? It feels like we're an RNS short.

We've lost the Chairman and CFO. Not a good look. Some explanations due.

That's a bland RNS even for us. It takes two so maybe it was a surprise to AB as well. I can't remember anything that Martin Houston did or said during his tenure. I require a lot more information than is provided here. Maybe another RNS in the system?

The FTSE 250 took a hammering today. There is a loose connection.

Well EnQuest have all the info from the data room of Bentley and don't forget that Statoil paid Excite $15mio for EWT data back in 2013/14. If Bressay does go ahead then it does make Bentley more likely.
EnQuest entered into the Bressay deal back in July 2020 and announced Bentley on April 2021 (completed July 2021). Little was spent on acquiring Bentley so dangerous to read too much into it.
Possibly irrelevant but I spoke to one of the founders, Nigel Hares, at my first AGM and I asked about Bentley back in 2015. He said they looked at it but decided not to go ahead; obviously choosing Kraken instead. EnQuest know this neck of the woods well (since before 2010) and technology doesn't usually go backwards. We are close to 2 years post Bressay. There is no way EnQuest can make any announcement without Equinor involvement. If we are frustrated tomorrow regarding a limited update it may be because of Equinor? Full disclosure would be a dream and there is a ready made excuse with the EPL meaning slide rules need to be plugged back in.

It seems those closer to the action had a different view to those on the outside:

"While hedge funds were busy bailing from stocks at a record pace as the S&P 500 plunged into a bear market, Corporate America was furiously buying."

Goldman Buyback Desk Was Flooded With Orders During Stock Rout: Source Bloomberg

My view is that the likes of AB and their boards are more your prop traders. The hedge funds get judged by performance indicators and chase the volatilility along with day-traders. When you buy a share for the longer term you kinda enter a different contract and it requires patience. Didn't think it'd take this long though!

The funds still in the O&G sector have the patience of Job.

I think it is something of a non-story for now. It will bring economic benefits to the whole region and frankly the only country that can protect development is probably Israel. Sabre rattling and posturing comes with the territory. You need some offshore security and the Israelis are the major military power in the region with US backing.
It is better to have an asset that can be shared and Beirut could certainly do with the tax income when developed and as the Germans say "Wandel durch Händel".

*my daughter did a year at IFPO Beirut and is a fluent Arabic speaker. Might come in useful.

At Bressay, it is expected that a field development plan will be developed during 2022, while at Bentley, initial evaluation of the development potential are due to commence in the first quarter of 2022.

The EnQuest Producer FPSO remains in warm stack at Nigg while the Group continues to evaluate options.

That was 3 months ago almost. Fresh info would be welcome and is expected.

Fed rate up .75%. How will that impact us? I think it is tinkering with the larger economy and there should be a reduction in the demand for oil worldwide. However, there doesn't seem much incentive around to encourage new FDP's in the US or UK. In a world hostile to fossil fuels why would/should you step forward and volunteer without guarantees.
There are changes almost every day and I hope AB has remained flexible. Sitting on our hands will be rewarding without the risk of this spiteful governement or the next one.
Meanwhile the physics of depletion of oil fields continues. Friday could be interesting. The story is still unfolding and events have an unpredictability that can make hasty decisions regrettable in a short space of time.
We are entering a period of uncertainty stronger than we've ever been. I'd imagine EnQuest have been inundated with approaches. The majority would be from investment banks and M&A teams whose whole business is about "pitching" ideas and thinking ahead. Some of them might even interest us. We aren't gonna find out on Friday I guess and chances are that the RNS will be relatively bland.
In the big picture field declines are working their magic if the oil companies decline to blow Capex (likely). I can't see a big drop in oil for several years and even if they started now we won't start seeing results until mid 2024 at the earliest I guess.

I understand that English is not your first language Pelle but crisis (as in energy crisis) is the term used by governments and is a euphemism. The correct term is "energy emergency" and there are, sadly, no quick answers.

I don't disagree.

That is Bloomberg's theme today. It doesn't really affect me that much and they are like listening to KO on steroids. When a stock (UK O&G) are already bouncing along the bottom ratio wise then there is little risk if the company is a "going concern". I started to try and get some figures on how much of a downturn you get in economic activity, not share price movement during bear markets and recessions. I suppose the benchmark could be GDP but I'm no economist.
What I was trying to ascertain is the drop in demand for oil and gas. Let's park gas for now as we are largely an oil producer.
The numbers are surprisingly low and many people never even noticed the 'Great Recession' of 2008 and 2009 and in the US GDP declined by 0.3% in 2008 and 2.8% in 2009.
Forget all that. We have had a miserable time with Saudi driving the price down in the shale war and then Covid. But that was a double whammy! The oil producers flooged to death existing fields and with low prices cut back on Capex.
Mar 20 'Aramco reports a natural decline rate of 8%. For us [EnQuest] on some fields it was close to 20%. Now, we know Saudi Arabia lie so for ease of reference lets call decline rate 10%. Put that against the demand that will remain for oil even in a recession. People still need transport, food and warmth. Then there is the cement needed for Ukraine and Syria as well as fertiliser (gas) to avoid famine.
I'd say there's been little replacement for over 3 years on new fields or increased Capex but the declines don't stop. That'd be a shortfall of 30%. Renewables mitigate by a tiny percentage and are certainly not going to save the day this decade.

It isn't an energy shortage. It's an Energy Emergency.

Had to go to Wood Green by train this morning so had headphones on and checked into Bloomberg. I can only take them in small doses because they're usually like a Brazilian football commentator when their team scores.
Imagine my surprise when they all roundly turned on Biden and his flip-flopping regarding oil and bringing in a WFT. A party elected on its ESG promises now begging the industry to build more refineries when it was largely their actions (chasing populist vote & ESG promises) which meant no new refineries have been built for 10 years. A female presenter exclaimed that they've just thrown the party [Democrats] into reverse gear. Biden (apparently) said that the oil industry is "making more money than God". No mention of the money they've lost during shale wars and Covid.
And after all this he still expects them to ride to the rescue? Doesn't he understand that it is a long cycle outside of shale and even there the best acreage has gone.
They don't think he'll get away with it and nothing could be enacted before Autum anyway.

I hope that AB is keeping his options open. Our government is in an even worse position and with the developments in the US out leverage is getting stronger.

I think we can take it as read that AB disagrees with James Hosie of Barclays.

Meanwhile - "Governments must make “urgent, significant” policy interventions to ensure hydrogen opportunities don’t fade, a report has warned." Enegy Voice today.

In Hydrogen Forecast to 2050, the technical advisory firm predicts the amount of hydrogen in the energy mix will be only 0.5% in 2030, and 5% in 2050. Translation - "lob us some more subsidy from the money tree".

“In order to achieve net zero we have to have a thriving oil and gas sector”.

An inconvenient truth.

Hi Juan - it's only a 5 minute walk from Liverpool St. There's a pub The Golden Heart close by where we can have a debrief afterwards. The landlady is deliciously rude and if she is there we may be welcomed or ejected. It was where Tracey Emin used to hang out. There is a jukebox so we can play Abba if the Swedes turn up or they may be pillaging elsewhere. It's a proper boozer imo. The Ten Bells is nearer but is rubbish. Spitalfields has plenty of restaurants and food stalls. Not as good as Borough but adequate.
There'll be a QA after the official stuff which is usually pretty swift. After you can have a wander and talk to the Board and Enquest employees attending. The QA is no different to when the analysts ask questions and sometimes you feel fobbed off but they (and you) have to be aware of stock market rules. There could be a non-disclosure agreement in place put in at the insistence of the other party/parties. Analysts wouldn't ask if buyers were forming a queue for example but PI's aren't professional so we can ask what we like. They may not answer or be able to but there is no harm in trying. The board isn't hostile and all questions - dopey ones as well, are treated with seriousness and respect.
Probably means nothing but instead of a hotel or EnQuest H.O. we are in a lawyers office. That's handy if the board has other matters to attend to and I'm not sure if they are our regular lawyers (Therapist teritory for finding out). I'm still not happy or satisfied with the excuse given for the date change of this AGM but it has worked in our favour as plenty has occurred since and we may get some info that they can discuss and add colour to from a 7.00 RNS in the morning.
I'd get there about 15 minutes early to get checked in. You need some authorisation and may be asked for proof of identity (I was at ENOG last month).
Remember that AB and board are skilled at deflection and the non-answer but can be thrown by a simple question. It is kinda pointless repeating questions he has either used in his presentation or the RNS (if there is one). AB has been known to read the message board prior to the AGM. Don't post if you want to surprise them.

As the subject is value I don't think we should underestimate the importance of companies like us in the transition. Fine-tuning will always be diffilcult but our role is built into existing models and we are hard-wired into the system for majors divesting end of life fields and achieving the scale of new production and renewables where we are too small to have much impact. What we do in the renewable space is small beer compared to the majors and has limited impact. However, we do bring flexibility and expertise. There's value in that.

Hi Dumbly 10.19 - I think you've covered it pretty well and that is my understanding too. There is only so far a company earning decent FCF can go backwards and I think we have crossed that point anyway. BlackRock today was asked for tips and said Healthcare and some Tech. No fossil fuel energy but also no renewables. I detect the narrative (a.k.a. "the big lie") is changing and the weekend papers were full of stories about long grass and the abandonment of COP26 targets. The world is facing headwinds both economic and political. The energy shortage is real and the only thing that solves it is reduced demand or higher prices. Renewables are struggling to fill the vacuum.
Why wait until Friday to ask a question? If it is about tax treatment that isn't a secret or commercially sensitive. Current negotiations and board room discussions probably are. IR will answer them because they are company law and legislated taxes. They are in the public domain but the general public (me) doesn't understand the small print and tax avoidance or delaying possibilities.
For me it's quite simple. Within whatever we do there is likely to be close to $3bn earned in the next 3 years. We pay tax of (max.) 25% on that leaving $2.25bn. Repay debt of $1bn and you're left with $1.25bn or £1bn .
I know it is a fag packet calculation but close to the fundamentals imo.
We are earning super profits but the industry still has the red skull and crossbones stamped on it with TOXIC in capital letters below.
We are a healthy "going concern" so my calculations will somehow be absorbed but they are real profits and if EPS ever means anything again in the O&G industry then it will put the proverbial rocket under the price.

Build it and they can't ignore it.

Also said that US consumers are sitting on $3 trillion of cah. That's a lot of noughts.

I'm moving more into cash. AB is doing it for me.