Member Info for romaron

Apologies Pelle - I try not to boast but it was actually a beef cassoulet. Tomorrow with this market it will be bread and dripping.

Not a headline you'll ever see. The media has taken over and everything you read is hyped up out of all proportion. A recent survey found that "ninety per cent of what we worry about doesn't come to fruition" so instead the media and certain posters here concentrate on "the 10 per cent that does".
I doubt many portfolios are showing a profit (excluding EnQuest) this year because to really gloat you'd have to have said I sold out of everything and now only hold cash. I haven't read anyone posting that they've done this. To unwind a portfolio is a bit like trading with your house. Quite a few of us thought prices were toppish but I've no chance of selling with my wife whose name is on the deeds too. She goes on about family, neighbours, my daughter brought up here and things like that.
Of course things could get worse and for those of you who love charts [I stopped reading them about the same time I stopped reading horoscopes] there is a delightful one from Neal Hudson a residential analyst and a visiting Fellow of Henley Business School who a few hours ago posted this on twitter "Mortgage rates at 6% would suggest UK house prices are over-valued by 71% according to my simple model.
That's higher than the 59% peak in 2007 and just below the 79% recorded in 1989." This is of course excellent news for my daughter who doesn't own a property.

*Paul Volker agrees with KK that tax cutting and regulation slashing into rising rates has worked before.

No offence and feeling very safe behind my keyboard I am filtering those who insist on telling us of their every trade or charts and candlesticks that are of no relevance to me or the majority of those who read this board. I accept there are traders on this board but not something that interests me.

I had braised steak and creamed mash for dinner and might wash the car tomorrow.

He's probably working and can't come out to play. Why don't you throw in the towel BT - it's a mismatch.

Seems to be flavour of the day on Sky. They bring on ex- BoE officials and the usual claptrap. This isn't a serious attack. Strong dollar weakens commodities and everything has a for and against.
In truth the FX market is usually too big to fight against but Central Banks do have weapons. Euro sterling swaps will be very high at present and the BoE does have weapons here on those shorting the currency. You can't just go overdrawn as they can be very inventive on charges e.g. the spread of the day on spot. They can also squeeze the liquidity which is where rates of a 1,000%+ overnight can reach. Something happened like this in April 2020 with the WTI fix. A lot is down to paper movement and dwarfs any underlying commerce trades. Those involved in this short end trading are either stupid or operating from a position of strength. There isn't much in the middle. You need to know what's going on.
It is early days with the new administration but I'd suggest they're pretty happy so far.

Totally agree KO. We [EnQuest] had our recession/depression in 2020 and H1 2021. I just realised that I hadn't looked at the price of oil this morning. I'm not concerned about it because I lived through many crises and have seen sterling in the 100's of percent but where the public would be totally unaware is the enormous flows and the impossibility of getting the timing right. Smart money has moved on and lets others fight over the scraps.
I'm also with you on TA. They build these complicated models and they get swiped away by a Putin move or an OPEC announcement. I must say I'm impressed by their excuses after the event. The only thing TA teaches is discipline. The real winners are those who have superior intel. or control the spreads. The stories I could tell but I'm still worried about "Statute of Limitations".
At EnQuest Towers they have plenty to keep them occupied and the price of oil, sterling, interest rates and valuations are indicative at best. Some of the moving parts change quicker than others. That's why I don't trade - I don't have the advantages I once had. I don't have any builders or retail in my portfolio but plenty of cash so feeling pretty well placed for whatever the market throws at us.

Be Lucky

We built it when others were exiting - a queue is building.

Er - the US are raising interest rates and their currency is strengthening. Glad to see that our resident troll is now not only an analyst but an economist. Where is it written that the BoE has to protect the pound? Lead and lags. You still can't make an omelette without breaking eggs.

Naturally the government can't say "a lower sterling would actually be good for the country". Howls from the opposition and unions would follow and be faithfully headlined in the news.
Some might remember this "Almost half a century ago, Prime Minister Harold Wilson told the country: "From now the pound abroad is worth 14% or so less in terms of other currencies. It does not mean, of course, that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued.”
It had but the effect is mostly hidden from the public. A grossly overvalued currency is also a barrier to growth. From memory when I entered the dealing room in 1972 the USD was 2.40 and the DEM 8.00
4 years later it was 1.80 and 4.50
Thimngs moved around a bit then too. On essential items you have little option but to pay the new price if there isn't a domestic option - oil anybody?

KK will be happy with the drop. It will help kick start growth. The Chinese have kept their currency pegged since 1994 and they have had some success with exporting. If it makes imports and holidays more expensive - tough. Redirection in the economy was needed. Afraid Labour's solutions aren't feasible imo and Boris Johnson had all the control of a pin-ball. We now have a chance now with a grown-up government.

*I can't believe I'm typing this (Left leaning)). It is looking good for EnQuest and the O&G sector once the dust settles

The truth is that the economy is un-understandable, and completely un-runnable without a functioning crystal ball that can accurately predict wars and crop failures. Which means it's all guesswork, and anyone can do that.

Not my words but from an article in the Sunday Times by Jeremy Clarkson. At first I though amusing but doesn't really add to the discussion. And then I thought, he's right and he's made the most sense so far. I'm pretty good at guessing myself; I'm just not very good at getting it right.
I've lived through recessions and this one hasn't even really started. They are ususally fairly short lived but some on this board have decided this one is a depression. I think it'll be unique as it isn't like the ones I lived through but aren't they all different in some way? Covid and a modern war almost simultaneously? Energy is playing a big part and the shortage is caused by demonisation of fossil fuels resulting in a lack of investment making the situation worse than it needed to be. I think Truss and KK get this. To alter the direction means ensuring security of a regular supply of it [Energy] as a first step.

Remember. You can feel the cold in a recession as well as boomtime.

Some will say I've finally lost the plot but most of you are aware of the Butterfly effect theory. The Fed, the BoE and the budget yesterday all had their impact but this weekend is different. I went to Costco Watford yesterday and had trouble parking. It was chocker and I had to sit and wait. I asked at the checkout if it was unusual but got no explanation. Got home and my wife who is a traffic expert (self-appointed) said that tomorrow would be quiet in our area because it is Rosh Hashanah the Jewish NY this weekend. Barnet, Mill Hill and Stanmore have large Jewish communities so they were 'getting stuff in'. This means (imo) that the financial markets were thinner than usual yesterday in New York, London and elsewhere because of this and the holiday added to volatility.

*I've been thinking about yesterday. Energy is a staff of life and society struggles without it so is not something you willingly give up in a recession. A recession affects sectors differently. For oil it doesn't mean negative demand growth; it means a moderation in demand growth and we know there is a fundamental shortage. I'm pretty confident we'll see $100 oil next year.
As they say "It's an ill wind......". My daughter isn't on the housing ladder (she enjoys life and flexibility too much) but is getting closer. I think house prices are due a big drop.

As with everything in life there will be winners and losers. I think oil is a safer haven then other sectors and in fact if you look at others (e.g. retail) we have done very well this year. We survived 2020 when the world basically shut down. This will be a walk-over and if China ends Covid lockdown there's a 20% jump just there.

Be lucky

Stick with trading BT. Interest rates are low and a bit of inflation mitigates. We've had a pandemic and a consistent attack from environmentalists based on a flawed premise. Ebb and flow of economics that is easily pigeon-holed as "recession". We don't need to enjoy penury or wear hair shirts whilst China and India increase their coal fuelled power plants. A smug feeling of saving the planet and blaming high energy prices and inflation doesn't cut it with me.
The masses aren't stupid but if offered handouts willingly take them. Sounds like you are envious of those who have done better than you.
BTW - our borrowing is much lower than Italy, France, Japan and Germany as a GDP ratio. Close to the US in fact. It's growth and productivity where we struggle. I'm retired but I worked just as hard as KO at his age.

I know Andrea Leadsom. We used to meet every year at the Schloss Lebenberg, Kitzbuhel (schools half-term) and I usually vote Labour. I made most of my money in the 80's with interest rates of 14% at one time. A bit of movement isn't gonna worry me.

Stay safe.

Dollar/sterling 1.08 That is anti-recessionary and our products are priced in dollars. I'm not convinced of a recession. The Great Depression of the 1930's used the wrong tools to get back to growth. Bit like bloodletting expected to cure diseases like epilepsy and plague. I'm also very suspicious of what China is up to. If there's any advantage they'll take it.
Trussonomics abetted by KK might be kinder to the oil industry than previous administrations. Governments around the world are calm on the surface but their actions don't match. The price of oil today we know is engineered but there is a nervousness about and the herd is jumpy. We really are in good shape this time and ready for most eventualities. We can't but BP and HBR continue to BUY their own shares. They know a bargain when they see one. That is a good a sign as any in my book.

Anything is possible and AB always plays his cards close. I was a tad surprised to see that there has been an approval (the first in years) for Ineos to develop a field in Denmark announced today. O&G expected in Q4 2023. That's warp speed for O&G.
https://www.ft.com/content/d33e8855-dcf3-4f38-a3aa-046feafcfac2
There are so many prospects but most likely we buy another end-of-life field and EP continues to niggle; what are the plans for it? I'm not too concerned as we are on high ground now and getting closer to nirvana - being debt free!

BT - you haven't told us what you're having for tea tonight?

Head of UAE's ADNOC al-Jaber says little room for manoeuvre in oil markets.
Speaking at an event in New York, Jaber also warned that underinvestment in the current energy sector before alternative sources of supply were ready was a recipe for disaster, not progress.

"If people’s basic energy needs are not met, economic development slows down, and so does climate action," Jaber said.
"If we under-invest in the energy system of today before the energy system of tomorrow is ready, we will only make matters worse."

Jaber put spare oil capacity at less than 2% of global consumption.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, a group known as OPEC+, has been warning since August that the spare capacity cushion was thin.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are believed to hold the bulk of that spare capacity within the alliance, and are the only two members with the ability to increase production in a meaningful way.

Source Reuters

Over supply at front end not unexpected. Only Nobody gets timing right and he's perfect. Wait until a cold spell or supply hiccup. It'll change quickly.

"Get active guys n gals these swings are meant for trading."

We've got the message. You've said it over 15,000 times.

in case I missed your question I am referring to the 11.41 post of mrc where EnQuest was mentioned and I think a lot of our arguments are condensed around 17 minutes in. It didn't sound to me as if he was in love with EnQuest but more the case it hit a lot of their BUY triggers. A recession would hurt all but we are already on the floor. Our downside and the decline of reservoirs gives us more protection than other sectors.

Hi Pelle - we've been down this road so many times. Are you sure about Avanza? If so that guy got 1 in 5 to invest. I'm impressed with his chutzpah.
Google says they have 1m customers so 1 percent into EnQuest. That would still be an achievement. I don't really think we're that popular.
What I like about Cape Wrath is that he's saying shut the noise out and look at the fundamentals. Nobody here knows what the next 3/6 months brings but I'll make a forecast. Winter will be cold and people will stay greedy. That's why I like EnQuest.
In an earlier post I likened EnQuest to a market stall. Very little capital value but plenty of earning potential. If the trend continues we'll have the ludicrous situation of our MC being a percentage of our yearly (or quarterly) FCF. That can't happen unless our government surrenders to Putin. Energy is our lifeblood. I'm expecting common sense to make a return.

Martin Houston has been Chairman since 1 October 2019. It would be tidy if his replacement arrived around early October 2022 (next month). I'm just wondering if the environmental lobby is making it harder to attract the right person? I can imagine some being asked by their kids, spouse and friends is it worth the risk of being hounded. Most have had a successful career and aren't desperate for money or grief.

Hi Pelle - I like the freshness of the approach but they are tiny and probably couldn't afford City premises. They got my attention and he seems to be an individual of some substance. Worth keeping an eye on imo. He has crystalised a lot of the comments and posts on this board and isn't lacking in drive or confidence. They're on the fringe and may grow. There aren't many companies covering smaller companies imo and there is more transparency than with the bigger companies. Together we probably know more than him about EnQuest but he brings it together better than we can explain. I'm going to start following him.