Member Info for romaron

Thinking back to our travails of 2015-2020 due to a combination of Covid and Saudi shale wars forced companies to close marginal fields earlier than planned. Well we've another attack with the EPL until 2028. That is going to shorten the life of remaining fields imo. I said 7/8 years using rough natural declines. The knock on effect is surely to make the NS even more inhospitable to new investment and shorten the period even further.
I left the BBC TV on and the spite towards the O&G industry, always using Shell and BP as examples, from Labour and Liberal members was if anything increased. They won't stop until the industry is hounded out of the UK.
The possibility that they might be wrong is never considered and frankly if it continues the industry will be past tipping point in a few years and it'll be all over. A high oil price (likely imo) will mean that the company can enjoy only 2/3 years in the UK and needs join Harbour and Neptune in pursuing a future outside of the UK.
I've been saying 2 years of only paying the EPL tax. Could it at a squeeze be 3 years?
I'm not ready to abandon this stock because we do have a breathing space and let's face it we're valued close to our annual FCF. We should have been a multi-bagger but we're certainly worth more than we are today.

Hi Dumbly - I just googled it and got "Jeremy Hunt said Thursday that the windfall tax will rise from 25 per cent to 35 per cent from January 2024 to March 2028 and that electricity generators will have to pay a new temporary levy of 45 per cent.1 hour ago Mind you it was the India Times.

UK increases windfall tax on profits of oil, gas companieshttps://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com › news › uk-

I shan'

The 35% doesn't start until 2024.

"Jeremy Hunt said Thursday that the windfall tax will rise from 25 per cent to 35 per cent from January 2024 to March 2028 and that electricity generators will have to pay a new temporary levy of 45 per cent."

onedb - so you think it's wrong for nurses, cleaners and carers to live near their work? I don't.

Funny old world. It was the Tories, the Party of business that ended investment in the NS. I thought bloodletting had ended in the late 19th century. I was wrong.

I wonder if the Industry will even fight back. What's the point?

KO I'll look at my position after the update. We'll get some idea of what we'll earn over the next 2 years with the tax losses being run to zero. It might be just a simple running down of the business as we gradually move to a different jurisdiction and the numbers add up. At the moment I cannot see a future for the UK NS.

We could have made a difference. O&G will still be needed for generations. At least they didn't take our tax losses away. Small rebound as uncertainty removed. I only have one small straw to cling to. The absurdity of the rise means there won't be any investment with Labour on the horizon and a currently incompetent administration. Miscalculations can be reversed and I wonder if they've got a contingency plan to encourage new developments. Even Labour would have to adjust plans if there is no NS O> in 7/8 years once they find out the money tree was a figment.

I did think that they'd leaked 35% so that (say) 30% would have been a neat compromise and jusy about acceptable. I obviously underestimated juststopoil.

Build it and they will come. It won't be in the UK though.

So they've thrown O&G under the bus. Can anybody see a FID on a large new field?

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/britons-most-oppose-raising-council-tax-and-vat-ahead-autumn-statement

quite meaningless really but the graph for support for potential economic policies is predictable. The only 2 out of 8 where oppostion is higher than support is:
7) not raising benefit payments next year as much as inflation and
8) cut bacj govt. spending on major infrastructure projects

1) raising the energy windfall tax on profits earned by oil and gas companies from 25% to 30% Support 71% Oppose 10%

I think they confuse O&G with the fabled money tree.

Out today. In Europe their UK investment is the lowest. They don't seem interested in us. This might explain.

"“We have been maturing new development opportunities across our global portfolio, however, some of these opportunities are at risk from potentially poorly targeted windfall taxes, particularly in the UK, Germany and the Netherlands. Neptune is supportive of a fair level of taxation, but mechanisms must not discourage investment in incremental production to support energy security priorities, as well as carbon reduction initiatives.”

European production is 45% Norway and 15% UK. The Chairman and CEO are British.

Hi Mriggy - actually that is a very good question. Off the top of my head I don't think there is.

Freudian slip "commital". I meant to write commitment.

Thing is Bastan there is no long term commital to the O&G sector even though it is essential to the "transition". Other parts of the world will continue to produce O&G and gain economic advantage. It'll be around long past 2050. I keep waiting for pragmatism and common sense to be part of the discussion. We were once renowned for our pragmatism and self-interest. Bring back perfidious Albion.

They say "sell on rumour, buy on fact" so we should have an up day whatever happens. I came across this which I'd imagine most of you have seen but I hadn't.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaOC722okEM

It doesn't say much but AB's quote about lines of communication isn't encouraging. Politicians are more worried about ratings and headlines. Events are on our side. As Macmillan famously said when asked what was the greatest challenge for a statesman, he replied: "Events, dear boy, events."

When they do happen lives, livelihoods and reputation are on the line. Equivocation stops working.

I was just wondering about the propulsion of these ships that are being built by BAE. I was a bit concerned that they'd be based on the Mary Rose but it seems that at least in this area common sense survives.
Type 26 Frigate
1 × Rolls-Royce MT30 gas turbine[16]
4 × MTU Type 20V 4000 M53B high-speed diesel generators[16]
2 × electric motors

They also chose helicopters over gliders.

I hope that there is a thorough investigation and a measured response. It does though show the danger of relying on unproven sources of energy and how the world remains an unsafe, selfish place. The ignorance and naivety of the climate activists and their supporters is now exposed. There will be a lot of backtracking by Labour and I daresay the SNP. It didn't ned to be like this. The transition was never going to happen overnight and renewables are nowhere near as cheap or climate friendly as their proponents preach.

Build it. They have to come.

who can outramp me. Wrote on twitter yesterday: "Oil trading down $3/bbl because OPEC forecasts oil demand to "only" grow by 2.2MM Bbl/d in 2023? Really?!? Why are so few asking the obvious question: where exactly are the incremental barrels going to come from???"

And that was before Russia attacked Poland; a NATO ally.

Juan, you know I'm a sensitive soul but I'll get over it. There are a lot of kites flying pre Budget. If we're right then it will become increasingly uncomfortable for the opposition because they've become overconfident and quoted numbers that will come back to bite them. The numbers of people subscribing to the petition to cease O&G exploration gets only a fraction of the votes that Matt Han**** or Strictly get. People are not as obsessed by climate change as the media portrays but it is easy virtue signalling (ably assisted by funds and politicians). I think COP27 has been a disaster. It is just another convention now and they invite a few kids along with big social media followings as a pathetic sop to Millenials and Gen Z. My daughter didn't go but is in Thailand reporting on ICFP which is far more important as the world's population passes 8bn. juststopoil is a cult with a tiny following. The $1m from the Getty heiress Aileen Getty, is a nice little earner and that's another potential threat that will send those volunteering for free back to saving kittens in Syria (or whatever they did before).

*can't believe oil is only $95. WW3 might have just started if missiles have been fired at Poland.

I'd signed up to go to a juststopoil evening at SOAS tomorrow and got this just now:
"A Message from SOAS ICOP:
Dear Attendee,
Thank you for your interest in Climate Commitment: Holding the Government to Account on Net-Zero.
Unfortunately, we are having to CANCEL this event. We will be rescheduling a new date. "

Now could it be because of a lack of interest? This suggests it may be: https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=627208

What is really interesting is the number of votes they've received in London. That is one area where they have more or less reached net zero. Maybe stopping ordinary people going about their business isn't such a good idea? I would loved to have attended and had a good heckle.

*I promise I'm not the person who voted in North Enfield.

Today the world's population passed 8 billion according to the UN. At the end of WW1 it was 1 billion. By 2100 it is projected to be 12 billion. I read today that OPEC expects oil demand to rise by 2.24 mbpd in 2023.
With inadequate oil reserve replacement and zero chance of stopping people breeding I cannot see the demand for oil lessening.
I'm sick of Secretary-General António Guterres of the UN attacking climate change when he is failing on most of the original charters of the UN which was to maintain international peace and security, human rights and Promotion of social and ECONOMIC recovery and development. They all like click-bait and prefer headlines to action. He is talking his book and focusing on flavour of the month and is as predictable as Ed Miliband and his 9X cheaper shibboleth.
We may be going to hell in a handcart but there is no replacement of oil on the horizon. Population growth and natural declines make sure of that!