Member Info for romaron

EV have a story about Exxon putting $1bn into its refinery at Fawley to produce diesel. We then have the closure of Grangemouth in Scotland. Confusing. I did like this from a week ago in the Guardian about Grangemouth.

"Labour’s energy and net zero secretary, Ed Miliband, said the plan was “deeply worrying” for Grangemouth staff and their families.

“The UK and Scotland desperately need governments with industrial policies that protect our workers,” he said. “Labour is calling on both governments to get round the table urgently with business, workers, and unions to understand how jobs can be safeguarded for the future.”

Talk about hunt with the hounds and run with the hare. Do politicians have any sense of shame?

Hi Mod - In the UK?

A Delphic message from HBR this morning. In their update there is this:

"We also continue to evaluate a number of material M&A opportunities in line with our stated strategy, as we seek to build a global and diverse oil and gas company. Recent large transactions in our sector and our own discussions with potential counterparties indicate that market conditions for M&A are improving. We remain disciplined, balancing the return of excess capital to shareholders with ensuring flexibility for meaningful, value accretive M&A which would support shareholder returns over the longer run."

I'll show my ignorance. Which large transactions in their sector are they referring to?

I made a protest today - it was spontaneous and I didn't have time to glue myself or throw paint. I had a few minutes to kill and was by Trafalgar Square where juststopoil were inviting people to rise and overthrow our elected leaders on Twitter. I thought I'd got the wrong Trafalgar Square but there was Nelson looking down on me and It was only12:05. I eventually found the 'protest'. There were 3 of them. I was a bit disappointed to tell the truth and one peeled off and engaged with me. The usual garbage about the right to protest and all I said was I agreed but not to break the law. I've been walking the thoroughfares of this country for over 70 years and haven't been arrested once I pointed out. He droned on about secondary legislation and I pointed out he was lucky it was a sunny day or there might have been less than him and his 2 mates present. I pointed out that maybe High Barnet is a better venue as the Bible bashers in the High Street there get a better response than jso, even in the rain, plus it was closer for me to go and throw abuse. His friends asked if I was converting or had seen the light. He had given up on me and told them I was beyond redemption. I enjoyed wasting his time and it used up a few minutes. He did say I should attend this Saturday's event as more will be marching. They really are a joke but are unaware of how silly they come across.

Whatevva - this from Craig this morning;

"Apologies for the delayed response on this. I was on vacation then things have been fairly busy in the lead up to this morning’s operations update, which we see as a positive reinforcement of our operational performance and efforts to delever the balance sheet.

One issue which appears to have gone largely unnoticed by holders is the government’s announcement that the ESIM (dual lock price triggers) will be adjusted by CPI from April 2024. Although unlikely to have any impact on the EPL itself given prevailing prices, this has the potential to help those companies with RBL lending, including EnQuest of course, to see borrowing bases extended, given that lender banks model at very conservative prices.

We did have a representative at the recent Labour visit, but have attended several such meetings with shadow ministers in recent months."

See what I mean about NO news doesn't mean that stuff isn't happening in the background. I especially like the bit about 'shadow ministers'. Labour are jingoistic and pragmatic when jobs are at risk and revenue threatened.

*Out rest of day. The email has lightened my mood. It is what I wanted to hear. Tories are history. Time to work with the incoming administration.

"Was surprised by the Gov fiscal comments but perhaps alludes to something coming down the line."

Or thanking our torturers for not turning the EPL rack another ten per cent.

Who wrote the RNS. Someone from the Tory Party? At least it wasn't 'anomalous'.

AB said that 'running the business into the ground' wasn't an option and 'it doesn't work that way' to a suggestion at an AGM. Well, that is exactly what we are doing. He hadn't allowed for hostile government or opposition.

Still, we're solvent and will be throwing money off shortly. It'll take a few more decades for the removal of all fossil energy from the NS so that's our role. We have a future; its just not exciting or growing.

Here's one for you Stevo. Could the divestment of Bressay by Harbour and Equinor be a kinda bed & breakfast? You have to divest your interest before you can go back in? There is a certain risk in that assets can go up in the meantime but that is slight bearing in mind that Equinor is one of the few (last maybe?) majors left interested in the NS. Harbour same possibly. To facilitate you would have to find a home for the share of Bressay and there are arguments why EnQuest are suitable although it would need future finance/capital. The monies bandied about at the time are small against potential rewards and could be classed as hedges in one sense against a more sensible fiscal approach to an important industry and energy security. So for governance and legal reasons they sell out to EnQuest but all parties know that if the field does get the nod it is unlikely to go ahead without Equinor involvement.

... possibly because the paper was written last Century? However, the science doesn't change that quickly or the physics. There aren't that many fields left in the UKCS and if Labour are to ban exploration it means that heavy oil becomes the likely go-to choice (Hobson's). Apparently the centipoises are more important than the API I was told by Jim Buckee and Bressay seems pretty runny. Harbour and Equinor sold or did they 'park' their interest in Bressay whilst making a point to the UK Government? I'm going back through RNS's and it seems we didn't get one concerning us taking up their share of Bressay. It was reported but basically it seems the pundits got a 'no comment' type of response. Energy Voice said on the 5 April 2023 that "Chief financial officer Jonathan Swinney said there is “tremendous value” in Bressay, even if oil was at $55." Er, he'd been gone a year. Looks like they were scratching around to make it more of a story. I'm pretty sure that the details of the deal are sketchy to say the least. EV also said "A Harbour Energy spokesperson confirmed it exited Bressay in December, but did not elaborate further on the reason behind it.

Equinor has been contacted for comment on the Bressay windfall tax decision."

I'm pretty sure that if you persisted in questioning you might eventually hit the barrier called "commercially sensitive". These guys play the long game so we may be none the wiser in a couple of weeks' time after EnQuest and Harbour's updates.

Whilst we sit in the doldrums waiting for the update I want to refresh my limited knowledge and developments around heavy oil. All comments appreciated.

The economics seem to be the reason Equinor parted with Bressay. This might mean something regarding Rosebank "It is also quite interesting that it is now Equinor taking the lead on the development with partner Ithaca, whilst it was Statoil in 2012 that decided to divest its share in the Rosebank licence to OMV. It is full circle for Equinor for sure, after gaining operatorship in 2019." Conclusion - they aren't completely giving up on the UKCS but might be on HO in the region (cost).

I found this although it means little to me:

Kraken has moderately viscous oil

▪78 – 161 cp API 14

Captain 50-150 cp API 19-21

Mariner Maureen 67cp - Heimdal 508 cp API 14.2

Bressay 540 cp API 12.1 – 14.6

Bentley 1500 cp

Other important points imo is that oil was lifted at Bentley (150,000 barrels from memory) and what is going on with Waldorf's holding in Kraken. That surely is a catalyst for a deal? The silence is deafening but I doubt it signals that nothing is going on in the background.

Not regular referred to 'block listings'.

Innocuous and NO comments here. I understand employee incentive awards so no gripes there but it is the 'timing' that interests me. I looked back through the RNS headings and they aren't regular unless I've missed them. We then had the delay of the OU. Elsewhere there are interesting developments in the market that were (it seems) triggered by the Autumn Statement. Just because there's silence from EnQuest Towers doesn't mean there is nothing happening. Then we had the Swedish shareholder tidying up. The market was officially informed on the 5 September and this bit is interesting - " The formal application for delisting will, however, be submitted to Nasdaq Stockholm no earlier than three months after the market has been informed of the delisting plans through this press release."

Three months takes us to 5 December (or if 12 weeks 28 November).

I'm sure AB and his team can rub their tummy and tap their head at the same time so is anything going on or do I need to increase the tin foil thickness inside my cap?

Thanks for that Dumbly - pretty polite and predictable. I wonder if their members are supportive of the response? There is a built in conflict with the organisation and it may not be fit for purpose.

How can they represent 'clean' energy when outright lies and exaggerations have been the approach of the most likely new government as well as promote oil and gas?. I haven't seen OEUK calling out the misrepresentations and manipulation by the eco-zealots.

They are acting like OGA /NSTA. That isn't their role imo.

Chuck another billion on the fire, would you, I can feel a draft.

Steady Mod - the last labour Govt banned him in 2009 (later rescinded). He comes out with incendiary stuff like this:

"Mohammedanism is a militant and proselytizing faith. No stronger retrograde force exists in the World. It has already spread throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every step ... the civilization of modern Europe might fall, as fell the civilization of ancient Rome."

*Oops, sorry. He was quoting someone else. A chap called Winston Churchill.

I was thinking. I doubt Ed actually does the X postings. Do the same people that run his account also run juststopoil's?

On X.

"Only Labour can bring down bills and make Britain energy independent.

We will close loopholes with a proper windfall tax on oil and gas giants to help tackle the cost of living crisis right now, alongside our plan to make Britain a clean energy superpower so we can cut bills."

Straight from the juststopoil book of rants.

*Er, isn't the energy from the NS independent?

Tell you what must be worrying Labour. The Tories have looted most of the remaining benefit of the North Sea. The Tories can promise continuing licensing but a pretty empty promise if no incentive to actually drill. When Red Ed moves in will he find a note similar to the one the Treasury found in 2010. "I'm afraid to tell you there's no money".

Who will he blame then for sky-high energy bills?

Nice summation AOK. The Grangemouth release was timely; good spot. I liked the way Red Ed jumped to its defence so quickly. A man of flexible principles and short memory. I was thinking about the number of Swedish shareholders mentioned recently. Something like 5/6,000. Using that as a yardstick a wet finger in the air amount for us might be 20,000? My point is that there aren't enough of us spread throughout the investment world invested in the North Sea (or fossil fuels) to worry either party. Our vote is too small.

There was a Channel 4 programme last night. Full of half-truths and suppositions with the obligatory and appearance comment from Tessa Khan described as 'an expert in the field'. They were heaping the blame on the Tories but you can see Labour being in exactly the same position in the near future. Renewables are not living up to their promises but the public are currently enjoying a mild winter. Blah, blah.

The reality is that we're a rag-and-bone man outfit. Engaged in recycling end-of-life assets. The charity shop end of the small cap markets. The assets have a low value and will mostly be sent overseas if of any use. EnQuest Producer. Still in the window.

Fossil fuels isn't a hill the Tories are willing to die for. Whilst the heart monitor hasn't flat-lined they'll plough on but we are the past for them. Labour are getting nervous because the NS is still part of their future spending plans and the transition won't happen in their time scale if all the oil & gas is imported.

1 hour ago:

Telegraph "Green suicide: Scotland’s only oil refinery to shut amid fears of Labour’s North Sea crackdown"

Ed Miliband "This is a deeply worrying development for workers at Grangemouth and for their families. The UK needs a government with industrial policies that protects workers. This must start with getting round the table urgently with business and unions."

No hypocrisy there then.

Hi Stevo - how could 2. work?

Your last sentence. We wouldn't be a seller but presently there seems to be an urgency in getting out of the basin. Might we be one of the few buyers in a sellers market?