Member Info for romaron

I have 2 questions.

1. I am under the impression that shareholder returns will be considered when the net debt to EBITDA ratio is 0.5x (it was 0.7x at end 2022). What is it looking like now? *I accept it may be moot if a deal changes the company set up.

2. Following the RNS today when is the expected day for EnQuest to be quoted in Sweden? *I know we are awaiting an official announcement but has there been any informal indication?

Amusing exchange between VoR and Jeffrey with interesting views. I respect both their views which aren't really that different to mine depending on which side of the bed I get out of. I think the VoR view that we are a 'good earner' even without future new fields is a cornerstone of the company. I also believe we're becoming more important as others drop away. I expect an announcement of an important deal before April but these things can fail at the eleventh hour which means we'd still be in a good place. AB will not be a forced seller. I'm hoping for a dividend next year which should keep Jeffrey away from jumping from a height.

Whilst here. The rabbit hole which led me to the recent Lord Stern speech at HoL in which he said - "Renewables with storage already produce cheaper electricity than fossil fuels" did not get a wide distribution. It has now. It is in the hands of people (not EnQuest) who are more than interested and have clout. These claims need to be challenged. In this world of spin and misinformation there are exponential outlets but the House of Lords is meant to represent something and should aspire to higher standards. Some still care. Do not assume that individual efforts are futile.

Thanks Malu. As another investor has pointed out to me. Now that she has gone over to 'the other side' she has to educate people and justify why buying into a NS O&G company makes sense. Having said that she has worked for ENI in the past. Perhaps there is another transition going on that I haven't allowed for.

Just been corrected by someone who knows how these things work. She would be unlikely to know if something was going on. She isn't an executive. Much is on a need to know basis and likely doesn't affect her. She probably wouldn't agree anyway.

There is usually a moratorium on Director activity in shares if a deal (Merger or Acquisition) is being negotiated and close to success. Doesn't mean they aren't talking but no commitment from either side at present. They're always talking but nothing that involves the whole board. Perhaps they've kept her in the dark. Isn't the board meeting later this week? That's why I titled it "Confused".

The NED buy RNS sent me down a rabbit hole. Karina Litvack appears to be closer to Tessa Khan or juststopoil than a career oil executive. I went to her LinkedIn page and found her promoting Lord Stern the Labour politician who won't be happy until the oil industry is wiped out. https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7131064955046383616/

He is recommending that (as Paris recommends) oil & gas remaining should be left in the ground - not developed

I have no idea what is behind her role and the fact that she has now publicly bought shares in an O&G company?

She shows her independence (or is it agenda?) by publicly agreeing with a public figure who openly wants to see the industry closed a.s.a.p. and has access at top level to the Labour party. I assume she receives a fee from EnQuest. WTF is happening at EnQuest Towers?

*I'm even more depressed by the fact that she can buy shares which indicates there is NO deal imminent.

article today in energy voice. 2024 is expected to have fewer projects receiving regulatory sanction than 2023. i was drawn to this bit:

"the problem is not simply a matter of committing capital, but the wider issue of a diminished hopper of sanction-ready projects. westwood notes that all of this year’s projects submitted environmental impact assessments (eias) to authorities in 2022, leaving a sp**** roster heading into the new year.

“there has been a lack of submissions to date in 2023, with the only eia submitted being for the northern endurance partnership development carbon storage project,” they noted.

“we expect some eia submissions, however if the timeline for review and approval is not improved, we would not expect any new field developments sanctioned in 2024, other than those already submitted,” they cautioned.

it also further on mentions cambo where the license is set to expire on 31 march 2024. i guess it'll be fudged and extended. meanwhile in norway they're getting on with their day job. labour leader keir starmer said there would be no "cliff edge". that is exactly what looks like happening.

did something come out of cop28 we're not aware of? the sector was down across the board today.

They sent 1,411 delegates to COP 28. They were joint third largest with China, after the host nation-UAE with 4,409; and Brazil, 3,081, followed by Indonesia 1,229; Japan 1,067 and Turkey 1,045.

The official delegations of some top countries to COP28 are USA 159; Canada 187; Japan 255; India 725; United Kingdom 75; and European Union 124.

The world is currently going crazy. Ships in a narrow strait to the Red Sea have missiles fired at them and the price of oil drops. Israel uses lessons learned in Warsaw to corral Palestinians. Motorists stranded in Cumbria when we were told that renewables would solve all our problems and to top it all it's COLD. The US have speeded up the buying of oil to replenish the SPR b(4m barrels by Feb instead of summer). You don't do that unless you see oil higher. Eco zealots to sue British government for doing what it was elected to do. BBC to be further weakened because it doesn't provide the 'right' news. Name me a news agency that's better; TikTok or Instagram?

In his dreams. A quick google and I got this https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/usg7052taf87-petrofac-ltd-9-75-21-26

Higher again I guess when the US get stuck in.

I have a new hero. Sultan Al Jaber CEO of Adnoc. Watch the video.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/03/back-into-caves-cop28-president-dismisses-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels

basically politicians and activists expect everyone to agree with them. They should be challenged on facts as they make them. Why is everything "a crisis, desperate, or a disaster". They all seem pretty pleased and comfortable with themselves. Al Jaber is a breath of fresh air.

What stimulated this post was another post on Discord that showed "most sold shares" for November. EnQuest was No. 2. The delisting was announced on September 5 and is ending shortly. On 4 September I have EnQuest at 17.43 and it closed Friday at 13.36 (-23.35%). I don't have the stats to comment (or the desire) on the impact of this only to say that if you work the numbers it is likely that even with hindsight and insider knowledge you wouldn't have made much as a speculator or saved much as a LTH Swedish holder. Did they move from something like 15% of shareholders to 10%? I've no idea. I also measured (roughly) HBR and ITH over the same period (-10% and +2%) so the market wasn't soaring higher during this period.

I think it is beyond doubt that the delisting has had a negative effect on our share price. In the UK we empathise but are also secretly pleased we didn't have to make a decision on our holdings. It is similar (imo) to the capital raises when UK shareholders were asked to contribute. There is time and a small cost involved but I suggest that if I was a Swedish holder I may have lost patience and at a minimum probably reduced my holding. It becomes self-confirming in its direction unless countered by a positive event. Thankfully it is coming to an end and some normality will return.

I don't believe for one moment that it was to save money. I think that governance issues were an impediment to our next move which I expect before April. I will also write to IR and inform them that any attempt to do a capital raise with shareholders would have an even stronger negative impact if they tried it with the remaining shareholders. There is something occurring and the management are quite happy for us to be going down the wrong avenues. They presently don't need the distraction. There is plenty of evidence if you look hard enough.

I can't get in to Euroclear either. Last figure I had was in June and it was 4.36%. I don't follow these statistics regularly because you can never know the true story. For all you know a hedge fund doesn't particularly see EnQuest as a short but it is a short against another oil stock or something else. They're just playing the margin. Then you had the fun & games with Premier and ARCM which was a hedge by them against their bond position in Premier. This isn't the same but who is to say there isn't a smartass playing with the Swedish delisting which is being treated as a divestment. I disagree with Flashcrash. If that is the case I'd expect them to close out days before the deadline. I did speak to Craig in early October and he seemed genuinely surprised at the reaction to closing the Swedish market quote. Personally I think it is to make EnQuest's next move (MorA) easier but he was never going to tell me that.

I did look at our shorts that you get from the FCA https://www.fca.org.uk/search-results?search_term=short%20positions%20daily and we haven't got any above 0.50%. I'm not unduly concerned and the signs are that the Swedish delisting is part of the softness. I doubt there are many stocks we can use as a guide for this. I'm seeing many more encouraging than discouraging signs.

*if you want a death spiral look at juststopoil twitter page. Many are career protestors but I was particularly confused as to the responses/comments that jso get to some of their stunts. More posts are negative and it is amazing the lengths they will go to for abuse. Their following is abysmal in twitter terms (155.1k) and it has hardly moved for months. I wonder how many of their 'followers' are actually supportive or have wandered away? It does of course mean they get a certain amount of attention just because of the abusive responses and maybe that is what they want directed by twitter algorithms. They are an embarrassment to serious activists like Tessa Khan and Dale Vince who have a much bigger investment in impoverishing British industry its people.

Good point Auson. I did misread/misunderstand it - my bad as they say. However the other part of my comment stands - the RB and HYN are telling a different story. Found another note. On 15/09/2020 the old $HYNs were 52.51 and 50.444. I cant remember the interest rate but were repaid Apr 2021. That's a scary yield. We're nowhere near that today.

Thanks for that Papegoja. If accurate and 38% of investors had sold out of a stock you'd say the company was in a death spiral and heading for administration. The bonds would have been sold in a similar percentage. I can remember the RB and HYN's being 30$/p in our darkest days.

My records don't go back that far but on 11/12/2020 the RB was 65.058 and the share price was 11.78.

I promise I haven't been drinking but I think the bots have got this one wrong (and Harbour's).

Harbour are down 3%. I don't think they have an enormous percentage of Swedish investors.

Because that's what eco-zealots are. Of course human's impact their environment but to somehow spin that into a planetary threat towards all life is for fiction and screen writers. The arrogance to think that we have more impact than a volcano or a tsunami is mind-boggling. The Times recently ran a poll for going ahead with Rosebank and it received a 78% approval rating from the British Public. OK, I'll accept that means 22% didn't approve but then I didn't agree with Brexit and I suggest a few Jocks weren't happy with the Independence vote. I actually have a diploma (2012) that says I have completed Level 3 in Green Deal Domestic Advice Training. Full disclosure, I got it massively reduced because take-up was so poor and if people think that Labour are all-in on the Green revolution they are in for a massive disappointment.

The arguments produced by the zealots are quite easily batted away but frankly they are similar to those of religion and are all based on a future event that will NEVER happen. I grew up without a TV, washing-machine, telephone, car, fridge and remember moving at the age of 8 in an open-backed lorry to our new council-house. Things improved from then. I now have 5 toilets, 4 bathrooms and 8 sinks but only 1 kitchen. There's just me and the wife. I think Jevons paradox explains it and all human life. (Zippy: they're building the wrong homes as well in Enfield, 1 and 2 bed flats which actually take up more space and are wasteful but good news if you're a kitchen manufacturer). I think many people in the 3rd world would still be jealous of my childhood.

The money currently being wasted on renewables could help eliminate malaria, bring fresh water nearer and electrify great swathes of remote areas. It could pay for education and E-procurement which is open and torpedoes corruption (*not yet arrived in Enfield). The list goes on of things that actually bring a positive return that can be measured. Fossil fuels followed on from coal and changed the well-being of billions. It isn't all milk and honey but over-population is the result. I don't have the answers but taking us backwards isn't something that gets my vote. I accept a transition to please the minority because I'm a generous guy and can afford it but it isn't proven and the costs that are reaching the public will encourage a backlash. Juststopoil, Roger Hallam, Tessa Khan, Vince Dale etc.. who elected them?

KO - I know the feeling. I have to chuckle though at the reporting from OPEC pundits. They come up with some figures suggesting that the market will be over supplied in Q1 2024.

So they know how much oil will be needed and the level of demand to be correct? They also can predict the geopolitical events that far ahead.

*A first. BBC Question Time last night. No mention of climate when there is a major conference going on. People are moving on and away from the repetitive debate. ITS EXPENSIVE - people know that now. Very hard to promote global warming when it's freezing outside and the coldest November for 13 years. Perhaps we can start calling it weather again rather than climate disaster.

Had a meting with analysts yesterday following their 3Q results. They don't produce peanuts (23,300 boepd) and I picked out a couple of comments from the Energy Voice report:

“We’ve seen there is speculation that we are for sale as such and just to take that first – we are not,” - CEO

They brought Citibank in to review and facilitate discussions with other independents rather than on a one-to-one basis with the independents, This has to include EnQuest because of Kraken.

“I think there’s a willingness to execute some industry consolidation and where our participation will come, if at all, we have no idea at this time… But the market for doing this we’ve seen is improving.”

CFO Aaditya Chintalapati separately reaffirmed the company is “actively looking at opportunities to acquire producing assets in the North Sea.”

Also first day of COP 28. On balance there will be even more negative media because of it but people are becoming more aware of the TRUE costs of renewables and the manumission that fossil fuels bring to the poor.

VoR shouldn't you be working? Re your earlier comment "we need a longer viewpoint". What if we're already halfway there. With your experience you know these deals operate in secrecy and due diligence doesn't happen in message-board time. Could we be in the middle of a deal already? My longer view is April 2024.

And don't forget the HYNs: Prior to November 1, 2024 the Company may redeem all or part of the Notes at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of such Notes redeemed, plus accrued and unpaid interest, if any, to the redemption date, plus a “make-whole” premium, as described under “Description of Notes—Optional redemption.”

Technical but if EnQuest ever get in bed with a higher credit rated party they can pretty quickly bring down the cost of existing debt. It's what M&A is all about.

*current price 94.25 and 94.50 - not available to retail investors. You guys are missing stuff that is hidden in plain sight.