focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Agreed Dumbly. Politics are confusing everything this week and next. On Thursday's Question Time the "climate emergency/crisis" wasn't mentioned once and Caroline Lucas was on the panel. Didn't seem to interest the voters in Rochdale either except for the obligatory incoherent lone shouter at Galloway's celebration who missed with her shower of orange confetti and was ignored by everyone there. She was led away with the crowd chanting "Galloway". She was an embarrassing irrelevance and evidence of the dwindling support jso have.
Https://grid.iamkate.com/
Don't panic. It's only temporary. 18% from our friends (interconnectors) and 7% biomass which is mainly Drax I guess so Let's call it a quarter of our current electricity supply.
Https://brusselssignal.eu/2024/03/icy-blast-of-bankruptcies-loom-for-swedish-wind-power-sector-experts-warn/
I don't know the provenance but if close to fact the numbers are worrying. Perhaps they should move to the UK and collect bigger bungs except their biggest wind company (Vattenfall) is wholly owned by the Swedish state and that could prove embarrassing. Thank goodness they've got hydroelectric. In fact domestically they don't really need gas for electricity as they've got ample hydro and nuclear which means we got their next biggest export, Greta. She couldn't find enough to protest about over there so she moved to us where she was welcomed with open arms.
“But what I can say is that we have consistently been the only major party that has backed the North Sea oil and gas industry.” - says the Chancellor who brought in a windfall tax until December 2025 and upon promotion allowed the new Chancellor to extend it to March 2028. Thanks.
Hi Stevo, it was for the overall UK portfolio. The overall portfolio had Opex @ $36pb. I threw it in because some of you guys can extrapolate information from nuggets like this. My takeaway is that they're small and rely basically on Kraken and Catcher. If they do buy anything they will go to the bond market. I think we have a better economy of scale but there was little possibility of Opex going down with inflation over the past few years imo. net debt was at 0.9X
There are 3 articles to download here. Each very interesting. I particularly liked the one title 'Dangerous Fantasies'. I never realised that to please juststopoil we'll still be able to kill, maim and reduce infrastructure to dust but it will be done in a carbon-friendly way.
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/net-zero-threat-to-national-security
Beware the eights of March
We actually moved up between the 12th and 29th of February. That isn't a bad performance bearing in mind the selling pressure because that is the usual reaction of what is actually a downgrading of value. The selling in what is a thin market should have exacerbated the move down. An optimist might say that a firm base is forming.
I also wonder if others may have used the increased volume this created as a smokescreen to increase or build a stake. Even yesterday the UT is kinda explained away but what are the other large trades following totalling 18m +
We had several days last month where large trades went through post UT. It looks like we might get some stability until the FY results on 28 March. We've also got the budget on the 8th and the Norwegian wind CfD auction on the 18th.
*on another note there was a Waldorf production presentation this morning. I watched because of Kraken. Nothing new except I learned they've got $700m of nominal tax losses and next year they propose capex of $10pb and Opex $40/45pb for 2024.
There was one item that caught my eye but may be minimal. "Loss of production insurance income" expected in Q1 2024. It could refere to Kraken and I wondered if we had any?
Why when I read this "What is the point of the SMMT? It clearly does not represent the interests of motor manufacturers or drivers. Instead it continually obsesses about Net Zero" did I automatically think of OEUK?
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/03/01/smmt-wants-more-subsidies-for-evs/#more-72009
Doubly appreciated CheshireLad. I don't enjoy indexes or trading commentary but you cannot operate in isolation of them. More than happy that you're following them and can give us a heads up. Agree with Modestus and whilst Indexes bring us a little interest they are only reporting what the wider world has done to our stocks. For EnQuest it is mainly Government policy which has caused the damage not the intrinsic nature of our product or our profitability. It hasn't done PFC any favours either. There are close ties (I believe) between PFC and ENQ and nothing would surprise me on future deals.
I think you'll be fine holding PFC just as we'll eventually pull out of this spiral as common sense and reality returns when the voters point out that being uncompetitive is no replacement for virtue signaling. Being colder and poorer whilst somebody with pink hair is allowed to throw pots of paint around and direct government policy is a vote loser.
Be Lucky
I'm kicking myself for missing this on 14 Feb 10:20 by Andre1 where there was a similar MSCI notification:
https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_Feb24_MicroPublicList.pdf
announcing our addition to the Micro Cap Index.
The one posted today by CheshireLad was probably issued the same day and was the other half of the move deleting us from the Small Cap index.
Guesswork here but fairly confident I'm right. These moves start to become obvious the closer we get to the Index reset dates. Obviously it works throughout the system up to major multi billion dollar companies and various indexes. If investors moved in and out on the same day there would be carnage so they announce a date in the near future (in this case 12 Feb for 29 Feb). That means those mandated to move in or out have the option of choosing when to deal or may even be able to keep the stock but it means an internal shuffle to move from one internal index to another. They are kinda bookkeeping entries and like our oil revenues for the year didn't all occur on the 31 December in one day. However, for bookkeeping purposes we get the huge UT which is the impact and total of deals between Feb 12-29.
They won't (or shouldn't) change much but did catch us sleeping a bit.
I'm out tonight so won't follow but this intrigues me. Here's a suggestion. I'm a Global Investment company. I want to increase my stake in a small oil company. One problem is the liquidity and I'd move the price against myself to get anything half-reasonable amount wise. There is a reporting day coming up where a lot of house-keeping occurs and attention is often elsewhere. I short a small amount enough to get reported on FCA shortly before the make-up day. I then trade for large at the fix (UT) where I get an appreciable amount on board.
We'll know tomorrow if I'm right.
KO - who knows. There is another argument. In such a thin market whoever takes a position larger than average will push the price in the same direction. The sector is still unloved and buyers are rarer than hen's teeth.
Politicians don't live in the real world. Whatever one party does the other does the opposite or inflates/deflates. The point scoring at times would embarrass a children's playground. As for the planning plans of Ed Miliband you have to ask if he has learned anything in his lifetime. Lawrence Weston took 7 years (listen at C.11:45) in a committed part of the country where community energy and tipping statues into the river are high priorities https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/796759d3-8020-4081-b2dd-4d3643acf224
*note how charming Barry Gardiner is to fellow climate ideologs compared to his treatment of Linda Cook.
I believe this is relevant. I expect Land Registry to be somehow involved even if only on the periphery. I wrote to LR in July regarding an adverse possession for a small piece of land. As I hadn't heard I did a chaser and was told I'm in the queue with an estimated completion date of 14/01/2025. That's 18 months for something that's fairly routine. Good luck with that Ed. Nothing deters a zealot with belief.
Then there are the local authorities and their army of NIMBY's who have been shown the way by juststopoil. In your dreams Ed.
Bit of a strange one KO. I double-checked our bonds (HYN & RB) and they aren't convertible so nothing to do with the recent HYN buying imo. I wouldn't get too excited as it is tiny in the scheme of things and their black boxes can make the weirdest deals. Is it an out and out short or a short against another sector stock? I'm not gonna worry. Plenty of balls in the air for us to focus on. Budget, YE figures and my favourite the Norwegian gas auction on 18 March. I was talking to people not involved in the markets yesterday and without prompting they were aware of the energy narrative changing and that cheaper bills weren't being pushed so hard. The politics are changing and when was the last time we heard ESG being pushed? We need a few renewable companies to go to the wall. That would require the government reducing or taking away subsidies. I imagine Labour can see the trap but continue to walk further into it. Mystifying.
At end of month our next gas auction starts preliminaries. Without a step change in the renewable capacity procured this year – in AR6 – there are serious risks that the Government will be unable to achieve its target of 50GW of offshore wind by 2030, or its broader goal of a decarbonised power sector by 2035. Reading the timeline it says quaalification will be 20 May but I guess there'll be leaks along the way. Sealed bids in June and any adjustments to budget by gov.
I realise gas and electricity isn't our main line of business but they are conflated and confusing to both me and the public.
Result T-4 v2027/28 Capacity Auction
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/02/28/t-4-2027-28-capacity-auction/#more-71993
"But worst of all was the lack of interest of new build even to bid. Only 322 MW of new build exited the auction, mainly OCGT. This tells us that nobody is now prepared to even consider building CCGTs or other large scale generators. This is hardly surprising, given government threats to shut down all fossil fuel generation!
Of the 42.8 GW contracted, 28.6 GW is gas, begging the question of where our backup capacity will come from in 2030, if Labour win the election. Take away gas, all we are left with essentially are interconnectors:"