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Merry Christmas and a Happy, Healthy and (hopefully) prosperous 2023 to all JOG holders.
I'll stick with my view of 6 Dec. "I believe there is very little chance of a deal before Christmas. ........and the wording of the RNS more or less told us the deal would be in Q1." Would be great to be proved wrong.
Let's hope we haven't got too long to wait.
I think I recall seeing that it was 35.2 million shares including options so for £300m that works out at circa £8.50 per share. I suspect AB wouldn't even think about anything less than £10 per share.
Abatt1 - Yes, AB would need to be convinced and I suspect he'd expect more than £250 - £300m to do that.
Jeremy is in Edinburgh today and will be launching the government’s long-awaited plan to overhaul City rules after Brexit, so in terms of timing it will need to work around that.
I believe there is very little chance of a deal before Christmas. Still no news on a "floor" in the Windfall Tax and the wording of the RNS more or less told us the deal would be in Q1. I'm still holding.
AIMHO
Dick - a number of these blues are actually sells. I think AB's wording is preparing us for farm out news post December thus there is a small element of day trading being undertaken.
Whilst you may be correct, I recall reading some time ago that completion of a deal typically takes from 4-6 weeks after completion of due diligence and sometimes a lot longer. Today was 4 weeks since the end of October when we were advised that the bulk of DD would be completed. Given that the recent announcements on wft would only serve to delay things I think a little more patience is required before becoming despondent.
AIMHO & DYOR.
Introducing a floor would be a sensible move.
Yes, that has crossed my mind.
Agree. The volume of sells don't support this degree of fall in the share price. Probably MM's simply trying to generate a turnover whilst there is no news.
Abatt1 - yes, thankfully everyone seems more relaxed today (myself included). Hopefully, that’s a good sign.
One of the concerns is that there is now no expectation that the tax could be rescinded early if oil and gas prices fall – it is to
stay in place until the 2028 end date. The previous "floor" - $70 - has now been removed.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/we-need-your-plans-for-growth-urgently-business-leaders-tell-pm-lsd7fkz55
Shell looking for changes to Windfall tax to make UK investable.
"David Bunch, Shell’s UK country head, said that after the latest windfall tax on the energy sector, announced by the chancellor last week, the oil major would look for discussions with the government over modifying parts of the tax."
"He cited the need for the tax to reflect the movements, both higher and lower, in oil and gas prices in the markets."
As I understand it the total investment allowance relief remains the same but the access rules have been tightened thus more hoops have to be jumped through to access the full amount.
DYOR
I'm expecting no change on the investment allowance and extending WFT through to 2028.
I'm less certain on the increase. I think there may have been an element of testing reaction by indicating an increase of 10%, so the final decision may be 5 or 10%. Difficult to call.
The Times today are suggesting the EPL will increase to 30% rather than 35%.
Abatt 1 & Bullson, I think this is the paper relating to the investment allowance. It was included in the Finance Act 2015.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investment-allowance-for-oil-and-gas-companies/investment-allowance-for-oil-and-gas-companies
Totally separate legislation to the Windfall Tax. I haven't heard any mention of this so here's hoping..........
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/energy-windfall-tax-a-disaster-for-small-north-sea-producers-h85gb695z
JOG is a BRINDEX member
Given that the majority of Due Diligence was due for completion in October I always believed it would take a few weeks thereafter to complete so didn't really expect anything by the 17th November but we can't wait for ever on this. There is always going to be something or other coming up on the distant horizon. Time to sign on the dotted line.