Member Info for Rokerpark68

Good spot! Thank you!

PSB123,

Good summary of the big things to know. Thanks.

All I would add on StemPrintER is that I understand from H&C Wainwright's 29 May note that Oncotype DX produced $300 million of revenue in 2018, so was already a well-established and cash-generative product when EXACT effectively bought it for $2.8 million. In contrast, although StemPrintER appears to be a much better quality product, it is some way away from final validation, commercialisation and revenue generation, which is no doubt why the H&C Wainwright analyst estimated that StemPrint ER might be worth 10% of what EXACT paid for Oncotype DX. He could have said 5% or he could have said 15%. The fact is, the market still doesn't really know what this asset is worth, although what we can say on the available data is that it sounds very promising, which is one of the reasons I am heavily invested in TILS. But there may be a bit of patience required around Accustem once its listing goes live later this year, so we will just have to see what other data/analysis emerges before then. Best of all I would like to see big pharma wade in and take StemPrintER out at a crazy price (whatever that is) before then, but the product may need a period of further development within Accustem before the board can maximise its value.

I think the lack of any real clarity around what StemPrintER is worth at the moment is one of the many different things which has held back the TILS share price in recent weeks. I think some people thought that once the demerger was announced the TILS shares would really fly again - it's certainly a step in the right direction but what we really need now is a consensus to emerge around a very attractive valuation for StemPrintER. This will need to be based on new analysis, which I hope the research houses are working on. That would obviously change everything to the good before the Accustem listing.

Whimax - very interesting digging on the shorts etc - thank you and the other contributors who have thrown more light in this.

This happens in certain situations. Just a fact of life. That's why I never comment on short term share price movements. There is so much going on under the radar all you can do as a PI is focus on the underlying quality of the investment - this always outs in the end.

Whimax, Stims - I agree that anything could happen before the Accustem listing goes live. It just depends what is offered to the board. Who knows what that may be? The approaching listing may flush buyers for StemPrinterER out once and for all.

Smart board and advisers. Doing the right things to drive out what value there is, with everything underpinned financially for two years by that excellent fund-raising. Really enjoying watching how they are operating.

TILS's shareholders at the record date for the demerger will qualify for 1 Accustem share for every 1 share they hold in TILS. The shareholder circular on the demerger available in the Rule 26 section of TILS's website explains the mechanics of this. The Accustem shares will be a dividend in specie I.e. an asset not cash. They will ultimately have a standard listing on the LSE. There is no pre-determined price for the shares. They will find their own price. However, if the board decide to raise new cash for Accustem at the time of the listing they would have set a price for new shares issued to investors. Then the in specie shares would also have some price transparency. But there is nothing I can see in the circular about new funding for Accustem.

Following on from my post about StemPrintER's valuation yesterday evening I think the key driver in the TILS share price in the short term has to be the valuation of StemPrintER. But this is something the market has no real take on, because unless you are at the heart of the industry it is very difficult to form a view on what StemPRintER is really worth to relevant big pharma as things stand today. Price discovery is really hard from the outside.

The reason I still think TILS Is a buy, however, is that two institutional investors have recently made significant investments which they would not have done without, in the first instance, confidence in StemPrintER's valuation. So I think they believe StemPrintER de-risks and gives them a free ride on the rest of TILS's product portfolio over the next two years.

But I myself don't know what the combined value of TILS and Accustem will be post demerger - we have a valuation vacuum just now. That creates uncertainty. Hopefully the vacuum will be filled over the next few weeks with some credible publicly available analysis.

https://www.meetmax.com/sched/event_61861/__agenda_cp.html
Whimax - looks like the company may have presented st the first day of HCW's annual conference event.

Great to see the announcement finally come through this morning regarding the timing of the proposed demerger of StemPrintER into a new listed vehicle, Accustem Sciences Limited. It's good to know for sure that this is the route the board has decided to go.

Now it's going to be fascinating to see how the market feels its way to a valuation of Accustem Sciences Limited when its listing goes live. Apart from HC Wainwright & Co's 29 May analyst report, I don't think I have seen any other attempts to put a value on the StemPrintER product. As we know that report took 10% of the $2.8 billion price paid for Genomic Health (Oncotype DX) by EXACT as an initial estimate.

Hopefully HC Wainwright & Co, or another research house, will be producing a more comprehensive valuation indication over the next few weeks which will give the market more to chew on.

If StemPrintER is indeed a really valuable asset the board have done exactly the right thing by separating it out and allowing it to be valued on a stand-alone basis.

Get your cash flow forecasts and discount rates at the ready and let the valuation discussion begin!

Happyish - once a board knows that a material transaction is likely to occur i.e. terms have been agreed and a significant asset disposal is a realistic possibility, then it would probably need to make an announcement. The other reason a board would have to say something is if there were strong market rumours or a leak. All down to the advisers to advise.

Indeed. There are lots of permutations.

Happyish - based on my past experience a lot will depend on whether TILS's financial advisers have got a comprehensive seller's pack ready and the process is well-organised. Assuming that's the case, then if they all go at a gallop I would expect up to four weeks due diligence then another four weeks to finalise negotiations and document the deal. May be tight but doable, especially if the funding package for the purchase is straightforward i.e. corporate cash. If there a number of parties interested they will try and run them on the same timeline initially in the first few weeks then they will need to give one party exclusivity. All these deals are different, however, and new events can impact even the best run processes. Also, these processes are always more complex when the seller is listed because you have regulatory complexity around making information available to third parties.
Those would be my generic observations.

Thank you. That's very kind of you. I have only just started posting so that's very encouraging.

Absolutely, why would you sell out now just as the company reaches a potentially major inflexion point?

Well, we'll all find out soon enough and then the market will decide where to take the share price(s).

Happyish - yes, I think your comment that the board has effectively been "gagged" on the demerger by new events is quite possible, but I don't know. It is strange that a board that is usually keen on announcing what it has had for its breakfast has gone quiet on this key issue. Makes me think (hope) that they are not to blame for their silence.

Still they raised a net of $57m for about 10% of the company - sounds good to me as a current shareholder. Also Altium Capital Management, who took half of it, will be natural medium-term holders - right up their street.

That's very plausible.

Happyish - as I said yesterday evening I totally agree that the board's handling of the StemPrintER newsflow on the face of it has been disappointing - I just think taken in the round they are performing well, even if that's not a very popular thing to say!

For anyone who is interested I have just been looking at the SEC Form 424B5 which TILS filed for the $57m fund-raising. Some good detail on the proposed use of proceeds and how much is going to be required over the next few 12 months or so for the development of each of the company's existing products. There are some chunky amounts there adding up to $29m - very exciting indeed. Also of course there is the $6m a year opex run rate to fund, so I think the board definitely did the right thing to raise more rather than less at the start of August. Take it when you can is what I would say. This has really underwritten the company's growth plans.
The document is on the TILS website - lots of interesting information in it if you fancy a read amidst all this afternoon's share price excitement.

I rate this company too. The management appear to be very focused. The annual report is an impressive read, especially the CEO's commentary.
Been a holder for a few months now . Bought in the mid-40s and suffered for a few weeks as the price came off, but I think the strategy is good and the Chairman knows the industry inside out.
Lots to look forward to I think.