Hi all,
My only comment just now is that it has gone up and it is going up.
What a good few days.
Hi again Troy
Yes as I have said before at least more broker comment would create additional initial market guidance before the demerger. Just relying on one analyst at H&C Wainwright is a bit thin IMO.
Hi Greend100
I hope you are right about this whole demerger process being a clever bridge to a corporate disposal - I'd rather they got a lot of cash now for StemPrintER, gave us it, then focused on their therapeutic portfolio.
Keeps it simpler and reduces execution risk.
Troy
The circular says the value of the shares will be determined by the market - I refer to the relevant section of the circular in a previous post a week or so ago.
My understanding is this is not an IPO where there will be a float price. It's an Admission - there is currently no public offering of existing or new shares to new holders. Just existing TILS shareholders get stock dividended in specie which are then (eventually) admitted to the LSE.
The circular is a very informative document.
DYOR - I could be wrong of course.
Morning SK39,
You know I am a bull of TILS and have a meaty holding, so I have no interest in being negative about this stock. However, if you want some possible reasons for SP softness apart from short-selling they could include:
- unavoidable uncertainty regarding the valuation of StemPrintER / Accustem until Accustem ACTUALLY lists in Q4 - we won't know the market value of the spin-off and the remaining TILS business until Accustem starts to trade
- uncertainty regarding the ACTUAL final timing of the listing of Accustem during Q4 and precisely when investors will receive tradeable liquid Accustem stock. Is it going to take up to two months from the demerger as the shareholder circular makes provision for? Personally I'd like my Accustem listed stock sooner than that if at all possible.
So there is quite a bit of process to go through over the next couple of months before we get full actual MARKET price discovery on Accustem and post-merger TILS. Some investors won't either like or understand that fact - so I guess that's still possibly fertile ground for shorters and market makers looking to accumulate stock for larger clients.
Cheers
-
SK39 - interesting answer from you, thank you. Impressed by the way you are backing your industry knowledge and assessment of senior managers/owners. I wish I had your sector insight -it would give me more confidence in my own ability to evaluate TILS. Through my career I was always a generalist so never specialised in any particular areas. I do dabble in listed fund managers, however, given I worked for them for so long. I love their operational gearing and know all the different houses well.
It's reassuring to read that you are so convinced by the TILS portfolio. If the products are really so good then I guess we are down to execution risk given that we have the product quality and financial stability boxes ticked. I take great comfort in the fact these guys have done similar things before. They seem very credible.
Your deeper sector knowledge makes you much more of a conviction investor than me in TILS. I will be taking profits all the way up once this takes off again, no doubt leaving return on the table and missing out on the top, but ensuring I bag a good blended return.
And yes, the shorters are a pain but they are just smart investors taking advantage of a short-term opportunity. Eventually they will be squeezed out by the underlying value. They know it and will be ready to go soon enough.
I have no idea where the share price is ultimately heading ie how high it could go and when. However, we used to have a running joke on the last desk I worked on before retiring about stocks or funds we liked. If we thought something was really good we wouldn't try and call future price rises, we just used to say "it's going-up" and buy it. The thinking would be then be focused all around crystallising returns at sensible levels to lock-in our own performance.
TILS is "going-up".
Hi SK39
I've got quite a few of these now - many more than I would usually have a for a high vol single line like this....so what would you accept if a third party came in and made an offer for the whole of TILS tomorrow? I always ask myself this question when I have a worthwhile position - i.e. what would I take tomorrow for the risks I am facing today?
SOS
Tendulkar had a season at playing for Yorkshire when he was 17. People who saw him knew he was world class even then. Saw him take Fred Flintoff to pieces at Headingley one evening at Headingley about 15 years ago. Effortless genius.
Hi SOS
How about this for more SA cricket nostalgia.
When the SA tour to England was scrapped in 1970 because of the Dolly dispute England played a 5 "Test" series against the Rest of the World. My dad took me to the Headingley game because he wanted me to see Graeme Pollock bat. I think he got 8....disappointing.
But then when England batted Eddie Barlow got a hat-trick with his trundlers - and he got three Yorkshiremen - Chris Old, Don Wilson and Geoff Cope, all of whom I played against when they were past it. Chris Old was an absolutely superb bowler. His brother Alan was fly-half for England and went on the Lions tour of SA in 1974, but that second-rater Phil Bennett kept him out of the Test team.
SOS - I always buy Nissans to support the plant in Sunderland (genuinely).
If TILS comes off I might buy one for each of my lads.
Oh and by the way, everyone should stop worrying about the TILS share price. It's a great risk / reward dynamic and I would be surprised (and a bit poorer) if it didn't come very good at some point. Not sure exactly when, but I gave up trying to time things in the market about 20 years ago.
Hi Shirazkhan39
Cricket is my favourite game so for the benefit of this BB don't get me started on it. I am a Yorkshireman by birth and upbringing and love my cricket.
Saw Geoffrey Boycott's 100th hundred at Headingley live in 1977 v Australia. What a day.
Sorry bit not but
Hi SOS,
Thank you. That made me smile!
The old saying that rugby is a thug's game for gentlemen and football is a gentleman's game for thugs was very true for many years until rugby union went professional. You have to agree it has changed hugely in the last 25 years and that levels of sportsmanship are inevitably not what they were.
But like shorting and algorithms becoming prevalent in the investment management industry.....
SOS - which rugby club do you follow? I really enjoy rugby but never had the chance to play it, unlike my three much posher sons.
I was delighted to have got my late Uncle Oswald a mention.
Good evening Greend100,
Personally I'm not expecting the Accustem listing admission document to emerge before the vote on the demerger, although if they do manage to get something out over the next few days that would be helpful.
I think the board will believe that the circular contains all the information that shareholders need to vote on the demerger eg the science, the strong data, the strategic rationale for going stand-alone and the risk analysis. The board are recommending the demerger to shareholders on the basis of the information in the circular so I don't think there will be much more info before the vote. Hopefully I am being pessimistic.
My gut feel is that they may be slightly off the pace with the listing process and that they are just focusing on just getting the demerger approved at this point. They talk about listing occurring "later" in Q4. Could be interpreted as wiggle room.
Old apache. That's wonderful. How are his knees these days?
Billy Hughes's (RIP) great nephew mended my Sky dish just before Billy died a few months ago. He sent him a photo on his phone of my framed photo and an old programme with him on the cover from 1971. Very emotional.
Bob Stokoe picked him and David Young up from the Mags for peanuts. Genius from Stokoe. Would have made a great non-exec on the TILS board!
Hi Y-Alam
Yes the board have had time to create more consensus. But now they have to try harder.
Could be well into Q4 before the listing goes live as per the Circular - they need to find a credible way to fill the Accustem valuation vacuum with their advisers/brokers etc quickly.