Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
Am up to date on the convo re order of sign offs.
As you know I’ve been told AK’s preferred way would be to come back with everything signed except SH approval. Now as we know the usual way is similar to what we have done before and the way Afrenta announced today. Ie issue Ad Doc / re-list, then SH approval and finally Gov sign-off. Doing it this way stops any Gov embarrassment with this having to give the final nod. The last thing they would want to do is approve only for SH’s to vote it down at a later date.
So why could we do it in a different way with Gov approval announced at AD Doc / re-lis time and SH approval to follow 2/3 weeks later and the Gov be comfortable with this?
Well with 64% of shares held by BOD / II’s we could provide letters of intent that 64% would agree and hence approve.
Additionally SS may want it done before Energy Week to REALLY prove that they are open for business.
WOW TiL - I like that read. And can you imagine how powerful it would be to be talking at conference in October if SS was closed at end of September? The renewable stuff and Nigeria stuff reads extremely well and could not sound better. Really looking forward to 29/9 now to read the H1 report and whatever we get told about the SS deal.
Financial IR and company IR are very close to II’s and we have their full backing for the SS RTO deal fro Petronas.
Z - I find it very strange that you even pose that question. In the picture you paint, what do you think would happen to the SP if they voted “yes” and what do you think would happen to the SP if they voted “no”?
I can’t really see the II’s being akin to Turkeys voting for Christmas!
TiL - I commented on the lack of material news and RNS’ with regards other areas of the business while we have been suspended. Specifically, I said that I am surprised that we have not heard more about incremental growth to existing gas contracts along with new gas contracts. I also commented that with only 4 months left of the year, I’m also surprised that we have not seen another SPA for “at least one more” hydrocarbon acquisition which we are hoping to complete by the end of 2023. Whilst I can not remember the comments back work for word the reply was something along these lines:-
“AK is working harder than ever but until things are RNS’d he obviously keeps things very close to his chest and there are very few people in the business who know exactly what’s going on. However, as the SPA for Petronas SS deal was issued in December 2022, and we knew that AK has been working on bringing in at least one more deal, we are assuming that something will be very well worked up and could be announced at any time. With regards additional gas sales, for new and existing companies, although we have nothing concrete to go on (and it would have to be RNS’d first anyway) we are hearing rumours that things are going very well on multiple fronts”
After the reply, the only point I discussed further was to ask if we could see a new SPA RNS prior to Ad Doc and relist or whether we would have to wait until SS completes due to the very complex RTO rules. I id not get a clear answer here, but my interpretation of what was said is that we would not see another SPA RNS until we are back trading, with or without SS. I could be wrong here though and i think there is a low probability that we could see a SPA while still suspended.
Hope this helps.
Surely we could not have more bad luck and Tinubu loses this.
The ruling to determine the winner of the 25 February presidential election in Nigeria is under way in Abuja.
The court will decide on the petitions brought before it by opposition candidates of the People’s Democratic Party, the Labour Party and the Allied People’s Movement seeking to overturn the declaration of President Bola Tinubu as the winner of the election.
Expectations of the ruling have sparked tension across the country following the the deeply polarising election.
In the capital, large number of soldiers and police personnel have mounted road blocks at strategic locations within the city centre and the surrounding communities. There appear to be fears the judgement could trigger protests, depending on who loses out today.
The proceedings are being televised live in order to be fully transparent, the court said - though it did decline to allow live broadcasts during the hearing stages when lawyers made their presentations.
K - sorry I missed of the NOT
The LAST thing AK would want to do is comeback without SS Gov full approval, especially after the Chad fiasco.
AK is desperate to come back with all I’s dotted and T’s crossed and just then seeking shareholder rubber stamp.
Manic day so I'll be very brief after quite a long call chewing the cud:-
South Sudan
AK still in SS and been thee most of the summer
Working flat out to complete by end Sept and company still hopeful it will be done by then
I don't know if have Gov approval but could not be told anyway
NOMAD will decide on further extn if not completed by end Sept but AK will def want to comeback without ALL approvals inc Gov consent
I think if not fully completed we will see further extn until everything completed apart from shareholder approval
Chad / Cameroon
ICC case ongoing but I get impression maybe longer than initial guiadance
The recent court win in favour of SAVE re board appointments being overturned is a VERY positive indicator
Very recent Citibank case to early to comment
Still looking to sell 10% of COTCO for $44.9m but proving difficult to make progress. SAVE very keen to liquify the 10% cash here
Niger
Strange as it may sound, I don't think our operations or the completion of the Chinese $4bn pipeline have been badly affected by curring situation
Renewable prijects likely to be progressing as not run from in country
Nigeria
All going very well and I do think we will see new custmer/s and contract extensions and or contracts increased by volumes
I forgat to ask about debt re-financing - must try hrder!!!
At least 1 more inorganic deal this year
AK obviouly keeps cards very close to chest but "as SS was announced last December we would be extremly surprised if AK has not got at least 1 deal very well worked up and ready to announce seeon after Ad Doc
So all in all nothing earthshattering but good to have the call again and agreet to catch up again post end Sept
Summary - EVERYTHING dependent on a successfil SS closure and the company are still working extremely hard and hopeful it will happen by 29/9/2023
Time will tell...
Is now at 10.00am tomorrow. I’ll update here if anything of interest arises. Although as we all know, nothing material can or will be mentioned but i always think it’s good to keep the channel of comms open for a regular discussion and Q&A.
Just had tie to skim read the full note from this morning and the change in guidance in this RNS compacted to previous guidance makes very positive reading. Bullet pointed below:-
Royalty rate down 1%
Operating & transport cost down $0.5 per boe
Net operating income up $15m
EBITDA up $13m
CAPEX flat
Dividend flat
These are very positive metric change and with a strengthening POO and hopefully strengthening AECO pricing as we close out 2023, I thin we could see a nice little rise to the SP. We need to get the capital restructure put to bed now and have Q3 dividend signed off. Hopefully we have been working on a bit of M&A inorganic growth and maybe see an announcement in 2H and with POO strengthening, I hope we are working on quite an aggressive drilling program for 2024.
With our quality acreage and over 500 drill ready locations, I’d like to see us sell part of our assets or bring in a big partner for a free carry. If we go it alone, we are not making a dent in the opportunity we have if we only drill circa 20 gross wells per annum.
Very happy with my investment here and am holding tight to what I have.
MS has always said aquire when commodity prices low and drill when high. In todays RNS he said “ Price volatility has also resulted in potential opportunities for growth via M&A”. Is it possible that they are working on a M&A deal that hey started when WTI was sub $70 and agreed an economic interest date from that time. that’s how these kinds of things tend to work and hopefully we will see news on the M&A from ASAP. Am a bigger fan of M&A, so long as no dilution. Compared to buyback or increased dividends at this stage of the business development. I would still like to dump Serenity though and move HQ to Canada and significantly cut our G&A costs.
With our conservative reservoir managent approach i am hoping that well decline rates are not too onerous. As we bold on new wells at hopefully IPR’s of 300 to 500boepd, could anybody kindly let me know any ballpark figures that we should work on for current well decline rates?
I know it’s only crumbs but we could possibly see a tick up today. Interesting little battle between WA’s selling and PI’s buying.
Got enough dry powder for an additional 100k but when to push the button? Decisions decisions.
Zengas - as you know in my eyes you are the misted highly respected poster of all. But how would you feel about any possible deal completing in Gabon if we had signed an SPA a few days ago? With these very high value deals, and I call them ‘spray and prey deals’, surely we can only try so many times before we seriously need to review the strategy. What looks like a good deal today can turn in to a nightmare deal tomorrow in Africa.
Your posts are absolutely amazing but with your vast knowledge, I’d like to see a bit more on your views of risk in addition to the few caveats you always include. Absolutely, I will be ex tactic if SS concludes successfully but after Chad and now Niger, more and more pressure is building on closing this deal. Should it fail, what next? We could well find ourselves in another RTO situation and back to back suspension, leading to another 6 to 12 months on no dealing on the share. While there is so much unrest in the continent shareholders need to be able to buy or sell their shares for a decent window of time.
Agreed Accugas is the jewel in the crown but until we close something else, we are still really a 1 trick pony + a bit from Cotco. We can not keep spending $15-$20m on risky transactions if SS fails. AK is making a killing here with his huge salary, buying equity at 19.35p (when we were not allowed) and is it him who has the option of 100m shares at 23p.
As I’’ve said before and I know Rome was not built in a day, we floated 9 years ago at 56p and at the moment, we are sitting with a flaky suspended share price of 26p.
It’s great that AK wants to change the whole power model in Africa, improve GDP, increase life expectancy etc etc etc, but at some point he needs to realise that people and companies far far bigger than him have tried to do this for decades with minimal success.
Yes you and others can shoot me down but my spreadsheet shows me MASSIVE profits on some of the forecasted projections of SP but it also shows me a very bad number should tings not go in our favour.
Ready, steady go - take aim and fire at me guys, I have very broad shoulders!
Either Nigeria or begin diversifying from Africa. Yes it would be a huge strategic decision but there is no way all this unrest in Africa is going away anytime soon and will probably get a lot worse before it gets better. As we are (or at least seem to be) struggling to get Government approval in stable jurisdictions, I seriously think it might be time to be looking at assets in other continents.
The post below is from EagleHasLanded from over in the other place. I think it’s a half decent reply from Joe but some of the item lines he mentions may be small numbers in the overall scheme of things. I’d like to see the management and consultant bonuses broken down. IMVHO consultants charge very high fees already so I personally don’t think they should get bonuses, they should just get paid for what they do! Mates????????
These are all around Cameroon, hope one does not happen there or more importantly in Nigeria or South Sudan.
Gabon: Army officers say they are taking power https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-66654965