Member Info for Rockonuk01

The net debt is a massive positive swing from -£147 mto +£28m now cash rich hence divi and share buy back

this share is a ****ing joke down from circa £23 a share to this ****

Omicron didn't originate in SA it was the first country to flag it , Loads of countries had it but didn't go public because of the backlash!!!!!!!!!

This crypto is ****ing ****

c500 have died from vaccine in this country and that is the reported figure how many unreported i've had jabs and since them have had several muscle spasms and burn spikes below the skin for a second or too!!!

Conspiracy theory : discuss.... new variant which was know years ago released again by Vaccine producers to cash in...discuss!

Conspiracy theory : discuss.... new variant which was know years ago released again by Vaccine producers to cash in...discuss!

The Gp who discovered this on the 17thNOVEMBER !!! said guy had no symptoms other than fatigue and head ache no loss of smell or cough or taste and intimated that there appeared to be an over reaction in the international community as the cases were mild also i have had the same symptoms back in March 2020 it has been and gone IMOA i'v e had it March 2020 extrem fatigue and headache for three days and nothing else,

The Gp who discovered this on the 17thNOVEMBER !!! said guy had no symptoms other than fatigue and head ache no loss of smell or cough or taste and intimated that there appeared to be an over reaction in the international community as the cases were mild also i have had the same symptoms back in March 2020 it has been and gone IMOA i'v e had it March 2020 extrem fatigue and headache for three days and nothing else,

The Gp who discovered this on the 17thNOVEMBER !!! said guy had no symptoms other than fatigue and head ache no loss of smell or cough or taste and intimated that there appeared to be an over reaction in the international community as the cases were mild also i have had the same symptoms back in March 2020 it has been and gone IMOA i'v e had it March 2020 extrem fatigue and headache for three days and nothing else,

Hadn t got the balls to buy the dip to 120 this morning sae it but got the shakes.lol

Brokers in USA are now advising their clients to buy Ftse

I think all on here have stories of selling too early or too late, always a difficult call which has an element of uncertainity attached to it

89.2%

im buying more today as i see it getting to £18 in next week or two

why would a director yesterday buy 30k shares at £1.95 if SP going south?

Defo take over target now, called it friday..shame another good British company!

a buy recommendation in sunday times

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Avon Protection.

LSE:AVON Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 7 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 5.7%
Perpetual Growth Rate 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 0.9%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for LSE:AVON
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 5-Year Average of GB Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 0.9%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 4.9%
Aerospace & Defense Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.88
Re-levered Beta = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 0.881) * (1 + (1 - 19.0%) (11.54%))] 0.975
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 0.975
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 0.90% + (0.975 * 4.89%) 5.67%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for LSE:AVON using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Avon Protection is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

LSE:AVON DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 5.67%)
2022 32.03 Analyst x4 30.31
2023 36.49 Analyst x4 32.68
2024 39.64 Est @ 8.65% 33.6
2025 42.15 Est @ 6.32% 33.8
2026 44.13 Est @ 4.7% 33.49
2027 45.7 Est @ 3.56% 32.82
2028 46.96 Est @ 2.76% 31.92
2029 47.99 Est @ 2.2% 30.87
2030 48.86 Est @ 1.81% 29.75
2031 49.61 Est @ 1.54% 28.58
Present value of next 10 years cash flows $317
LSE:AVON DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $49.615 x (1 + 0.90%) ÷ (5.67% - 0.90% ) $1,049.52
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
$1,050 ÷ (1 + 5.67%)10 $604.61
LSE:AVON Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $317 + $605 $921.61
Equity Value per Share
(USD) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $922 / 31 $30.03
LSE:AVON Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Exchange Rate USD/GBP
(Reporting currency to currency of LSE:AVON) 0.746
Value per Share
(GBP) = Value per Share in USD x Exchange Rate (USD / GBP)
= $30.03 x 0.75 £22.39
Value per share (GBP) From above. £22.39
Current discount Discount to share price of £9.28
= (£22.39 - £9.28) / £22.39 58.6%

Simply wall street have reviced thier view on fair value using DCF i think and it is c£22.39