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Greener, I’d stop sort of saying I’m informed, but the way I see it, is that to create a hub or go back into buchan is complex, expensive and time consuming (billions of £, massive risk and integration). Jog haven’t operated *anything*, let alone complex, expensive or time consuming (they’ve done a good job on the farmout with the later). Hopefully the Ithaca guys have brought some reason and told them, you ain’t BP, Shell or Total (so forget doing what BP figured wasn’t feasible), but if we can get 200m from a farm out, we can stick an FPSO on top, or drill verbier and tie back with a pipeline to existing infrastructure and get some oil in our life time ( 2 or 3 years time). That’s how I see it, time will tell. Off to the moon.
Rest easy tomorrow morning Abatt, the sun will rise, but the JOG SP won’t, at least not to the £5,8,14,43 we hope for on a deal. I tell you, this is running till the end of the quarter, AB has given up on the hub and is now going for a cheap and cheerful tie back…good news is he won’t need a billion that he would have needed for his hub. This **** usually goes down on a Thursday, but think end of March rather than end of Jan or Feb. Hold in there.
Well stumbled on this beauty at the weekend and bought in at 475 this morning. Looks like a proper falling knife, but the revenue and normal profit figures look fair value (cheap for the sector?). If they can get F1 manager right, massive grown potential with F1 leaning heavily into the USA . GLA
Yeah amazing they get away with it, highly questionable integrity of the ceo. Masters of f corporate finance. I bought in at 27 and averaged down to 16p, ended up owning about 0.5% of the company, so sold up today at 29p (didn’t quite trust them to hold for 30p). A sweet return in the end, but agree there is far more value in the company that £15m. So where next?
Undertaking my market research at the weekend, I notice AB liked an article on LinkedIn about flogging a dead horse. I can imagine that’s what theyve been doing chasing a hub instead of a tie back, he’d be one sick little pup (or just another AIM oil co ceo) to like something like that if he don’t have a deal up his sleave, dyor (on fintwit & LinkedIn obvs). I see James Simon has been buying again today, nice rally. Off to the moon.
It’s been there for well over six months, used to have coffees nearby last summer and kept an eye out for AB. It was pretty quite. Will be a place of work for the Ithaca guys, they are Scottish. Also keep an eye out for AB at the Repsol office when I go for my Pizza on Holborn Road. This time Rodney!
Good luck Dick, your best post yet! I too threw caution to the wind with a foolishly large purchase just before Xmas (sorry to disappoint Chessman, I was the fool). Alas not quite as hopeful as dick at getting out with a sale, can see this hitting 50p with some corporate finance magician taking us PI’s out for nowt…as AB says ‘certainly’ and as the kids say…YOLO. GLA
I’m not an accountant but tried to figure out what was going on with the cancellation of the share premium, my guess was Mayfair partners loaded the company with 40 mil debt to buy the original owner out, they then pay that debt back issuing shares at ipo, cancelling the debt creates the excess in the share premium account which has to be paid back (or cleared) before shareholders can get a payout? Would be nice for a finance bod to have a look. This drops because nobody buys retailers heading into a recession (apart from desperado’s like us), there are no buys so every sell moves the price down. But I honestly think they are setting themselves up for a good run, they got credible staff coming onboard, clearing the decks for when the tide turns. May 2020 French connection had a market cap of 4 million, 6 months later it had 5 bagged before a sale, same deal here but I think this is a better business and will actually start turning a profit. Not for widows.
I’m with you Margaret, looks very cheap and well positioned for a turn around. Only thing that worries me is the motives of Bertie from Mayfair partners, he clearly pulled a fast one with the IPO. Can someone explain the £40 million capital reduction, how that works and what it means?
Some fall, looks like admin costs are killing em. Would be nice to see som DD’s here.
50 to 100p in 3 years on the LTIP, very doable I expect, see if I can top up at 17 :)
Like the look of this. I see production in 2020 was 5000 million barrels, but only 3700 million barrels in 2021, anyone know why this is the case? Did they lose a well or is production falling off a cliff?
Looking through the IPO docs, Bertie Mayfair is doing ok for himself, lends the company 45 million to acquire itself, then IPO’s to get back his 45,nice business if you know how to do it. Interesting to see the LTIP vest at 13M EBITDA, they’ve got some work to do to hit that. The SP crash in feb looks like a massive over reaction to the trading update on the 23rd? Institutional investors continuing to offload? Is the HSBC debt 6 or 12 million? I read 12 in the IPO docs…why leave the company with debt after the IPO? From my limited understanding, I really like the look of it, reminds me of grabbing French connect at 4p in Covid 2020, just a case of trusting slick Bernie Mayfair?!
Anyone know if Lee Williams is any good? French Connection and ASOS haven’t exactly had a wonderful couple of years? Looks like if they can get through transitory issues there is decent upside here, can’t see any gorillas in the company report or balance sheet. My 19k buy went through as a sell, maybe MM’s have a lot of stock to offload at the mo.