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Part 4
To the extend Russia’s concessions are sincere, they are fruits of military setbacks and economic devastation. Any plausible peace agreement would be a tacit admission of Russian defeat. Putin’s invasion may succeed in ending Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership and the EU. Ands it may secure Kyiv’s formal commitment to neutrality in any future conflict between Russia and the West. But it had already consolidated the Anti Russian turn in Ukraine’s domestic politics, strengthened the EU and NATO, weakened Russia economically, diplomatically and militarily. Any peace that leaves Ukraine’s sovereignty and military even partially intact will represent the utter defeat of Putin’s ambitions for a Russian sphere of influence south form Moscow all the way to the Black Sea
Such settlement will be possible only if Putin believes victory is not. Ukraine has evidently shaken Moscow’s faith in the latter possibility. If nothing revives the Kremlins hopes in the coming weeks, Putin might just give peace a chance
Long read - but some interesting opinions
GLA
Part 3
Since the survey was taken, the RUSSIAN SHELLING OF Ukrainian cities and the slaughter of civilians have dramatically increased, even as the Ukrainian military has held up better than expected against attempted Russian advances toward Kyiv. It is possible that these developments would have rendered Ukrainians even less amenable to large concessions.
Yet the two sides might have found a way around the impasse. In an interview with the FT , Podolyak said Ukraine and Russia are currently negotiating over a guarantee withdrawal from the territories that have been occupied since the start of the military operation on Feb 24th. This would facilitate an end to Russia’s broader invasion of Ukraine without requiring either side to formally surrender in the border disputes that have been raging since 2014.
The single biggest question looming over the talks, however, is Moscow’s sincerity. Even as Russian and Ukrainian officials made steady progress at the negotiating table this week, Russian forces have subjected Ukrainian cities to three consecutive days of heavy shelling. Further, although Lavrov and other Russian Officials have moderated their demands, Putin himself continues to insist his military operation is going exactly to plan and that its full aims will be achieved. At the same time the Russian president’s rhetoric about war and his treatment of domestic dissent have grown increasingly fascistic. Russian people will always be able distinguish true patriots from traitors and just spit them out like a fly that accidently flew in their mouth, Putin said on Wednesday “”Such a natural and necessary purification of the society will only strengthen our country”
The city council of Mariupol reported on Wednesday that a Russian plane dropped a bomb on a theatre where hundreds of civilians had sought shelter
These developments have led to some Ukrainian officials to fear that the Russians concessions are merely a stalling tactic, their true aim being to buy time to regroup the Russian forces before resuming an all out offensive aimed at total victory. And on Thursday, the Kremlin lent credence to such anxieties. In response to reports that major progress had been made in peace talks Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that such accounts were wrong and that Ukrainian negotiators were seemingly in no rush to reach a reasonable compromise.
If Russia’s plan is to use negotiations to wrong foot the Ukrainian military, it is not working very well. While Ukraine’s diplomats sketch the outlines of a peace agreement, its president has been securing stronger air defenses through a series of direct addresses to foreign legislatures. On Wednesday Zelenskyy Implored Joe Biden to be the leader for peace in an address to the U.S. Congress Biden subsequently announced an additional $800m in military assistance to Ukraine as part of a broader $13.6 billion aid package CONGRESS Authorized las week
Part 2
Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said of the proposals for an independent but neutral Ukraine on Wednesday – “ There is absolutely special formulations, which in my view are CLOSE TO AGREEMENT” Lavrov added that, although negotiations have not been easy, there are some hope of reaching a compromise.
Zelenskyy meanwhile, told reporters that Russia’s demands were becoming “MORE REALISTIC”
Nevertheless, if the path to a peace settlement is coming into view, the obstacles arrayed across it are still formidable.
Ukraine officially rejected the Swedish Model of neutrality on Wednesday, with its top negotiator, Mykhailo Podolyak saying “UKRAINE is now in a direct state of war with Russia. As a result, the model can only be Ukrainian and only on legally verified security guarantees.
At first blush, this may seem like a distinction without difference or like mere posturing for Ukrainian nationalists who would chafe at the idea of fighting and dying for “Swedish” neutrality instead of a properly Ukrainian model. But Poldolyak’s concern for verifiable security guarantees is rooted in a well founded skepticism of such assurances. In 1994 Ukraine agreed to forfeit all of the nuclear warheads it had inherited from the Soviet Union, handing over the worlds third largest atomic arsenal to Russia in exchange for written security assurances from the United States, Russia and United Kingdom, each of which swore to respect Ukrainian territorial sovereignty and to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine …. If Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression. Of course, Russia violated this commitment with its invasion and the western nations promise to seek U.N. authorization for intervention on Ukraine’s behalf proved WORTHLESS, given that Russia enjoys veto power over the U.N. Security Council/
Therefore, Ukraine will want a binding promise from some combination of western and neutral powers that they will intervene to defend the nation against any future act of Russian aggression. Whether Putin would be willing to tolerate a peace settlement that leaves Ukraine less vulnerable to Russian coercion than it had before his invasion is uncertain.
Ukrainian opinion looks anything but conciliatory on these points. In a poll taken in early March, nearly 80% of Ukrainians said they were not ready to accept Russian sovereignty over the Donbas, even if doing so guaranteed an immediate end to the war.
Some light reading form EL in Intelligencer Magazine - Part1
For the first time since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine 3 weeks ag, there is hope of peace.
On Thursday, talks between Russian and Ukrainian leaders entered their 4th day. This by itself is auspicious: All previous sit-downs between the 2 sides had been acrimoniously terminated after one day of negotiations. And the talk longevity reflects apparent progress toward a mutually acceptable settlement.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday that Ukraine recognized it cannot join NATO, explicitly forfeiting an objective that had been enshrined in Ukraine’s constitution and that Russia had long demanded an affront to its security interests.
For its part the Kremlin has drastically downsized its official was aims in recent days. When Vladimir Putin first ordered the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian leader called for the overthrow of Zelenskyys government, the dissolution of the Ukrainian military and the installation of a new Russia aligned regime in Kyiv. These objectives were premised on the notions that Ukrainian nationalism was a negligible force and that Russian could conquer KYIV within a matter of days. Ukraine’s strong attachment to Self-determination, the Wests willingness to wage an economic war on Kyiv’s behalf and the under performance of the Russian Militarty quickly rendered Putin’s goals ludicrous.
If Russian were willing to shell Ukraine into rubble and lose tens of thousands of troops, its might be able to topple the Ukrainian Govt . But defending a reviled puppet regime against a perpetual insurgency, while suffering devastating economic isolation, would be a recipe for national self-sabotage, if not suicide. Putin’s refusal to back down from his initial war aims amid his army’s first setbacks called the Russian presidents rationality into question.
But now, the Kremlin is finally moderating its demands in deference to reality. On Wednesday, Russian officials expressed openness to a peace agreement. That would allow an independent Ukraine to maintain its own military as long as it committed to a neutral status akin to AUSTRIA OR Sweden. By pledging neutrality, Ukraine would be obligated to refrain from military conflicts beyond the defense of its own territory against an aggressor. This would bar Ukraine from joining NATO or any other military alliance and prohibit it from intervening in, for example, a hypothetical was between Russian and Georgia or any other regional power. Russian is also asking Ukraine to forswear hosting military bases in its territory. In exchange for these concessions, Ukraine would receive security guaranties from some combination of friendly powers, possibly including the US, UK and Turkey.
Part 2,3,4 to follow
Sorry can't attach the link
Professor Callum Semple - Liverpool STM - BBC News has just promoted the LFT as part of the govt push for 7 days testing using LFT as a highly effective way of people not needing to isolate if pinged as a CC. He confirmed how the Liverpool pilot using LFT as a test and trace method has been adopted Nationally
He validated LFT'S as an important means of control
He also said that LFT daily testing would play a part in peoples psychology around their own confidence in leading a normal life
Now we just need to get on board
Covid is not going away
Today it was announced that all staff working in care homes in the UK will have to take 3 LFT'S every week and 1 PCR test
Approx 600,000 staff work in the care home sector
Simple maths 600,000x3 = 1.8millon tests required each week
Our test is already approved for professional use
Surely we are selling to this market
GLA
Covid: No need to cancel Christmas party plans - Javid
Scotland's national clinical director Jason Leitch told Times Radio people should do a "version of Covid certification" without the law telling them to, by ensuring they are vaccinated but also taking a lateral flow test each time before they attend a social event.
BBC News
The attached link explains the phased process for all 4 trials by the FDA
https://www.cancer.net/research-and-advocacy/clinical-trials/phases-clinical-trials
The prize at the end could be massive but it will take time and money
A record 65,371 daily infections have been reported in the past 24 hours in Germany, and the head of the RKI public health institute has spoken of a “super bleak” prognosis. “We’ve never been as worried as we are now,” said Lothar Wieler, referring to the increasing number of seriously ill Covid patients.
New proposals for Covid measures go before parliament in Berlin today. The three parties working on forming a new government want Covid passes required for buses and trains and in workplaces, and anyone unvaccinated has to take a daily test.
Hi All
Not been here for a while, took profit at 175
At these sub 110 prices, now seems the perfect time IMO to get back in.
Where you jump out is your own risk / profit choice aligned to your own investment strategy.
12 months on from my last investment in Avacta, the company has continued to put in place the building blocks for a successful portfolio of IMO winning medical advances that will change peoples lives
The partnerships have grown on many fronts, opening up several potentially profitable avenues
The Quality marks are in place
The LFD although in a different guise is a viable product that already has professional use with HUA to follow soon
The advances in cancer treatments are potentially life changing with trials up and running
and so on.
I am sure people better than me on this board who can add more and more and more.
As for those who appear impatient with the timescales, relax and chill (I think most of you call them trolls)
What was that film, ah yes Field of Dreams, If they build it they will come
GLA
Posted: September 17, 2020
Company News
Product News
Apologies if already discussed
£1M funding for the development of a quantitative lateral flow Smartphone Reader
Abingdon Health announces £1M Innovate UK funding for the development of a fully quantitative lateral flow Smartphone Reader
AppDX, the lateral flow rapid test reader that received £1M development funding Innovate UK has released £1M to fund a further next generation development of Abingdon Health’s lateral-flow rapid test readout technology; AppDx®. The project will see the enhancement of AppDx® at an accelerated pace to achieve a fully quantitative smartphone-based solution for the lateral flow assay (LFA) market.
AppDx® is cutting-edge software that transforms a Smartphone camera into a self-sufficient, standalone lateral-flow reader. By utilising connectivity within Smartphones, AppDx® then enables data captured from rapid tests to be securely shared via a data cloud to connected stakeholders.
Traditional benchtop readers, or compact instruments used as lateral-flow readers, are far more expensive than the Smartphone alternatives, and tend to have limited scope and need to be returned to the factory for upgrades. AppDx® algorithms, software and security updates can be upgraded remotely minimising disruption for end-users and patients, providing a future proof solution.
There is a need for personalised, decentralised and targeted healthcare to deliver results at the point of use. This approach addresses the increased burden on health care services and budgets. Coupled with this is a greater emphasis on patient-centricity to allow patients to have a greater role in their health management.
I guess this would help with providing dated/documented evidence of a LFT result, be it in a school, workplace or to gain entry into an event. etc
For most events these days - concert - football match - you can either download your ticket and scan it or get the ticket sent to you.
I can see our LFT Antigen test kits being sent out with your ticket
Full instructions given so that you test yourself on the day of the event prior to arrival.
Access only given to those showing a negative test - This could be linked to an APP which would date the test
This process could be repeated for many other activities such as
1. Prior to travelling on a plane
2. Prior to boarding a cruise ship
If the cost is low then this could be added to the price of your ticket
If showing positive then referral to Track n Trace by the venue for follow up
No point in trying to cheat the test by getting someone else to do it - They may be infectious
Just some thoughts
Amazing how the brains of some are so small they cannot read
Clinical Validation is fully in process with LSTM aligned and supported by the CONDOR program
The validation requirements mentioned in the RNS are purely technically related to the manufacturing process which makes perfect sense as it will be new to Abingdon and BBI
Not an expert
Would depend on the setting
1000/time for one process I think
But you could I guess run more than one process if you had enough samples to test
Just a little reminder of the FACTS
AVACTA are now in an advance stage of clinical validation for both the BAMS (Bead Assisted Mass Spectrometry) Assay with US based ADEPTRIX and Saliva based Lateral Flow Test device with CYTIVA (Manufacturer of LFT'S) part of the large DANEHAR group.
Both tests have been accepted in the UK CONDOR program to speed up the process of clinical validation
CONDOR (COronavirus National DiagnOstic Research) is an evaluation platform aimed at creating a single route for evaluation of new diagnostic tests. There role is to take a test into REAL WORLD conditions
As we know one of the more recent Avacta Partnership is with Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (LSTM) - this partnership speeds up the access to LSTM vast network of countries they operate in. This includes over 70 Countries in Africa, Europe and the America's.
The BAMS assay has a proven high degree of specificity and uses existing technical equipment already in place in clinical labs around the world - Mass Spectrometers - this new way of working will speed up the testing process to a gold standard - up to 1000 tests at a time by 1 single technician.
As we know Specificity and Sensitivity are key for the LFT to be successful - this is so that we have as little risk of a false positive as possible.
IMO we need to get away from the concept of 100%
Minimum FDA approval for antigens tests is 80%
A Chinese attempt in the early day was 30%
A 90% result for both would be good enough for me - Yes there is a risk of some false negatives - BUT a low cost test would be a person could be tested more than once say in schools, workplaces and hospitals - 10min result time means the wait for a second test in certain situations would be acceptable if the cost was low.
We have to accept Antigen tests are less sensitive
BUT with the AVACTA LFT it is more likely we will achieve a high result due to the fact the Affirmers are so highly sensitive and under lab test do not become diluted by the mix with any solution that allow the flow across the test strip
We also have to balance the advantages to the Economy and to the world getting back to a reasonable NORM
Advantages of a LFT Antigen test
1. Easy to use at POC
2. No expensive testing equipment required
3. Usable across multiple areas - schools, dentists, doctors, hospitals, events, aircraft, large workplaces
4. No Specialist training required
5. Cheap
6. Easy to manufacture in bulk
7. No reagents required
8. People who are positive can be isolated quickly
9. Antigen test already exist in the medical world for Strep Throat, Influenza, TB, HIV and others
10. Fast and Accurate
Just FACTS not FICTION
GLA
18-06-2020 · Wetherby-based Avacta Group, the developer of Affimer® biotherapeutics and research reagents, and Mologic, a diagnostic development company, have formed a collaborative partnership to develop diagnostic tests against multiple targets of clinical interest for point of care (POC) testing, using Avacta’s Affimer technology
Actually its not FYI
And yes i am invested and confident this will happen
Just did a little research of the competition and all you can sarcastic comment
Let me know when you have the answer
In the background there are a number of other specialist biotech companies following our lead OR working to the same AIM (Forgive the Pun)
Our advantage seems to be that our test is weeks away and we can achieve first mover advantage.
If you google Anteotech.com from Australia they are very much in the game with very similar technology but i feel behind us in the timeline to success (Share price is very low 0.032 Aus Dollars) and they still have no sign ups of key manufacturing partners - except what looks like a LFT OR LFR as they call it
On a positive note - the assay sounds very much like ours with a very high confidence degree of sensitivity.
And to put them in context they have still to set up any medical trials.
If you go to their website they talk about a POC Sars 2 and Flu A /B Lateral flow device - Although the device is not ready yet it will be even more helpful to the medics who treat patients - My wife who is a microbiologist and has said a device that can read all 3 will be even more helpful
Google AXXIN AX-2X-S - This show the LFR and the Reader - Now here is a question how will they read our LFT and record the data for Matts 4 million tests?
Their device looks like you can only feed one LFR at a time (Very Slow process every 15min) Do we know how ours will be read?
I am sure Sir Al is on the case
GLA
Whilst reading the posts related to manufacturing the potential scale of demand could be astronomical.
Even considering some very basic numbers
Approx.
UK - 1.5m Health workers
USA- 9.9M Health workers
Germany 5.6m Health Workers
The rest of the world Health workers ??????
All are point of contract who would need to be tested
The scale of this testing now is small using PCR
If this was only a weekly test - then add the 3 above together and x 52 - 884 000 000 tests per year
GLA
Hi All
Just heard this on BBC News - that the threat level has dropped from level 4 Pandemic to Level 3 Epidemic - Virus is in the community
How do we feel this will affect the share price?
They mentioned testing and track and trace will still be important as we lower the risk level