Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The longer it goes without hearing anything the more significant the contract with Tier 1 supplier becomes. If it turns out to to be worth £10 million over 10 years, then that's fantastic - it's an entire reactor's worth of orders for a decade. But if it's £1 million over 10 years, it's only taking up 1/30th of the new capacity - that's not insignificant, but there'd need to be another 30 contracts of similar size to be running at maximum. As ever (well, nearly) I remain optimistic but I do sometimes wish I'd only recently heard of the company rather than in 2007 or whenever it was.
Some other experiences with heat pumps:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2021/aug/14/at-home-with-a-heat-pump-it-makes-hot-water-when-its-freezing-outside
"A3: We’re very close to signing a long-term agreement with a large German tier-one supplier to Airbus for various A330 A320 20 components and they’re just waiting for some last minute details from Airbus to put into the agreement. "
I know we're all used to the glacial speed of dealing with Airbus, but I bet this contract is now going back and forth between legal departments. You think you're there, but then the contract comes back with an additional clause or a crossed-out clause that had already been defined as non-negotiable.
Yes, it’s impossible to judge the significance of the long term agreement without knowing the £value, although anything long term is good because it’s guaranteed income (you’d think). Until Hardide is making a profit as a matter of routine I think we’re stuck with these share price rises and falls.
I'm sure most people have already got a version of this in their heads, but it's a couple of easy to read diagrams that show a sliding scale of economic viability for future hydrogen use.
https://twitter.com/MLiebreich/status/1397209854863937555?s=20
I would describe that report as a mixed bag. It's great that they're getting Airbus orders, but there are only about 300 A380s in service and most of those are on the ground at the moment so orders there are going to be pandemic permitting. I think in the past people have felt that orders from a particular company or industry sector would prove to be a 'game-changer' for Hardide, but it looks like it's just going to be a long slow grind. Having said that, judging by what's happened in the past the share price might balloon if they could manage a couple of years in profit. In conclusion - give it another 5 years.
Do people have a target share price for Hardide? So a price where you think ‘realistically, that’s probably as good as it’s going to get’?
They must know they’ve got those orders coming in though, surely? I thought their main worry was not being able to keep up with demand. Obviously Covid might have affected those orders of course.
Truro - no problem. I can't pretend I don't overreact sometimes - more often than I should in truth.
Hardide's a tricky one. I think I'm going to sell half and hedge my bets. Rolls Royce, on the other hand - by Dec 31st I won't be holding anything. I'm just holding some at the moment in the hope that an announcement of a deal gives them a bump upwards.
I know next to nothing about their supply chains - I didn't claim I did - but I do know Brexit brings a whole host of uncertainties and if they were hand-on-heart honest, Hardide wouldn't be able to tell you it won't have a deleterious effect. It's impossible for them to predict. The *absolute best* they can hope for is that it doesn't make things worse. But all I'm really doing here is explaining why I'm thinking of selling some of my shares. Ultimately this is a form of gambling and I think the odds are that share prices generally are going to go down in the New Year because Brexit won't bring any benefits and at least short term it's likely to be a disaster. I think Hardide's share price will get caught up in that even if the company itself is unaffected. I'm not offering any criticism of the company.
Truro - I am 100% confident that you have no idea about the full extent of Hardide’s supply chain. But I wish you all the best - and I’ll do what I think is best.
Air freight isn’t part of the point I was making however, coming to supply chains - can we state with any confidence that all the materials Hardide requires for its CVD process will be unaffected by chaos at the ports?
Well, presumably the cost would increase if it had to be air freighted, but my point wasn't about Hardide specifically (which I think I made pretty clear) - it's about the impact of what's coming in January and my belief that it will lead to a decline in share prices. For example, it transpires that Covid didn't really affect Hardide, but the share price went from 60p to less than 15p in a matter of days. No real need for me to reflect - I bought again at 14.97p and I'm merely wondering what might happen in January.
It looks like they've ridden out the year successfully. As they said back in May(?), Covid-19 wasn't having much effect on their business.
Speaking more generally, I am thinking of selling up ahead of the coming Brexit calamity at our ports. I don't know whether that will be a major issue for Hardide specifically, but I can't imagine share prices won't tumble in the new year. I'm just wondering if there isn't an opportunity to buy back in at a much lower price.
I've managed to convince someone to buy some Hardide shares this morning. Literally the first time that's ever happened.
I say 'convince' - I did almost nothing.
I suppose logic dictates the share price should return to February's level and then we'll see what happens from there, but in reality it might require some more good news from Hardide to make that happen.
That reads like an interview but I wouldn't be surprised if Hardide had to pay for that. Not that that's a bad thing from Hardide's perspective.