RE: 5.9p Shareprice?14 May 2024 07:36
KEFI looks compellingly cheap: Valuing Tulu Kapi as a development project at US$1,000/oz of attributable planned production, and Jibal Qutman and Hawiah on attributable resources at US$70/oz gold or gold-equivalent (AuEq), in line with peers, suggests a current valuation for KEFI of 2.9p/share, 4x the current share price. This is conservative; no value is attributed to the potential for more significant underground development at Tulu Kapi, to the vast exploration portfolio in Saudi Arabia, or to the fact that unlike most project developers,
KEFI is close to being funded into production. The market is not yet factoring in the regulatory turnarounds in Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia over the past couple of years. Assuming development of the two projects in Saudi Arabia is staggered, with development commencing after that of Tulu Kapi, then by early-2028, all three of KEFI’s current projects are expected to be in production. A four year valuation factors in attributable production of almost 260,000 oz gold and gold-equivalent pa, including 160,000 oz from Tulu Kapi. Valuing this at US$3,000/oz of production, which is typical for portfolios of African gold producers,
suggests a valuation of 5.9p/share. This is 8x the current share price.