The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
"The fundamental value to KEFI of the three advanced projects is estimated at £372 million (calculated as set out above for Tulu Kapi and ascribing market average metrics to preliminary production projections in respect of the advanced Saudi projects which are still at the pre-Definitive Feasibility Study stage). This valuation indicator is c.12 times KEFI's current share market capitalisation."
Smelly will be busy writing up the webinar as it happens to ask questions as well which is why I posted earlier to nudge people to ask their own. From what I can see in the information given which you totally ignored your are wrong and inline with the same costs or lower. If you do not even understand that there is a difference between debt and equity the impact of money being paid earlier...
Seriously Smelly peddling the same rubbish after I shot down your argument in a previous post. That’s the same kind of level of garbage TCM comes out with.
Again….”US$100 million was to be provided through the issuance of two types of Equity Risk Notes ("ERN"), one type for MNC's with no operations in Ethiopia and another lower-cost ERN for those with accumulated retained earnings in Ethiopian operations. The Company is pleased to report that it can now focus on the lower-cost ERN - fixed at 12% per annum. These notes remain repayable in cash from operations or, as a fall-back, in KEFI equity (at KEFI's election), convertible in year 4 (being year 2 of full production) at the then prevailing KEFI share price.” So only talkng about part of the hundred million and that can be paid back in year two of production and that on a gold price of 1864..
the Equity Risk Note, has been streamlined under the lower-cost approach. Our modelling and production profile for this high-grade open pit gold mine, based on a gold price of US$1,864/oz (versus current spot of US$2,170/oz), shows sufficient cash will have been generated at the proposed time of repayment to repay these ERN in cash at the time they fall due.” Based on a gold price of 1864 then factor in by the time kefi get into production it will likely be closer to 2170 even may be a lot higher than that and the may be able have the money paid of this component back after one year of production not two.
Also ratio of debt to equity from 70:30 to 80:20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUybAcNYpBA helped lower the overall finance cost. “the fact that they came to eighty twenty… because a particular source of capital is attractive to us…effectively allowed us to use more lower cost capital. So thats great.
"All syndicate members have agreed a schedule for all remaining pre-launch tasks including their respective formal approvals ahead of full financial close mid-2024."
"I can also advise the Company has received confirmation from the co-lender Africa Finance Corporation ("AFC") that its approval processes are underway and progressing well for its-intended US$95 million investment, which would provide the balance of the required funding for Project launch."
"Establishment and deepening of operational banking support and working capital sources:
· Ethiopia's largest bank, the Government-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, has established onshore Ethiopian BIRR and US Dollar Project operating accounts and is engaging on providing various working capital facilities as we advance;
· Ethiopia's largest non-Government bank, Awash Bank, has done likewise and has also approved a working capital facility for TKGM. It will initially be drawn to Ethiopian BIRR 35 million (approximately £480,000) and can expand as the launch proceeds; and
· A major international bank, Citibank, is in discussions about opening the offshore operating accounts in London, in accordance with the foreign exchange exemptions granted by the central bank, the National Bank of Ethiopia."
Do not think all those banking arrangement would be happening unless the consortium were confident of the second bank board and credit approvals.
Kefi getting a good deal as multi nationals find it hard to repatriate profits from Ethiopia and kefi can pay back the ERN in cash from future production “These notes remain repayable in cash from operations or, as a fall-back, in KEFI equity (at KEFI's election), convertible in year 4 (being year 2 of full production) at the then prevailing KEFI share price.” and from kefi presentation “The intention to refinance the debt package with conventional corporate finance during the second year of production”
Https://www.kefi-goldandcopper.com/files/announcements/kefi-tulu-kapi-gold-project-launch-update-25mar24.pdf
“A positive development is that recent regulatory changes have facilitated the improvement to the equity funding structure which has lowered overall finance costs. The regulatory changes of note were the foreign exchange exemptions, the increase in the maximum permissible ratio of debt to equity from 70:30 to 80:20 and the deeming as foreign direct investment the re-investment of the local currency (Ethiopian BIRR) retained earnings of multi-national corporations (“MNC”) into new business sectors.”
https://www.barrons.com/news/ethiopia-to-open-up-real-estate-to-foreign-buyers-71c90145
https://birrmetrics.com/ethiopia-to-permit-foreign-home-purchases/
In an effort to attract more foreign capital, Ethiopia will now allow foreign investors to own property for the first time. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) announced the loosening of property ownership laws during a meeting with investors on March 22, 2024.
While Ethiopians and the Ethiopian diaspora have long been allowed to purchase property, foreigners were previously restricted unless investing in approved commercial projects. But PM Abiy said foreigners will now be permitted ownership rights without such obligations.
If you have any questions for investor meet and have not sent them in already get them in now.
Investor meet
Questions
Questions can be pre-submitted until 09:00 on Mon, 25 Mar. You may also have the opportunity to ask questions whilst attending the live presentation.
HtTps://press.et/herald/?p=92874
“Mines State Minster Million Mathewos told the Ethiopian Press Agency (EPA) that the country has discovered over 517 tons of gold deposit in Benishangul Gumuz, Gambella, Oromia and Tigray states while attributing the finding to the geological survey that has been conducted for the last 15 years.
He indicated that the deposit resource would be extracted in the coming years whereas the geological survey activities would continue extensively.
The Ministry in cooperation with stakeholders, is supporting different gold processing companies to develop gold massively, Million said.”
“Likewise, the country is constructing its first huge gold processing plant in Benishangul Gumuz state, he expressed adding that extra gold processing plants would be built in Wellega, Guji, Gambella, and Tigray in the coming two years.”
htTps://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=855217539951262&set=a.465946942211659&locale=en_GB
Furthermore, recent regulatory changes affecting the equity funding structure are expected to lower overall finance costs, including foreign exchange exemptions, an increase in the maximum permissible ratio of debt to equity and investments by multinational corporations of local currency retained earnings deemed as foreign direct investment.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1043850/kefi-gold-reports-further-progress-towards-tulu-kapi-s-mid-2024-financial-close-1043850.html
Really Smelly its part of 100 mill from a much bigger deal that can be paid back years down the line in cash which due to the higher gold price can be paid a lot earlier than expected think you should check your calculator over the eventual costs.
Everyone knows you are desperate to get back in a low price as possible but really.
Multi-national corporations ("MNC") into new business sectors.
Within the development capital budget of US$320 million, US$100 million was to be provided through the issuance of two types of Equity Risk Notes ("ERN"),
The Company can confirm a longstanding and large MNC investor in the ERN has now received initial board approvals. All syndicate members have agreed a schedule for all remaining pre-launch tasks including their respective formal approvals ahead of full financial close mid-2024.
"I am delighted to report the initial board approval of a major local equity-capital provider.
"I can also advise the Company has received confirmation from the co-lender Africa Finance Corporation ("AFC") that its approval processes are underway and progressing well for its-intended US$95 million investment, which would provide the balance of the required funding for Project launch.
"All syndicate members are supportive and are working to ensure final documentation is entered into by mid-2024 to enable full Project launch and drawdown of funds. I look forward to providing further updates as appropriate."
Basically another board approval and the second bank approval is on its way the other board approval is on better terms as well
in Ethiopia and another lower-cost ERN for those with accumulated retained earnings in Ethiopian operations. The Company is pleased to report that it can now focus on the lower-cost ERN - fixed at 12% per annum.
plus lots of detail and the kicker
Conditions Precedent to Signing Definitive Detailed Formal Agreements ("Detailed Documentation"):
· The aforementioned processes are designed to be progressed by the end of May 2024 to the stage that warrants signing of Detailed Documentation between all syndicate members;
Which means more board approvals between now and then.
Https://fastcompanyme.com/news/saudi-arabias-regional-hqs-program-gains-momentum-as-more-firms-set-up-bases/
Launched this year, the program incentivizes companies operating in the kingdom, offering benefits like a 30-year zero percent corporate and withholding tax rate for RHQ activities and a 10-year exemption from Saudization requirements, which mandate a certain percentage of employees to be Saudi nationals…
https://circuit.news/2024/03/21/the-daily-circuit-gulf-ipos-galore-uae-invests-in-africa/
Strong post-listing performance is becoming a signature of the region’s companies – returning an average of 40% to investors – and spurring international interest in IPOs here. Strong investor demand has been bolstered by government reforms, particularly in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, amid a privatization push.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-03-21/these-9-jim-rogers-clips-will-make-you-want-buy-gold
Been here longer than you SB but for chunk of that time kefi had lost JQ and its because of the Saudi prospects I bought in here but now kefi has JQ back and it’s a bigger area and Hawiah and all the exploration areas in Saudi.
In contrast to Ethiopia Saudi has been going fast the last few years, but as you find my views insulting please fell free to say where you see the Saudi prospects on one or two years time.
Thanks Bear another poster mentioned TW has been made an insider again.
Its lunch with a in it. Joking apart think there is a disconnect between shareholders that just want to know when and what can push the shareprice up and are not necessarily looking a year or two years down the track and kefi looking at it from a purely mining perspective of how many mines can we get going several years down the track. Kind of reflects what the market is like now and why the mining sector has been out of favour and the Tech sector and bitcoin in Favour.
Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-20/spot-gold-rises-to-2-200-an-ounce-for-the-first-time
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-eases-from-record-high-amid-risk-on-still-well-bid-around-2-200-mark-202403210400
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-stalls-around-2-150-ahead-of-fed-decision-202403201742
Company should really have emphasized the crucial stages more and not lumped the all the bits together upto full production. Then would not have to explain that launch would come before everyone was moved (even though that should be obvious).
I am just annoyed as anyone else SB over the recent placing and can see where you are coming from as it seems to me the company were caught out and had to do a quick placing to tide them over till TK launch. By getting caught out they lost the momentum that was building extra annoying.
If they had been a bit more on the ball or if they had sourced Saudi money or if they had not made some mistakes in the past or if the had been better at promoting the company so cash raising were less dilutive and common..
It is what it is though and Kefi have three main projects one gold project hopefully on the verge of launching and another not massively behind it in a much easier jurisdiction with a gold price now around 2200 dollars an ounce and a market Cap of a small exploration company that has not found anything.