Member Info for Robjm66

“KEFI ranks very highly in Government attention because its Gold&Minerals JV has the largest exploration team in the country and the next two development projects in review under the recently overhauled Saudi mining authority”

At the same time it looks like the Jibal Qutman gold project will get its licence and that this lowcapital project can look to funding and construction. In our view, the jewel in the crown is Hawiah,

We do not think there is any value given by the market for Hawiah”

I could bore everyone with reams of Ethiopian political stuff (not just the latest bit from one side on twitter) but if you cannot see further than what's happening now or the next couple of days and cannot take a slightly longer view this is probably not the share for you.

Ethiopia coming back from a conflict where they had to strip the regions of every soldier that could carry a gun. Peace talks are imminent and the fighting has already stopped between Ethiopia and Tigray but there is not a magic wand that the Ethiopia can wave to reverse everything overnight. What will happen though is more and more troops will be redirected to the regions and things should settle down.

As for the rebels they will probably try to be a nuisance enough to get a seat at the table and push for some kind of negotiations further along the line.
https://allafrica.com/stories/202204120056.html

If the northern rebels could not topple the Ethiopian government with much greater and better equipped forces then OLA which has been around for decades will not be able to either. Some of the Ethiopian government might think now is the time to crush them with new battle hardened forces but it will sink in that when dealing with guerrilla forces the only really permanent solution is some kind of dialogue.

Some in the Ethiopian government will want to do that hence the release of Oromo opposition member's
https://addisstandard.com/breaking-jawar-mohammed-bekele-gerba-and-others-just-released/
And others are tired of conflict as well on the other side.
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/OXAN-DB270864/full/html

Summary of proactive interview

Effectively in KSA held up by red tape last six months unblocking many now talking about Saudi. This week four drill rigs PFS will be finished this year already bigger than TK.
Gold discovery that has been held up (JQ) kefi being told to get on with it, we need the formal paperwork but preparing final feasibility study so we can start construction and get that into production very quickly.

Feasibility study for Hawiah by the end of the year drilling results in the interim. Final feasibility study for Jibal Qutman by the end of the year also. Financing and development in the new year financing in KSA not a challenge the money is in the country we are very prominent in the country and held in high regard by the government. Will be string of milestones as we grow the ore bodies.

In Ethiopia the syndicate has agreed to the kick off umbrella agreement. Meetin next week in Addis Ababa by the banks and the government next week to make sure everyone is happy so that's all moving forward as well.

Sequence of project coming online..kefi changing into a developer then it will be a mid tier producer.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/copper-project-pipeline-project-shortage-to-see-supply-lag-demand-post-2025
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/biden-administration-kills-antofagastas-minnesota-copper-project-2022-01-26/#main-content

https://investorintel.com/markets/technology-metals/technology-metals-intel/biden-admin-moves-to-kill-alaska-copper-project/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2021/09/17/will-the-copper-deficit-derail-the-renewable-revolution/?sh=3e162386775f

hxxps://intellinews.com/copper-prices-set-to-rise-as-supply-lags-247551/
https://www.mining.com/copper-mining-like-politics-is-now-the-art-of-the-possible/
https://www.investing.com/commodities/copper

https://www.kefi-minerals.com/files/presentations/kefi-mine-africa-presentation-14june22.pdf

Looks good for progress this month.

https://www.eyeradio.org/calm-returns-to-gambella-town-after-govt-troops-rebels-clash/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/14/ethiopias-abiy-says-body-formed-to-negotiate-with-tigray-rebels

Security should improve as the government can free up more troops for the regions.

OLA been around since 1974 they usually might take over a town for a day or a couple of days then be pushed out.

More of a problem obviously when all the government troops had to fight Tigray in the north easy to take territory when there is no one to defend it.

Now government troops are being redirected back to the regions obviously going to be clashes as the rebels try to keep their influence.

No one is saying there is zero security aspect in Ethiopia but got to be aware whether is government media, rebel media or just a friend they often have a bias towards one side or the other.

Rebels are not going to be wiped out but their influence will be reduced as more troops can be sent to regions as the peace process gathers pace with Tigray.

OLA has been pushed out of nearly all the towns it held after the high water mark of the TPLF advance.

The fighting was nowhere near TK but in Gambella harder there for Ethiopian forces as they have to deal with two guerrilla forces in (OLA and GLF) and the rebels can melt away into the national park and across the border into south Sudan.

https://mapfight.xyz/map/oromia/ Think some people simply do not have any idea of the size of Ethiopia or Oromia region.

https://press.et/herald/?p=55314#:~:text=Ethiopia%27s%20virtually%20untapped%2C%20diverse%20and,industrial%2C%20energy%20and%20construction%20minerals

Now the conflict with the north has died down Ethiopian government will shift troops to the regions and increase security there. Already plans in place to have extra focus on security in mining areas.

Read these two and you should get an idea of where the company is now. In short to hit higher valuation need Tuli Kapi go signal, then Jibal Qutman take off longer term price likely to be driven by Hawiah and other big prospects in Saudi.
https://www.kefi-minerals.com/files/announcements/kefi-annual-report-2021-website.pdf
https://www.kefi-minerals.com/files/files/Orior-Capital-KEFI-The-brakes-are-off-April22a.pdf

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/984261/kefi-gold-and-copper-plc-advancing-on-three-fronts-984261.html
Video commentary summary
Company in the middle of transforming itself…shovel ready project in Ethiopia..closing this month leading to definitive agreements. Over in Saudi Arabia…one project to compete DFS by the end of this year Jibal Qutman the other much bigger Hawiah. Value and NPV of the three projects not yet recognized by stock market.
Milestones…Umbrella agreement this month means all in.. then definitive agreements.
Second milestone Jibal Qutman dragged forward regularity process sped up. Construction of JQ early in the new year
Third milestone Hawiah still growing. Pipeline of three development projects
--
Interesting that Harry is in Saudi hopefully means some good news from there if he has dragged himself over there while still looking a bit green about the gills to me after his bout of covid.

I am positive on kefi but even I recognize that there is scepticism over TK getting over the line hence the huge disparity over the present market cap and what it should be. If or more hopefully when it does think even those that do not like the management can see that it will rerate and and those that have adapted a wait a see approach will quickly pile in.
https://www.kefi-minerals.com/files/presentations/kefi-uk-investor-show-presentation-21may_22.pdf
Look at slides 5 and 6 and there is a big disparity over what kefi should be.
So obviously it will spike. A bit longer term your going to have other spikes as the huge Saudi prospects come into play that have been overshadowed by Ethiopia in the past.

https://www.kefi-minerals.com/files/announcements/kefi-annual-report-2021-website.pdf

Claire you will get a better discussion of the pro and cons after the next bit of news drops. Usually get a bit of news after the company updates the mining ministry on progress around the end of the month so would hope for some news next week after Jubilee celebrations are out of the way.

TPLF in the north do not look like a factor anymore for kefi though maybe the biggest worry was only sanctions. Had increasing aid convoys to Tigray TPLF been less critical of the government recently and rumours that secret talks have been going on for sometime. The reality is Tigray needs the food aid to stop its people from starving and any gains from fighting would be outweighed by the economic cost to both sides. Government will now be trying to shift troops to other parts of the country to increase security in the regions.

Al shabab mainly a problem in Somalia. Ethiopian Christians more than twice as numerous as Muslims. Fault lines in Ethiopia mainly along tribal regional lines. Ethiopia probably targeted as they contribute a lot of troops to the peace keeping force there and Al shabab wanted them not to contribute soldiers to the new force that will be formed.
Al shabab influence had been shrinking in Somalia but had the combination of trump pulling American troops out, political transition and the forces the needing reforming and re organizing.
https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/somalia-enters-transition-as-amisom-gives-way-to-atmis-3738158
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3496403-redeploying-us-troops-to-somalia-is-the-right-move/
https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/05/1118292