Member Info for RobertoLarcos

The norm for serious/large companies listed in the main market is to publish quarterly reports and update the market regularly. ASOS used to be in the FTSE 250 once upon a time.

Well maybe that's why the SP hit rock bottom and stayed there, they don't trust these clowns running the company

That's ridiculous... So shareholders are supposed to be in the dark for 6+ months?

No one has answered the question of this thread, and the stock is still not moving

Seems like they are winning here, for over a year now 💪💪

You have every right to be frustrated... it's been a painful journey with this one

Https://ibb.co/F6w5m2L

Yeah then why is it not moving. Are we gonna see another dilutive equity raise?

Is the SP going to move or are we staring at a takeover at £4 a share?

W0rd

So it's all gambling then.

But I think specifically for this one it's not even gambling, because when you gamble you have a chance to win but here you don't.

GLA DYOR

So we all agree that this one's a dog?

Given how stable the price has been for a year now between £3.50 and £4, and with little hope for that to improve in the medium term, I expect a takeover bid at slightly above the equity raise last year, at c.£4.50 which a 20%+ premium to the current price.

Thoughts?

Another sad day for ASOS.. praying for rain lol

Aren't we all giving our opinions? Difference is mine are supported by detailed analysis and solid arguments. Outlook is stark.

You should listen.

It won't

Based on fundamental analysis and a valuation model that I developed. And yes I did read the last results and recall a 25% revenue decline in the US (in an inflationary market even).

That's why I'm saying return to double digit growth (as a vote of confidence from consumers) is a prerequisite for any appreciation in value. ASOS is not there currently and outlook is stark.

I really don't know... but I believe there's 3 likely outcomes:

1) Turnaround works - ASOS back in fashion: Return to profitability (3% FCF margin), back to double digit top line growth including the US (this is very important). Evidence that SHEIN does not capture further market share from ASOS and competition eases. Material reduction in net debt and successful refinance in 2 years under more favourable terms. 100%+ increase to current share price

2) Opportunistic take over bid - Mediocre performance continues and someone snaps up ASOS at a low valuation (e.g. between £4-£5 a share), offer is accepted as no other better alternative and refinance looming

3) Turnaround plan goes sideways, and no credible alternative in place. ASOS taken over by creditors or another equity raise at a significant discount wipeing out existing s/g

Question is how much probability you assign to each outcome. I think ASOS is closer to 2) now with equal probabilities moving either to 1) or 3)

So to get things straight.. you're not an economist, you have no background in finance, you are lazy with calculations (your words not mine) BUT - you have a theory that inflation should be calculated over 50+ year period and you also predict that inflation won't reach 2% for another 10 years.

I rest my case

Sorry 10 years