Goldman (TP 275, SELL RATED)30 Sep 2025 17:57
News: ASOS released its FY25 trading update, with lower than expected GMV, and group revenue slightly below consensus (company compiled -8.4%), gross profit margin up c.350bp yoy, and adjusted EBITDA towards the lower end of the guidance (£130mm - £150mn). Free cash flow in FY25 ahead of broadly neutral guidance (consensus £7mn), ASOS' Test & React model reached >20% of own-brand sale, and flexible fulfillment reached 10% of third-party GMV. FY26 guidance introduced: FY26 adj EBITDA/FCF in-line with consensus (c.£173mn/c.£8mn).
Implications: We decrease FY25E adj.EBITDA to £130mn (from £140mn), driven by -10.9% cFX sales growth (from -8.1%), and lower adj EBITDA margin to 5% (from 5.3%), reflecting fixed overhead gearing, despite a better 46.9% gross margin (from 46.4%). Given the group's lower sales momentum, we reduce FY26E cFX sales to -1.1% (from +0.4%), driving £162mn adj.EBITDA (from £169mn). Our financial assumptions are set out within. TP to 275p (from 305p);
Sell rated.