Member Info for rob229

Hi Dan, Your 27.02.2014 post on this quiet board is welcome. The day was very busy. I have not yet had a chance to evaluate ACD, but the information that you cite regarding ACD deserves close attention. I may not have a chance to study it 'til the weekend, but I will study it. Thank you for bringing it to my attention. I wonder whether you have had occasion to encounter a poster on www.lse.co.uk whose pen name is Dibs61. I find mining shares harder to evaluate than shares in some other sectors. And the vagaries of commodity price trends are, for me, impossible to master. In any event, Dibs61 seems confident about Charaat Gold. I forget whether the symbol is CHG or CGH (probably CGH, it looks more correct). Either way, it is a share that may be worth studying. I feel as though Dibs51 has made a study of Chaarat Gold rather as you have done with regard to BMN. I mentioned to CP22 within the past day or so that I generally disfavor companies in the gambling sector. I had bad timing in BPTY perhaps two years ago. I probably would stay away from Webis even if it looked more reasonably priced. Am not against MLC. I assume it is Millennium & Copthorne, which is known here too. I am not sure it has the upside potential that I usually try to find, but I will give it a look. Rather an institutional-type share, I think. I suppose it is not easy for me to cite a unifying characteristic to the shares that I favor, but I know them when I see them. Sometimes I think that, by turning over a sufficient number of rocks, I may sense, a bit ahead of the crowd, a share that is about to trade higher on an improving story. I know I like rising revenues and directorate purchases, and I am much intrigued when I find positive cash flow from operations even when the net income figure has not yet turned positive. I have a concern that the rising market in which investors find themselves may reverse before long. I hope that, in the event that there is a change in trend, none of the smart investors here will be caught. Rob229

I see that Bessie has only recently joined the lse.co.uk site. I welcome you. I commend you for locating the error that a poster made here earlier today. I am not able at this moment to refute every point that was made by that poster. I will say this: I should double check my figures, but for now, I will say only that I believe that the tangible book value of each AVAP share is 125p per share using a USD to GBP conversion ratio of 1.67. Considering that the aircraft-leasing business has considerable barriers to entry and considering that Avation plc possesses other virtues including but not limited to the modest PE as you noted, I agree with you that it is not overpriced. Regards and happy trading. Rob229

I am not claiming to have intensively studied the RNS. I think that Mr Clogheen is a shrewd investor. I say this because I have read some posts of yours elsewhere on www.lse.co.uk. Still, I respectfully question your suggestion that the share price may weaken to the 26-28 range. I encourage all CSSG shareholders to look at the statement of cash flows. On an operating basis, I see figures that look favorable to me. Please understand that I have not completed my evaluation. Good luck to all. Rob229

I remember that you, Dan, asked today where one might find the information as to purchases by directors. If you click the red tab "News" on the top of this page, then Regulatory News which will appear in blue thereunder, then Directors' Dealings, you will see the reports in chronological order. From there, the process is somewhat laborious. The buys, the sells, the gifts to spouses and children, the option exercises, and so forth are all noted as Directors' Dealings. Therefore, many of the filings are somewhat uninteresting. Maybe our new correspondent knows a method that screens more efficiently for purchases. All I ask is that you fine gentlemen help the London market to trade in the blue for the several hours that I will be asleep for the night. [I have heard of some obsessed Americans who say that they wake up at 3 am Monday through Friday in order to be tuned in, but I am not one of them.] Rob

Prior to reading your post, Trev, I had never heard of IKA. I gave it a quick look just now. The concept sounds terrific. I wonder whether you are concerned that some large holders reduced their positions after the interim report was published. I think I saw four reductions following the publication of the interim report. When I read the interim report, I had a guarded expectation that the opposite would have occurred. As you, Trev, had written, an investment in this name is not based on figures at this early stage on figures, but I did not see a reason for the ostensible disappointment among those four large holders. Plainly, the market likes the story because the share price did not weaken after the interim report. So perhaps the trimming by the institutions was just a little "top slice" after the rise to the 70p range. If so, I suppose the reductions were normal. I did not see that any of the institutions have exited the name. Maybe you have a technical background. Perhaps in reliance thereon you have more than a feeling that the IKA product is going to succeed. I found AMED only recently. I am happy to make the acquaintance of an investor who has followed the company for a long time. Probably not my place to ask, but on behalf of anyone who is not invested there, I propound the question as to whether you assess the risk-reward ratio as favorable enough to warrant a purchase in the 1.30 range? Do you think we will see 2p within the next six months? You mentioned Qatar Investment Authority. I think we agree that a controlling shareholder like that is a good thing for the rest of us. I got interested yesterday in AVCT. It ticks several boxes for me, but I am not feeling sufficiently articulate this evening to say what those are. Perhaps tomorrow. BTW, which Australian state are you from? Regards to all, Rob229

I tried to post about 20 minutes ago. For some unknown reason, my message went away before I could click post. So I have to start over. I was welcoming Mr Trevally, asking whether you now reside in England. I wished to say that I have been to your beautiful country. A place of which to be very proud. (If I may be so bold, I ask which part of the country do you come from? For sure, I am an admirer of England too, although the weather is often a little less favorable. Not every American recognizes England as the mother country, and I suppose that my views are faintly ambivalent. It is probably not wise to go into details at this juncture. The important thing for now is to extend a cordial greeting to our new SYQ investor. I am looking today for a bit of sympathy for having missed CFHL by one penny. I sometimes do as Mr Trevally does. I like to follow the filings of purchases by the directorate. I also like to follow large purchases of small-cap, obscure names by professional money managers who seem competent to me. That is how I discovered both CFHL (which I missed so far) and SERV, in which I have a position. SERV had a good day. I think it was a money management firm in Zurich to which I was orienting myself when I became interested in both CFHL and SERV. By the way, I am from the US, so I do not have the high-quality access to the market buzz in London that you gentlemen have, but I regard the AIM market as a terrific market. With regard to metals and mining, the three of us seem to be in accord generally. A risky sector, and an opaque sector. I made an exception for BMN thanks to Dan (a/k/a Libero), and I wish I had also made an exception for SOLG. I think that one has gotten away from me. I wonder, Mr Trevally, whether you have a target for AMED; or do you intend just to follow the fundamentals and see where they take us? Yesterday, I mentioned CRV. I think it might meet some of the parameters that you gentlemen favor. I am not even sure I know where it closed today, but as of yesterday, I still liked it! I have been there for about a week. I am happy to have Dan's confidence vote regarding SIM. I have respect for some of the accomplishments of corporations that have been started in Israel, and SIM is, as I recall, one such corporation. But the story has a lot more going for it than its home office. Maybe its home office is now in England, not even sure. I found SIM a few weeks ago because it is a holding reported by the Herald Investment Trust. Regards, Rob229

I guess this bb has grown quiet. I forget whether it was this bb or another on which I was criticized for mentioning other shares. Maybe it will happen again. Re BMN, I did see the advice of the poster who thinks that the entry of a sell order, even at a limit well above the market, may mean that the shares cannot be borrowed by a short seller. I had never thought that the entry of a sell order might have this effect. I see that other posters are no more certain than am I as to whether the plan would make it harder to find shares for shorting, but I suppose there is no harm in trying. My only concern is that the broker's software may not accept an order that is, say, 100% above the market. I think you see that I have an inclination to be overly diversified. In addition to the CAP news, I like the SIM news of 24.02.2014. This company is involved in flight training. It announced an agreement with a group in China. The larger point is that my methodology is not so easy to define. Sometimes, I say that I just like to "turn over rocks" and try to find some gems lurking under those rocks. You are right that the idea of limiting one's choices to application of the EV/EBIT formula will cause you to exclude companies that have no positive EBIT. Strict application of the rule would leave you without shares in some promising AIM shares. I haven't access to all the SYQ figures as I type this message, but I do not think SYQ has any EBIT yet. So I infer that you allow yourself some exceptions to the rule. I like companies in which the ratio of revenues to market cap is close to 1:1 or even greater than 1:1, but this ratio is worth very little without a healthy profit margin. So I diverge from this rule if I think there is ample reason to do so. BTW, I think you are an excellent writer and a knowledgeable investor. Your disquisition on BMN a week or so ago caused me to think seriously that I should not avoid that mining company just because I had decided quite a while ago to exit the sector. I think each of the people here needs to be aware that markets seem to be in a favorable phase and that that phase may not remain indefinitely in place. Sentiment may prove itself to be fragile. I am not predicting a sudden change, but I try not to be complacent. Time for me to take the rest of the night off. Regards, Rob229

I think you may agree with me that the 7-share buy might be an erroneous report. How could a trade be effected with a value of 11p? The better news is that there may have been, a little later in the day, a 700,000-share purchase of BES shares. I express myself tentatively with the words "may have been" because I suppose one can never be sure whether a trade is a buy or a sell. I have not been able to figure out why we are experiencing a little weakness here. The story seems good, the shares seem attractively priced. I urge any prospective buyers to research independently. I consume spirits not more than one evening every few weeks, so what do I know? Still, I sense good things here. I sense that BES have good management. Moreover, we have in BES a market cap which is modest for a consumer-products company that seems to have had both brand awareness and some good successes to date. Good luck to you, sir, and to all who are invested in this share. (BTW, I write from across the pond. The NY market opened strongly this morning. Let's see whether the ripple effect will be significant for the week in all properly regulated markets.) Rob229

My impression is that the character-counting mechanism may be slightly incorrect. The last few words of my post from 24 minutes ago were clipped. The missing words which I typed after "talent for" were as follows: true success. I wish good luck to all SYQ investors. Anyone who may wish to show me why, in his or her judgment, CRV is less promising than I am thinking, I would cheerfully read your post. Rob229

The SYQ bb seems to be the right combination of activity and inactivity. The postings here are not so abundant that they are likely to fall away quickly from the main page. On my side of the pond, the lingo does not include "top up" and "top slice," but these two terms seem intuitive to me. I am quite sure I know what each term means. So I will say that I just topped up at BMN. I forget whether it shows as an uncrossing trade or something else, but I have an execution within the past hour @ 4.95p. Thirty minutes' effort both @ 4.88p and @ 4.90p did not get me an execution, so I decided to try harder to get a "top-up." As for SEE, I am not sure whether I knew that Jolly Speculator is involved, but we agree that it is his general practice to bring wisdom to www.lse.co.uk. I am glad to be in good company. Another chap on the SEE bb brought to my attention on or about 31.01.2014 that Miton Group had recently taken a position in SEE. If you have an interest, I can show you where the Miton Group documentation. That group seems to be impressed by the arrangement that is in place between SEE and Caterpillar. I worry a little that the market cap for SEE is over 60 million GBP, and the revenues are modest. As with so many AIM shares, one makes a decision to buy because one thinks the future is looking good. There is news at CAP today. It involves the motor fleet for Sainsbury plc. I note your cautionary views with regard to AVN. I appreciate your bringing your concern to the attention of others. Maybe I will be sorry, but I still like the story because I see satellite communications as high growth. Every time you see a news reporter on television from Kiev or Johannesburg or some other distant place, a satellite is in use. Maybe this is not a stunning observation. Still, my feeling is that the demand for instant video from the larger world is enormous. Think about it: only scholarly people in the 21st century seem motivated to buy a newspaper so as to read the story written by the print journalist who has been assigned by his newspaper to cover Kiev or Johannesburg. Thus, my interest in the satellite industry. I close for now with a tangible book-value story. The company is called Craven House, symbol CRV. If you read the recent news, the shares seem undervalued by more than 50%. This company makes investments when the seller will allow CRV shares to be valued @ 1.25p. CRV regards 1.25p to be the fair value, and the sellers seem willing to accept the valuation even though the market price is lower. Please verify the financials independently. I found that the major force at CRV is very well-credentialed, especially for a small company. I may have found CRV by clicking on the prior posts of the wise lady investor at OMIP. (I am not always sure about the provenance for my investing choices.) I enjoy your posts, so please remain a prolific contributor. You display a talent for

Good day on Sunday to CP22, Before I write about RUR, I say -- I hope that yesterday was a real celebration. Back to business! RUR is a power hydroelectric power co. that owns power plants mainly in Latin America. You probably know about the major scuffle in which it finds itself vis-a-vis the Bolivian state. If the arbitration award issued in The Hague is paid by the Bolivian state, then RUR shares are sure to rise. It is clear that the market lacks confidence that the arbitration award will be paid. People may be pleased that (a) some officers of RUR have added to their positions and that (b) Miton Group appears to have a meaningful position in in RUR. Still, I am risk-averse where governments are adverse parties. Not sure whether they say in England "You can't fight city hall." That has for a very long time been a popular saying here. I will probably stay far away from RUR. On the other hand, I wonder whether the story has intrigued you. Plainly, the risks are high but so are the potential rewards. Another saying which is occasionally heard here [and which was included in a post on the RUR bb] follows: "It's a long way to Tipperary." Rob229

Happy Birthday to CP22. My very best to you. I knew that "22" is the day, but I did not know that "2" is the month. Before many holidays were switched to the nearest Monday here, 22 February used to be celebrated as the birthday of George Washington. I am sure you know that he was the first president of the U.S. I have not looked for a long time, but I am 99% sure that he was born of English parents. I think he was born in 1732. Thanks to you, I remember now why I may stay away from Webis. I tried to make money with BPTY a year or two ago. I have had other difficulties with the gambling sector. Crowded, but fashionable are correct descriptors for the sector. I am a live-and-let-live person, but I am somewhat contemptuous of gambling. I realize that the house always wins, so it should be a good place to invest. Somehow, I have had multiple difficulties there. It is as though the market gods seem to know that I am somewhat opposed to gambling. I also disapprove of lottery tickets. I feel that they seduce poor people into sacrificing their hard-earned money. On the other hand, I have a funny saying about investing in shares. I call it "gambling while wearing a necktie." I think of the many shares that I have purchased while seated in my office either chatting with a broker or staring at the computer. BTW, I am a semi-retired lawyer, so I do not spend much time in offices these days. Regards . . . and again, Happy Birthday. Rob229

Our CRV just can't seem to find favor with investors, but I think its day will arrive before long. I am hoping that the week treated you well. My portfolio ended the week with some blue and some red. Nothing new about that! Are you involved in WEB? I am not so familiar with the co. If so, I wonder whether you think it is attractively priced here. Maybe you would take a little time to say why. On the recommendation of Mr Libero, I bought a little BMN a few days ago. It is up a little. It has certainly not risen much, so if you like the story, it may still be attractive. I generally stay away from mining companies, but I took a chance. Another mining story that interests me [and which seems to be popular at www.lse.so.uk] is SOLG, but it rose before I could enter an order. I think I have to let it go. The market cap is over 50 million GBP, and that seems to me to be very high for a mining story without revenues. The prospects may be very good, but the market seems to have priced it accordingly. On my own, I am looking for a wise investor like you to express views about a recently floated share, CFHL. It may look expensive. The initial price ~ 5 weeks ago was 60p. Now about 15% higher. This mission of this company is to compete with BT by offering the better kind of broadband fibre in UK cities other than London, which already has (I believe) the most advanced fibre for internet connections. I wonder whether you have any familiarity with CFHL. Maybe not fair of me to make this a long message. Still, I would welcome any thoughts that you are of mind to post. I appreciate that you may wish to respond to the topics mentioned by me or mention others that are of interest to you today. Thank you for your consideration. I see no need to worry about the criticisms of others. This is likely to remain a quiet board. Regards, Rob229

I did not notice until now the encomium which was included in your 9:51 message. I assure you that the decorum on this bb was in place before I arrived here. If I have contributed a little to the decorum, well, I will accept a small bit of credit for having done so. You have described MOS as your horror story. Each and every experienced investor here should be empathic. [I once owned shares in a little U.S. company which had SINC as its ticker symbol. I used to say to the friend who bought it when I bought it "Remember SINC? It sank."] Almost any poster here could, almost surely, relate a similar story in his or her investing history. I characterize the MOS fall from 60p to 30p as having occurred on account of an unforeseeable, exogenous event. If there is any lesson to be derived, it is simply that Argentina is an emerging market. [Even though MOS is quoted in London, its disproportionate Argentine revenue stream makes MOS almost like a foreign share.] As you surely know, the risks are always higher in emerging markets. Amusingly, some of the chatterers on my side of the pond like to describe stock exchanges like that in Argentina as "submerging markets." I believe that MOS will be ok. Please be patient, my friend. Most importantly, I counsel you not to allow the temporary paper loss to undermine your confidence in that which you do very well. Rob

Good evening Mr MTK, This has been quite a lonely board. You and I may be in agreement: that the RNS earlier this week is favorable. Odd that there seemed to be no buying interest in AVAP shares until today. I infer that you are a wise investor. I just took a quick look at your PRW post. I am sensing an interesting share and a shareholder who understands the company. PRW appears to be something important for me to evaluate at the weekend. I wish you success both here and there. One good thing about this quiet board . . . if you choose to mention a couple of your other favorites, no one is likely to criticize you for mentioning shares other than AVAP. For sure, we agree that AVAP is an attractive bet. I am a shareholder writing from across the pond. I am happy to contribute ideas too. Always interested in sharing ideas with wise investors. Regards, Rob229

I see that some of the shrewd investors here are in accord with me. Mr Libero has brought his powers of perception both to this board and to BMN. In other words, you have numerous fans here, not just one speculator from across the pond. The pleasure for me has been to realize that I have been somewhat skillful in being able to learn who are the brainy investors at www.lse.co.uk, and yes, Dan is high on that list. The amounts invested are immaterial. Dan, you bring art and science, intuition, knowledge, understanding and perseverance to this business. The gentleman who mentioned yesterday that everyone is polite on this bb -- a great observation. I hope it stays this way. I have not cross-checked all of the posts on SEE and this board. I have a feeling some of the brainy people here are following SEE too. The news today is that the offering of additional shares was ten times oversubscribed, and now the shares are moving back to the 9p level. I am interested to know who among those here may be following SEE. A microcap that I am holding is SNTY. Also wondering whether people here are following CFHL, which was floated about 5 weeks ago. Dan, you mentioned that SOLG is not on your screen. I stayed away because I missed it under 9.50p. I wonder whether some here think it is a share to buy next week in the 10-11 range. I sense that the news is getting better and better. I am not a mining person, but I think I may be smart enough to understand what mineralization means! I had strong feeling about SOLG in the 8.25p range, but for me, liquidity was limited at that point. BTW, I realize that mentioning other shares displeases some. I hope I will be allowed a little latitude now that the market has closed for the week. Wishing all here a fine weekend. Rob229

seconding the message of Mr Elite (a terrific pen name, BTW). Perhaps you, Dan, have remained in town and celebrated by having dinner at the Savoy Hotel. You asked the other day when I bought some BMN. Answer: 17.02.2014. I have also had an eye on SOLG. Tried to buy under 10p during the last hour of the day. The MM would not let me in. You are a mining expert; so I am thinking that this one is probably on your radar screen. It is a widely followed AIM share. Market cap is 3x larger than that at BMN, so to me, the risk is higher. Still, some smart people seem to like the improving story. To Dan, the man, a day's end, my regards. Rob

Busy day here, but I think I see that tangible equity at OMIP rose in the space of one year (Oct. '12 to Oct. '13) from 190,000 GBP to >700,000 GBP. You seem to have covered everything else. I wish the market had, in the short term (i.e. 19.02.2014), agreed with us; but I am a patient person. My crystal ball is showing me > 27p within the next ten months. We are in accord with CRV. I do feel bad if you are over-invested there, but if you think you have found something special, the holding of a larger-than-usual position is very tempting. In my message tonight at approximately 23:26 on TLDH, I typed my thoughts on ARTA. If I were to try here to re-type my thoughts about ARTA here, I would probably do so in a less useful way. I also mentioned ABDP and AVN. I do not know whether you are looking for additional investments. ABDP does not seem too risky. I thought that the 19.02.2014 press release is favorable. I am in the red there, but the story feels promising. My short-term error may be nothing worse than a short-term timing error. That is what I presently think. AVN is a different type of story, perhaps well-known to you. My thinking is that AVN may be a rather widely followed AIM-listed company. Libero thinks it is expensive on the basis of price to sales, but I am not in agreement on that point. Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts on Wednesday. Wishing a restful night to a shrewd stock-picking lady. Regards, Rob229

... eat their own cooking." I wonder why the end of the message gets cut off. That happened to me once before over here. It is fun for me to be subject to cross-examination. I hope you will not worry about stepping on toes. I wish you further gains in the new day. I should look at that share you like, VIP. I had no time to look while the market was open on Wednesday. Regards, Rob229

It is not my agenda to convert anyone to the merits of this or that share. It's ok that you regard AVN as expensive. I think that a closer look will show you that the ratio of price to sales is not quite so extreme as you had said. For the half year ended 31.12.2013, AVN had impressive revenue growth, up 81% I think. Revenue was 25 mil. USD, so by way of extrapolation, that is 50 mil. USD annual revenues on a full fiscal-year basis, equivalent to ~ 30 mil. GBP on a market cap slightly in excess of 200 mil. GBP. I have in the past evaluated shares of other satellite companies, including SES Global, quoted in Luxembourg. Satellite companies always trade expensively. I suppose the reasons are (a) that the barriers to entry are high and (b) the perceived need for satellite services is great. I am not saying that the sector is an oligopoly, but my impression is that satellites are much in demand. So I like the story. Tangible book value at AVN is ~ 185 per sh. As for ARTA, I am trying to remember which investment manager owns 5%. It is either Herald Investment Trust or IS Partners ("Helium"), Zurich. I just do not remember at the moment; but each is, to my eye, a quality organization. I also note that ABN-Amro is a holder of > 9% of ARTA shares. ABN-Amro is at present under the watchful eye of the Dutch state. ARTA does business with the telecoms in Belgium and the Netherlands. The new CEO has a distinctly Dutch surname, although I cannot recall the exact name at the moment. One might say that my favorable view of ARTA is based on an impression. I think that ARTA will prosper because, inter alia, the "powers that be" have a keen interest in its success. Although I haven't the numbers at my fingertips this evening, it does not look like an expensive share to me. Your point about the presentation of the accounts may well be worth further consideration. I thank you for holding up a caution flag. I think MOS had a revival after you expressed concern at 14:18. Funny, I know that the Canadian $ was weak today. (I hold numerous Canadian shares.) But maybe the Argentine peso revived. I did not look. One shrewd observer on the MOS bb made the point that, if many of the expenses of MOS are denominated in the same currency as the revenues, the adverse impact of the depreciated currency should be mitigated thereby. This makes sense to me. I do not claim to have reread the annual report in search of a statement re the effect of a fall in the Argentine peso. Another share I feel I should mention -- and it may be a 2d mention -- is ABDP. I am fairly sure that I had said perhaps 4-5 days ago that it seems to have bottomed at 150p. Today, the market likes the preliminary report that ABDP issued. The public float is limited here. I suppose there are two schools of thought as to whether that is good or bad. To me, a low float is good. I like to invest in companies in which the directorate "eat